October 20, 2021

Taiwan 3: New weapons & Japan coming to its aid?

Andrew, on October 14, 2021 made some insightful comments on Taiwan, its weapons, Japan and other topics: 

What has been said is in line with my own analysis of Taiwan's situation. The US may or may not come to Taiwan's aid directly, but it's very much against Japan's interests to let Taiwan fall and I can see Japan perhaps taking direct action. 

[Pete Comment: Hence Japan's 2021 Defense White Paper has significantly altered wording on Taiwan. (From CNAThe Paper states “stabilizing the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan’s security and the stability of the international community”. It stresses 

the situation must be closely watched with a 
sense of crisis"]

Will this force the US to follow Japan? Remains to be seen. 

It's such a pity the region's history stops Japan and South Korea being tight allies, because a novice looking at the geography would assume they'd be a natural fit. 
The next 5-10 years will be interesting. Taiwan will have far more modern defense hardware when it receives all its updated F-16s and 66 new F-16Vs, all the promised new M1 tanks and missiles.

All 24 missile corvettes will be completed. These are 12 Tuo Chiangs and 12 Anping-class OPV versions of the Tuo Chiangs. The Anpings are basically Tuo Chiang's without the missiles loaded but can be if needed. 

Taiwan will begin to receive its Indigenous Defense Submarines (IDS) in the 2020s.  
Similarly, Japan will possibly have increased its defense spending by tens of US$billions, completed its carrier conversions, and upgraded or replaced its old F-15s. 
China will have more amphibious assault ships, but it remains untested. Also, Chinese President Xi Jinping is 68 years old now. Given he essentially made himself Emperor, it's possible he'd like to see China's strategic freedom to have free access to the sea and hammer the final nail in the coffin in the CCP/KMT saga by taking Taiwan. That is before Xi becomes too frail to do so, and the aging workforce affects China’s economic ability to do so. 

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Taiwan is for a while the home of advanced 3nm chips until Intel and Samsung come online in ~2024. And you know, the chip is the foundation of modern economies.