USN Starved of SSNs: 3 for Australia Unlikely.

WINDOW DRESSING

The "Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS" of March 13th (14th in Australia) 2023, contained President Biden's intention:

"Starting in the early 2030s, pending Congressional approval, the United States intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed."

Noting, even if Biden wins the 2024 Election he can only remain President until January 2029. It will be up to another president to provide for a USN that is seeing its number of SSNs fall beneath the bare minimum needed of 50. 50 or less for the USN will not be enough to handle the increased number and rise in quality of China's SSNs and SSBNs.

With the rolling average of all 50 already earmarked for the USN Biden's intention of selling 3 of those 50 to Australia is but political window dressing to keep the remote hope of AUKUS submarines alive. Hope until the 2040s when UK designed SSN-AUKUS's might actually become available to Australia. 

Biden's window dressing is something US reqirements and an US production rates  cannot meet - see below. 

USN NEEDS AND US PRODUCTION REALITIES

Key advice for the US Government on the USN’s SSN needs is the Congressional Research Service’s “Navy Virginia…Class Attack SubmarineProcurement: Background and Issues for Congress” Number RL32418, dated September 29, 2021.

“…A key issue for Congress concerns the SSN force-level goal and procurement rate. The Navy’s current force-level goal, which was released in December 2016, calls for…66 SSNs. On December 9, 2020, the Navy released a long-range Navy shipbuilding document that called for 72 to 78 SSNs…On June 17, 2021, the Navy released a long-range Navy shipbuilding document that calls for 66 to 72 SSNs.

Under the Navy’s FY2020 30-year (FY2020-FY2049) shipbuilding plan, SSNs would be procured at a steady rate of two per year...” 

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Separately John Grady for USNI reported in part, April 20, 2023: 

"...Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro told House appropriators that the Virginia-class attack boats program is “significantly behind” schedule.

The Navy’s plan was to build one Columbia-class sub and two Virginia-class per year, but the plan did not take into account deliveries to Australia.

General Dynamics Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries Newport News shipyards are the only yards capable of building nuclear-powered submarines. Instead of two Virginia-class per year, the Navy reported they are delivering 1.2 boats...[1.2 Virginias per year]"

Comment
To maintain the USN's rolling average of 50 SSNs construction of 2 Virginias per year is needed to make good the retirement of an average 2 Los Angeles SSNs per year. However there are estimated the US may take 5 more years to get Virginia production up to 2 per year. So by 2028 the USN might be down to just 45 to 47 SSNs.

Why ONLY 1.2 Virginia SSNs being produced per year? Several reasons:

-  the minimum of 12 Columbia-class SSBNs commissioned from 2031 right through the 2030s-early 2040s have been assigned a higher priority than the Virginias. The Columbias are around 10% behind schedule and need to replace the outgoing Ohio SSBNs.

-  The Virginia construction industry has Block V challenges with inadequately planned for man-years needed to build the Virginia Payload Modules for the 10 x future Block V SSGN Virginias. This concerns design and construction of those Modules themselves. But it also concerns modified plans and adjustments for the 2,400 short tons heavier (than Blocks I to IV) Block Vs in terms buoyancy management, trim, nuclear reactor propulsion load and some changes to the combat system hardware and software. 

-  Perhaps with the effect of reducing Virginia SSN construction to 1.1 per year is an even more marked design and construction departure. This is a planned one-off "Mod VA SSW" (Modified Virginia, Subsea and Seabed Warfare) Virginia likely to be commissioned in the 2030s. This sub might not be used for conventional SSN combat duties. It will likely have a 30m, 2,500 ton, Special Mission Module, additional hover in-place thrusters and even more adjustments than Block Vs. It will augment the equally Special Mission USS Jimmy Carter. The need for the 2 Special Mission subs simultaneously might be in recognition of:
-  increased seabed warfare by Russia's Special Mission submarine fleet
-  China becoming more active in that field
-  such US subs being able to launch Orca XLUUVs and other bulky vehicles, and
-  for larger (up to 66 men) Special Forces units that used to be accommodated by the outgoing Ohio-class SSGNs. 

The USN will be dangerously stretched with only 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia SSNs under construction for several years. Three being sold to Australia, means three sidelined mainly for training duties promised to Australia. The USN might be down to a low of 42 active SSNs (rather than the present 50) in the 2030s. The 42 may not be supplemented by active combat ready Australian Virginias until about 2040. Even  then Australian Government leaders have stressed Australian Virginias' "sovereignty". This may mean they might not necessarily fight alongside the US.

The 2030s could see Presidents Putin and Xi probably still in power, both still pursuing aggressive defence policies with ever more capable SSNs and SSBNs (also, for Russia, advanced SSGNs). China's future Type 095 SSNs and Type 096 SSBNs might be discrete/silent enough to operate east of the First Island Chain, for the first time and perhaps, into the mid-Pacific. This will present an increased threat to the US, demanding more than 50, not less, USN SSNs.  

Virginias for Australia being a longshot is something Albanese and Marles currently refuse to admit.