I'm publishing news about subs and other issues at a slower tempo. Unlike most advanced countries Australian submarine changes are slow: first LOTE by 2030? 1 used Virginia by 2036 or later? But missiles and novel warheads always tempt. Shawn C and Gessler are welcome to post articles on SubMatts. Cheers Pete
October 12, 2021
Donor Report: Speeding vs Slowing Aus SSN Project
Dear Donors
I have just sent you October 2021's Special Report, carrying the title:
Special Report: Aus SSN - Speeding Up vs Slowing Down Project.
One wonders what they are up to with this announcement, as it comes just one week after they summoned the Chinese ambassador about CCG ships encroaching into Malaysian waters, and in the middle of FPDA exercises - where they could consult the UK and Australia directly, especially as the UK minister for Asia and RAF Chief of Staff are both in Singapore.
There won’t be an ASEAN consensus, and it will actually sour their own defence arrangements with the UK and Australia - torpedoing FPDA when it’s significance to Malaysia was reinforced by the PLAFF’s flight to West Malaysia is a strange move, and without an FPDA they can forget about Singapore providing them with military ‘cover’.
Is this the first step in to asking Indonesia to form a military alliance with Malaysia?
Those "recalcitrant" Malaysians https://archive.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/mahathir-agrees-he-was-recalcitrant seem to want things both ways.
What with https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-hopes-asean-consensus-australian-nuclear-sub-pact-2237771 stating:
"AUKUS is largely seen as a response by Western allies to avert a Chinese hegemony in Southeast Asia, particularly in the South China Sea, a conduit for a third of ship-borne trade over which Beijing claims historical sovereignty."
1. Geopolitical threat via China especially such a sulky ‘bearing grudges for decades’ type giant 2. Climate change 3. Economic pressures due to 1 and 2
Nuclear power might actually offer Australia a good complementary fuel to support renewable energy cleanly while serving the purpose of setting up a nuclear human capital base to sustain both civilian and military nuclear assets...else for a military only outlook, I am afraid the costs are likely going to be prohibitively high....
2 is the most important though 1 will loom larger thanks to China increasingly looking at an ‘outburst’ style situation
PS: interesting story, from 1765-1769 the Qing Qianlong Emperor launched 4 invasions of Burma.
The Burmese told the Chinese to bugger off when ‘tributes’ were expected under the then ‘tributary system may.
Long story short, the Chinese were whipped by a battle hardened Burmese army.
The Emperor refused to acknowledge defeat and kept military forces and refused to restart diplomacy till 1790... 20 years of petty grudge bearing.... I am afraid the thought remains the same and Ladakh will take decades to settle into normalcy.
So leasing a sub would speed up process and help get experience.
1. What are chances for UK offering Astutes on a lease? 2. If Astutes are not available on good terms, how about recent Los Angeles class 3. What is the status of mixed crews in case of conflict?
In general, you (Pete) are negative on Virginia availability. Can UK produce Astutes soon enough?
or china might simply accelerate the events of 1920-1939 into a extremely compressed timeframe and trigger a crisis unwittingly (most likely acting too clever by half one too many times) by misjudging the 'calibrated boiling or escalation' as they call it...
bound to happen sooner or later....the way the military build up has ramped up is already making Nazi germany and hitler look like amateur schoolboys. Such huge military buildup has almost 100% of the time been never for 'show'... be it the Russians or The americans....massive buildups have almost always led to a serious conflict such as Vietnam, Afghanistanx2 Iraqx2 etc...excluding multiple smaller conflicts..that is 5 major wars in the past 75 years alone (all this in the midst of arguably the most peaceful humanity has been in the past 1000 years)
Unfortunately, it simply seems to me that humans are naturally conflict prone to a certain extent and china's rise is very likely to create a powderkeg situation with jinping (recently showing all the diplomatic subtlety of a rhino with inflamed piles) playing with the lit candle in the most hazardous fashion possible. I hope it blows over with minimal conflict though history tells a very different tale.
