Less cost & risk if Australia Chose Japanese Designed Submarine with LIBs

The French Naval Group, Australian Future Submarine Program, may collapse, due to higher French priorities. There is also France's batch building system of delaying a whole submarine class for years. This is in contrast to Japan's more efficient ("continuous") build system of launching a submarine each year.

The following is an indication of what benefits could flow if Australia made the safest choice for Australia’s new submarine program. That is choosing a Japanese designed submarine with some features of the 29SS research program (see SORYU TABLE below). Japanese submarines, benefitting from the 29SS research program, will be actually commissioned into the Japanese Navy around 2022-23.

Japan continuously accepts the risk of new improvements to its all diesel-electric submarine fleet. Japan would test diesel-electric technologies, including its (on Japanese Navy subs) LIBs before designing submarines for Australia. Something France, with its all nuclear propelled submarine fleet, cannot do.  

Anonymous states that the figures discussed below are based on the precise cost calculation formulae used by the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD). Hence Anonymous believes this is the most reliable cost calculation by a third party. On February 24, 2020 Anonymous commented:

The AUS 29SS would have four diesels, [Pete Comment also Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs)] and a range of 12,000nm. Meanwhile 29SS for the Japanese Navy submarine (JN 29SS) has just 2  Kawasaki diesels.

[Pete Comment: the French and German competition are far less advanced in submarine LIBs than Japan. Unlike Japan they have no submarines reliant on LIBs. So choosing LIBs in a French or German designed submarine would result in further delays, increased costs (with Australia carrying French and German LIB ACTUALLY ON SUBMARINE development costs) hence increased risks for Australia's future submarine program.

The degree of the Japanese lead in LIBs for submarine was demonstrated on March 5, 2020 when the world's first operational submarine with LIBs, Japanese Submarine JS Oryu (SS-511, 27SS), was commissioned and see Janes] 

AUS 29SS would utilise a similar structure of single and double hulls as the Soryu submarine housing motor, diesel, torpedo and other sections. Extra diesel fuel in enlarged tanks between the inner and outer hulls would meet the longer range/endurance needs of AUS 29SS.

Anonymous indicates the increase in costs of AUS 29SS compared to JN 29SS’s may mainly be attributed to:

(a) US$0.02 Billion (B) for a hull plug housing larger fuel tanks for the extra 2 diesels in a lengthened AUS 29SS (94m) compared to JN 29SS’ 84m length. [Pete Comment: AUS 29SS would retain the Soryu's warload of 20 to 30 heavyweight torpedoes/missiles/UUV shots, or 40 to 60 mines.]

(b) US$0.027B for the two extra diesels themselves

(c) US$0.13B the cost of installing a US combat system instead of a different (though similar) Japanese combat system [coordinated with Lockheed Martin, Australia's combat system integrator] and

(d) US$0.11B profit for MHI.  

So the total cost increase of AUS 29SS compared to JN 29SS would be (a)+(b)+(c)+(d)= 0.02+0.027+0.13+0.11=US$0.29B.

Cost of JN 29SS is US$0.67B.

So the cost of AUS 29SS is US$0.96B (=0.67B+0.29B) meaning Japan can export AUS 29SS  (rounded up) for US$1B.

So for Australia’s 8 future submarines (assuming the Australian Government will only decide on 8 rather than 12 submarines):

- 2 x export AUS 29SS’s [assembled in Australia] (at US$1B/submarine)

and

- 6 x AUS post-29SS submarines (assuming US$1.3B/submarine)

then purchasing and maintenance costs are US$10B + US$10B = total cost of US$20B.

This represents a large cost saving for Australia, freeing up money for other defence or non-defence items.

