March 4, 2020

Excellent article in THE AUSTRALIAN "Australia 'Captured’ By French Submarine Contract..."

THE AUSTRALIAN has maintained its lead as the mainstream media’s most authoritative source on Australian future submarine issues. Its latest article (below) on Australia cutting off its future submarine options too early, is in line with my own article “French Future SSN & SSBN Priorities Before Attack class” of February 17, 2020 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/02/australia-cannot-drop-french-contract.html .

THE AUSTRALIAN'S ARTICLE

"Australia ‘Captured’ By French Submarine Contract, Shipbuilding Board Member Says

The Morrison government’s Naval Shipbuilding Advisory Board says the decision to hand Naval Group the $80bn Future Submarine project without a plan B has effectively left the nation “captured” by the French defence giant.

In a stunning testimony to Senate estimates, board member Ron Finlay said the government had given up leverage in its in the drawn-out negotiations with Naval Group by “down-selecting” to the French option in 2016.

He said as negotiations with the company became bogged down in the second quarter of 2018, the board advised the government to consider dumping the French company, and look at engaging German, Japanese or Swedish firms to build the next generation submarines.

But Defence argued none of those options would deliver the “regionally superior” submarine that Australia required, Mr Finlay said.

Under questioning by Labor Senator Penny Wong, Mr Finlay said the government’s naming of DCNS which later became Naval Group – as the successful bidder without any alternatives had compromised the government’s negotiating position.

“In my experience, many decades of negotiating major contracts, if you do not have an alternative of either going to bidder ‘b’ or cancelling the project, yes you are captured in a negotiation with few options,” he said.

“And, that does increase the number of issues that can become a block to concluding the negotiations.”

Mr Finlay told the Senate’s Foreign Affairs and Defence committee that, as negotiations with Naval Group threatened to break down in 2018, the board advised the government to look at alternative vendors, or consider a full rebuild of all six Collins-class subs “to buy time” to look for an alternative bidder.

He said the board was concerned the French company would be unable to deliver promised sovereign submarine-building capability, upskill the Australian workforce, or maximise Australian content in the boats.

Mr Finlay said the United States’ government requirement that the design of the Lockheed Martin provided combat system for the submarines not be shared with Naval Group was also a "higher-order risk".




FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND DEFENCE CORRESPONDENT
Ben Packham has spent almost 20 years in journalism, working at Melbourne's Herald Sun before joining The Australian as a political reporter in 2011. He rejoined the bureau in 2018 after almost four years in Papua New Guinea, and is now foreign affairs and defence correspondent.

11 comments:

Arpit Kanodia said...

Hi Pete

What does "regionally superior" actually means?

Pete said...

Hi Arpit Kanodia (still fixing my typos)

"Regionally superior", like "Australian content in the future submarine build", is a political slogan pitched to Australia's ("man in the street"/taxpayer/job seeker) domestic audience

rather than to the technical and professional, naval/submarine builder audience.

The political slogan "regionally superior" implicitly means ONLY superior to diesel-electric subs in Australia's Indian Ocean/Pacif Ocean region (eg. superior to Kilos, Yuans, 209s, 214s, 218s and Scorpenes).

Naturally Australia's future subs will NOT be "regionally superior" to Japan's similar sized diesel-electric (with LIBs) Soryus.

The presence of always superior SSNs in Australia's region is avoided. The Australian taxpayer is left ignorant of the fact that Australia will pay more (or similar) for its Attack class diesel-electric (SSKs) as China, India and Russia will pay (are paying) for their superior SSNs.

Cheers

Pete

ghalibkabir said...

While DCNS will likely deliver good subs at the end of the day, it is true that Aus. tax payers are hooked (so to speak). However, this is a common situation in a 'single vendor' situation. India gets price gouged on aircraft carriers and SSBN/SSN support by Russia..all the time.

What should be more concerning is that Cherbourg will focus on the much delayed/bungled Barracuda SSNs (they need to, Rubis class is over 40 years old) and then the successor to Troimphant SSBNs...the SNLE 3G will come due... Australia might feature low down the priority chain...

http://www.hisutton.com/SNLE-3G.html

A Type-216 or even a 214 deal would have been faster and TKMS PEMFC AIP is a neat solution between a noisy MESMA and an ultra costly LIB sub. Frankly Australia could have managed a Japan type 'build an SSK annually' cycle in the 90s. Sadly, neither Howard nor his successors or even a good labour PM like Rudd had the vision to do so...

With 6-7 subs at sea (at max and with luck), the RAN is getting a 'pigs breakfast' of a SSK solution....plus what will they do for finding competent sub commanders? they do not grow on trees either...If the RAN wants credible under sea capability, a 20 SSK/SSN mixed force is needed with 3 SSNs at sea and 2-3 at the docks and 6-7 SSKs at sea and 7-8 at the docks...

all this will cost a frightful amount of cash annually too... else the PLAN will continue to prowl the southern waters with impunity and even brazenness...

steve said...

It's hard to get your head around just how far Australia's 'region' stretches!

http://www.taiwandocuments.org/mapeasiaoceania.jpg

We here in the Old Country should be doing more to help you and the Kiwi's out.

Pete said...

Hi ghalibkabir

Yes Naval Group launching a batch of 4 Aus subs from 2030 may be worth it if it gives Aus an entry to 4 Barracuda SSNs from 2040.

I can't disagree with "What should be more concerning is that Cherbourg will focus on the much delayed/bungled Barracuda SSNs (they need to, Rubis class is over 40 years old) and then the successor to Troimphant SSBNs...the SNLE 3G will come due... Australia might feature low down the priority chain..."

otherwise I'd be contradicting what I wrote https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/02/australia-cannot-drop-french-contract.html

What with Germany's full submarine order book, worrying inability to field more than one 212A for a year (2018-2019) and corporate instability, developing a Type-216, with Australian money, may have been too risky. Yes 6 to 8 214/218s may have been better.