7 comments:
In other news
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-hopes-asean-consensus-australian-nuclear-sub-pact-2237771
One wonders what they are up to with this announcement, as it comes just one week after they summoned the Chinese ambassador about CCG ships encroaching into Malaysian waters, and in the middle of FPDA exercises - where they could consult the UK and Australia directly, especially as the UK minister for Asia and RAF Chief of Staff are both in Singapore.
There won’t be an ASEAN consensus, and it will actually sour their own defence arrangements with the UK and Australia - torpedoing FPDA when it’s significance to Malaysia was reinforced by the PLAFF’s flight to West Malaysia is a strange move, and without an FPDA they can forget about Singapore providing them with military ‘cover’.
Is this the first step in to asking Indonesia to form a military alliance with Malaysia?
Hi Shawn C
Those "recalcitrant" Malaysians https://archive.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/mahathir-agrees-he-was-recalcitrant seem to want things both ways.
What with https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-hopes-asean-consensus-australian-nuclear-sub-pact-2237771 stating:
"AUKUS is largely seen as a response by Western allies to avert a Chinese hegemony in Southeast Asia, particularly in the South China Sea, a conduit for a third of ship-borne trade over which Beijing claims historical sovereignty."
Regards
Pete
Ghalib has kindly commented:
All very good points...well written...
I think a series of factors are converging in
1. Geopolitical threat via China especially such a sulky ‘bearing grudges for decades’ type giant
2. Climate change
3. Economic pressures due to 1 and 2
Nuclear power might actually offer Australia a good complementary fuel to support renewable energy cleanly while serving the purpose of setting up a nuclear human capital base to sustain both civilian and military nuclear assets...else for a military only outlook, I am afraid the costs are likely going to be prohibitively high....
2 is the most important though 1 will loom larger thanks to China increasingly looking at an ‘outburst’ style situation
PS: interesting story, from 1765-1769 the Qing Qianlong Emperor launched 4 invasions of Burma.
The Burmese told the Chinese to bugger off when ‘tributes’ were expected under the then ‘tributary system may.
Long story short, the Chinese were whipped by a battle hardened Burmese army.
The Emperor refused to acknowledge defeat and kept military forces and refused to restart diplomacy till 1790... 20 years of petty grudge bearing.... I am afraid the thought remains the same and Ladakh will take decades to settle into normalcy.
So leasing a sub would speed up process and help get experience.
1. What are chances for UK offering Astutes on a lease?
2. If Astutes are not available on good terms, how about recent Los Angeles class
3. What is the status of mixed crews in case of conflict?
In general, you (Pete) are negative on Virginia availability. Can UK produce Astutes soon enough?
Dear Anon [your Oct 14, 2021, 10:52:00 AM]
No-one knows the answers to your questions - at this stage.
So all I can do is venture this poem.
In answer to your questions 1 to 3
Pray wait for the 18 month Review say Me
Failing that wait for official words by 2033
or later.
Yo fiend Pete
or china might simply accelerate the events of 1920-1939 into a extremely compressed timeframe and trigger a crisis unwittingly (most likely acting too clever by half one too many times) by misjudging the 'calibrated boiling or escalation' as they call it...
bound to happen sooner or later....the way the military build up has ramped up is already making Nazi germany and hitler look like amateur schoolboys. Such huge military buildup has almost 100% of the time been never for 'show'... be it the Russians or The americans....massive buildups have almost always led to a serious conflict such as Vietnam, Afghanistanx2 Iraqx2 etc...excluding multiple smaller conflicts..that is 5 major wars in the past 75 years alone (all this in the midst of arguably the most peaceful humanity has been in the past 1000 years)
Unfortunately, it simply seems to me that humans are naturally conflict prone to a certain extent and china's rise is very likely to create a powderkeg situation with jinping (recently showing all the diplomatic subtlety of a rhino with inflamed piles) playing with the lit candle in the most hazardous fashion possible. I hope it blows over with minimal conflict though history tells a very different tale.
Hi Ghalib
See my reply at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/10/taiwan-2-patriotic-conflict-for-chinas.html
Regards
Pete
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