SORYU TABLE. as at March 5, 2020 

SS No. Diesel Type Motor	Build No Name	Pennant No.	MoF approved amount ¥ Billions FY	LABs, LIBs, AIP	Laid Down	Laun -ched	Commi ssioned	Built By
5SS Oyashio 2 Toshiba motors	8105 Oyashio (mythical currents)	SS-590/ TS3608	¥52.2B FY1993	LABs only	Jan 1994	Oct 1996	Mar 1998	KHI
6SS-15SS Oyashios  10 subs 2 Toshiba motors SMC-7?	8106 -8115 various	SS-591-600	¥52.2B per sub FY1994-FY2003	LABs only	15SS Feb 2004	15SS Nov 2006	15SS Mar 2008	MHI & KHI
16SS Soryu/ Dragon class  Mk I	8116 Sōryū (mythical dragons)	SS-501	¥60B FY2004 all Soryus with Kawasaki  12V25/25SB diesels, see and SMC-8 motor	LABs + AIP	Mar 2005	Dec 2007	Mar 2009	MHI
17SS	8117 Unryū	SS-502	¥58.7B FY2005	LABs + AIP	Mar 2006	Oct 2008	Mar 2010	KHI
18SS	8118 Hakuryū	SS-503	¥56.2 FY2006	LABs + AIP	Feb 2007	Oct 2009	Mar 2011	MHI
19SS	8119 Kenryū	SS-504	¥53B FY2007	LABs + AIP	Mar 2008	Nov 2010	Mar 2012	KHI
20SS	8120 Zuiryū	SS-505	¥51B FY2008	LABs + AIP	Mar 2009	Oct 2011	Mar 2013	MHI
21SS Concept			No 21SS built But was a concept research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched is 27SS		research in  2010	research	research
22SS	8121 Kokuryū	SS-506	¥52.8B FY2010	LABs + AIP	Jan 2011	Oct 2013	Mar 2015	KHI
23SS	8122 Jinryu	SS-507	¥54.6B FY2011	LABs + AIP	Feb 2012	Oct 2014	7 Mar 2016	MHI
24SS	8123 Sekiryū	SS-508	¥54.7B FY2012	LABs + AIP	15 Mar 2013	2 Nov 2015	13 Mar 2017	KHI
25SS	8124 Seiryū	SS-509	¥53.1B FY2013	LABs + AIP	22 Oct 2013	12 Oct   2016	12 Mar 2018	MHI
26SS	8125 Shoryū	SS-510	¥51.7B FY2014 last SMC-8 motor	LABs + AIP	2014	6 Nov 2017	18 Mar 2019	KHI
27SS SoryuMk II  due to 1st with LIBs	8126 Oryū 11th Soryu	SS-511	¥64.4B FY2015 12V25/25SB dieselSMC-8B motor Sébastien Roblin paper US$536mil?	LIBs only (NCA type)	2015	4 Oct 2018	5 Mar 2020 & see Janes	MHI
28SS Soryu Mk II	8127 Toryu 12th & final Soryu	SS-512	¥63.6B FY2016 "2,900t" surfaced	LIBs only	Jan 2017	6 Nov  2019	Mar 2021?	KHI
(JN) 29SS 29SS may be the 1st of a New class			¥76B FY2017 New features research may include: a further blended fin for noise reduction-better water flow, new propulsor, new diesels, new snorkel system. G-RX6 torpedoes replacing the Type 89s?	LIBs only	2017 pro-gram began			MHI assisted by KHI & JMoD
30SS New Class? 12V25/31S	8028?	SS-513	¥71.5B FY2018 using some 29SS features	LIBs only	2018?	2020?	2022?	MHI?
31SS New Class ?	8029?	SS-514	¥B?FY2019  using some 29SS features	LIBs only	2019?	2021?	2023?	KHI?
32SS New Class ?	8030?	SS-515	¥B?Y2020 using some 29SS features. AUS 29SS would cost estimated US$1 Billion	LIBs only	2020?	2022?	2024?	MHI?
33SS New Class ?	8031?	SS-516	¥B? FY2021	LIBs only	2021?	2023?	2025?	KHI?
34SS New Class ?	8032?	SS-517	¥B? FY2022	LIBs only	2022?	2024?	2026?	MHI?
35SS New Class ?	8033?	SS-518	¥B? FY2023	LIBs only	2023?	2025?	2027?	KHI?
36SS New Class ?	8034?	SS-519	¥B? FY2024	LIBs only	2024?	2026?	2028?	MHI?
37SS New Class ?	8035?	SS-520	¥B? FY2025	LIBs only	2025?	2027?	2029?	KHI?
38SS New Class ?	8036?	SS-521	¥B? FY2026	LIBs only	2026?	2028?	2030?	MHI?

Key to Table: Table information exclusively provided to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = Lithium-ion Batteries. ¥***B = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 

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Anonymous and Pete