I don't think Japan would have made a LIBs Soryu "ultra costly" if we were the kickoff customer. https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/03/less-cost-risk-if-australia-chose.html

The Australian Labor Party neither launched nor contracted any sub or naval surface ship for years under Rudd or Gillard. It couldn't handle or face down the shipbuilding unions.

Yes if we were the size of the UK or French Navy we could pay for and man "20 SSK/SSN" https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/02/australian-future-submarines-how-many.html

Being reliant on the USN (luckily Trump is anti-China) is about our only anti Chinese SSN strategy. Thank goodness (his buddy) Putin's SSNs don't ply our waters.

Cheers

Pete

Pete said...

Hi steve

Australia's 'region' now seems to stretch from Africa east across the Indian Ocean, east across the Pacific to Tahiti and Hawaii at least. About half the world seas/ocean space. Definitly a SSN solution. Our slow SSKs cannot cover it fast enough and still lack range, probably making them dependent on refueling stops: Exmouth? Darwin? Singapore? Diego Garcia? Guam? Hawaii?

So your map http://www.taiwandocuments.org/mapeasiaoceania.jpg is almost right but our surface navy operates further west - all the way to the African coast/Arabian Gulf https://www.defence.gov.au/Operations/OpManitou/

By buying the UK's Type 26 Frigate (to be our Hunter class) and buying French subs we are hopefully buying some UK/French nuclear leverage with our defence checkbooks.

NZ has forces in the Middle East, 2 small frigates for joint taskforces and sigint bases (NZ North and South Islands) which support the Five Eyes alliance.

Regards

Pete

Anonymous said...

Hi Pete,

Looks like the good news was Senator Wong was doing her job properly in her grilling. Bad news is...well, the grilling revealed a bunch of bad news.

I don't know what the penalty fee is if Australia withdraws, but, assuming its a few billion, it might be worth taking a bloody nose and seeing what Japan can do for us. It's hardly the first time Australia has screwed up in defence and if Japan can deliver the subs a decade before France, it should be done.

It's such a pity the subs have been such a mess. THe OPV and Frigate selection process went so well.

Here's hoping Australia has some new subs by 2045-2050. or else we'll be no different than Taiwan, with their 1980's subs.

Have a good day mate,

Adrian

Pete said...

Thanks Adrian [at March 6, 2020 at 5:09 PM]

Yes Australian Senator Penny Wong asks good questions on many issues including on defence-foreign affairs, encapsulated by the growing Attack-class fiasco.

The penalty fee for Australia's cancelling the Attack-class project with Naval Group probably stands at around A$500 million.

A lower compensation/penalty amount may also go to Lockheed Martin (LMs) (as the (ultra-sensitive) combat systems integrator for the Attack class). The combat system (aka "Tactical Control System") being sensors, weapons and the computers that coordinate them. The system is also used by all US submarines https://gdmissionsystems.com/shipboard-integration-and-combat-systems/tactical-control-systems .

The US (including LM) would probably be happier if Australia's Plan B. was choosing Japan (which already uses US Harpoon missiles and Type 89 torpedoes (thought similar (maybe sharing technology of) the US Mark 48 torpedoes) rather than Germany.

Regards

Pete

Lee McCurtayne said...

We can throw $400,000,000 at a group that holds parties for the Great Barrier Reef with no guarantees or real results. So $500 million really isn’t a big deal frankly. So really why not involve the Japanese to deliver 6 subs with minimal changes. We know what we are getting ( huge plus) a lot cheaper, a huge plus for the 5 Eyes. China would sit up and take notice, we would have competitive subs at a reasonable price, France could build just one and a parallel build of 6 x A26ERs with the full wish list built here by SAAB and ASC. It’s a lot smarter to have a range of Subs and still have the Collins brought up to Collins 1.5. And the training needed from the advanced work on the Collins 1.5 would bear fruit for the workforce. “Yes I know tell him he’s dreaming.”

Lee McCurtayne said...

The 5 Eyes Group is at the stage where “WE” need to commit to gain the momentum the group so desperately seeks. Building subs between Japan and Australia demonstrates that there is serious wills to align like security focussed allies. This in itself will make China take notice as well as the rest of the Asia-Pacific. Demonstrations like this will draw India and America closer to the fold and consolidate a tighter involvement and direction.

Pete said...

Hi Lee

While Japan could have delivered, started to build subs in Australia more quickly, with a more reasonable budget than France, there were/are 2 major possible downsides:

- Stoked by then Prime Miniser Abbott, Japan's military, industrial, foreign policy complex (and the US complex) seemed to have an expectation that such a submarine deal meant Australia would be alliance obligated to help in Japan's much more immediate and serious confrontation with China. Japanese leaders/admirals had visions of Australian submarines and surface units working in Japanese flotillas in such far flung theatres as the East China Sea, against Chinese forces (in peace and war). See my 2015 article "Australia: the future junior ally of Japan" https://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=17065

- Japan offers no pathway to "Regionally Superior" submarine. That means an SSN design and France is the most viable supplier. In comparison, US and UK subs would be too large/expensive, and their 90+% bomb grade HEU reactors would be a NPT proliferation breach. Despite all Australian political and RAN denials an Australian SSN force is not a possibility. Not a possibility YET! 10 to 15 years can be a long time in politics and changed Australian strategic priorities/fears (of China, Russia and maybe of India) justifying an Australian SSN.

Regards

Pete