Radio Free Asia (RFA), which
“operates under a [US] Congressional mandate”, reports, November 1, 2022:
“Taiwan’s domestic submarine
plans are no match for China’s analysts say”
“[Taiwan's] navy plans to
build as many as 8 [indigenous submarines] while [mainland China (PRC)] may add more than 20 in coming years.”
Taiwan’s navy says it is on
course to launch its first domestically built submarine by May 2024, amid
skepticism about the effectiveness of [Taiwan's] indigenous submarine program.
… Taiwan started building its
Indigenous Defensive Submarine fleet in November 2020 at a new submarine
factory in the southern port city of Kaohsiung.
Skepticism over indigenous
submarines
… Some analysts have however
raised questions about the effectiveness of the indigenous submarine program.
Liao Hongxiang, a former
lecturer at the Taiwan War College, told local media that the contracted
company, CSBS, has “no past performance” in building submarines.
“Since Taiwan has absolutely
no experience in the design and manufacture of submarine subsystems, the unit
price of each diesel-electric submarine is more than twice that of other
countries' [Pete Comment: eg. Japan's] similar submarines,” Liao said.
There is a large gap between
the submarine forces of Taiwan and China and, according to the analyst, even
with eight new submarines, the Taiwanese Navy still cannot compete with the
People’s Liberation Army Navy’s fleet.
China is believed to have
around 70 submarines, including a dozen that are nuclear-powered. The number of
Chinese nuclear submarines is likely to increase to 21 by 2030, according to
the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence [in 2022] .
Instead of acquiring new subs,
Liao suggested that the Navy could deploy surveillance systems to early detect
enemy submarines in Taiwan’s waters and use smart naval mines and long-range
anti-submarine rockets to neutralize them.
Grant Newsham, a retired U.S.
Marine colonel who spent a year studying Taiwan’s defense system, also
suggested sea mines, “especially the 'smart' kinds.”"
++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pete Comment
Other sources indicate the PRC itself has deployed a ring of seafloor surveillance systems around Taiwan. These are cued
to detect Taiwanese and US submarines and warships.
These PRC surveillance systems
are networked to alert PRC submarines and other PRC ASW platforms to quickly
destroy "enemy" submarines.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
SEE WHOLE US RFA ARTICLE HERE
2 comments:
It should not be a point of contention imho - manned subs except as part of a comprehensive CBG or in conjunction with ASuW, ASW assets is a no go proposition in the first island chain especially if there is a 'hot war'.
Taiwan can employ 'smart mines' and UCAVs/UUVs/USVs and there are things it can do in the sea akin to what Ukraine has done on land making the cost high for china in the process.
I remember Frederick Forsyth's quote on Iraq taking Kuwait - "Kuwait, after all, had been a fat pigeon ready for the plucking. But in six weeks, the pigeon had begun to peck and scratch." --> with careful planning and deployment of resources, the pain for PLAN can be made real and the cost close to prohibitive.
Instead of making facetious comments on SSK numbers etc, these 'analysts' could be more helpful by thinking along the lines of Colonel Newsham.
Hi GhalibKabir
1. Already Taiwan's 2 servicable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hai_Lung-class_submarine subs perform excellent "dry run" target practice for the many types of PRC ASW platforms.
2. Very true that Taiwan would be better served by an ultra-asymetric drone/missile strategy against the PRC Navy (and the rest of the PLA for that matter).
Of course the comeback from sub sellers and sub navies is that future subs will very much be Future platforms to launch UUVs and even UAVs.
The return augument, then enters the debate, that subs Already launch:
- torpedos, which can be seen as one-way weaponised UUVs,
- smart mines (with some mobility, by way of rising or sinking or some with limited lateral homing movement) and
- SLCMs/SLBMs can be seen one-way UAVs/UCAVs.
The debate goes on and on in the multi-$Trillion undersea platforms and weapons industry.
Regards Pete
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