Oddly pixelated image of India's INS Arihant(?) with image of Indian flag at periscope cluster. ("Photo by Chanakyathegreat, Wikimedia Commons." via eurasiareview)
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Pakistan's Sher Bano at eurasiareview news & analysis, February 25, 2020 presents some accurate and inaccurate comments:
"Present Limitations To India’s Nuclear Triad – OpEd"
Inaccurate "The INS Arihant is equipped with K-4 missiles with a range of 3500 km" and "Pakistan however has already built the Baber-3 or Hatf V-II (submarine launched cruise missile) with MIRV capability".
Accurate? "...the [K-4] missile range is still sub-optimal because it would require the submarine to operate on the north eastern fringes of the Bay of Bengal. Hence, requiring these submarines to travel round the Burmese and Bangladeshi littoral waters in order to target China’s vital economic and political hubs."
and "...Arihant was about to sink because its propulsion compartment was flooded because a hatch was left open by mistake. According to The Economic Times there exists an upsetting partition between the military authority and nation’s political leadership. Such an error, actual or speculative, is evidence enough that there are certain serious shortcomings within the Indian Nuclear Command Authority ..."
Pete
10 comments:
Hi Pete,
I think lot of things are extrapolated and exaggerated. Firstly, I don't know that hatch incident happened or not, one can check google images of Vizag to check when INS Arihant going for patrol, what was the duration etc etc.
And with google images, I have not found any irregularity, even the Arihant was not taken to dry dock.
About shortcomings of NCA, I think it's a little bit extrapolated. There is difference of opinion about deterrence, operationalization of deterrence etc etc. For armed forces it's a normal weapon, for leadership it's a political weapon.
But its quite clear the launch authority is with NCA that is prime minister. Furthur, there is proper continuity of program, in case PM is decapitated
If you are interested here Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar,ex C-in-C of SFC explaining such details
https://youtu.be/OZpIrZvP0Co
1. First off, there are much better pictures of Arihant available in the public domain ;)
2. Eurasia review and one more site called Modern Diplomacy, where most of these articles get published as well, is a haven for grammatically challenged and factually wrong pakistanis to mope and moan about (of course regarding India). I think the pakistanis are trying to write spoof like the 'Onion' and have miserably failed at the task till date.
Their agenda (ever since 'uncle' AQ Khan got caught red handed selling nuclear lollies) is very simple. Every time they get a chance, try and show India's nuclear program in bad light and say how India is a belligerent neighbour with hegemonic designs (LoL).
Their records suck (again LoL). Despite all this propaganda, India got the NSG waiver, got memberships in MTCR, WA and AG while they are left battling their inclusion in the FATF blacklist along side Iran and North Korea (but for China and Turkey, they would be blacklisted already). It is not even worth bothering with these half baked poppycock.
No wonder, as usual, they are wrong about the K series missiles. They forget that K-4 Mk.1 plays an analogous role to what the JL-1A did for China (was not deployed either). it is a necessary but insufficient step towards a credible sea based delivery system.
PS: If everyone gave up after failures, China would not have the 94 type SBN and 93 type SSN (remember, 92 SSBN and 91 SSN were noisy as hell and the 92 SSBN Xia was never deployed). China took 45 plus year to perfect the sea leg of the triad (1974-today)... only now is the JL-2 regularly deployed...Contrast -> The K series is less than 10 years old...
Addendum:
Here you go, the picture of Arihant from H I Sutton
http://www.hisutton.com/Vanquisher%20of%20Enemies%20-%20INS%20Arihant.html
PS: This Sher bano lady writing in the Eurasia times clearly proves she has absolutely no clue about the Indian decision making chain. The NCA has delineated a number of things quite clearly and unless this lady was present at the table while discussion went on, her claims are exactly that, claims and pretty silly ones at that. She should spend time writing about her own country's rogue army's shenanigans such as supporting AQ Khan (C-130s given to fly to Pyongyang and back etc.) and emasculating/neutering the government of pakistan on nuclear matters...
Hi Arpit Kanodia
A large intelligence agency (using humint and sigint) would have a comprehensive view about:
- any Arihant hatch incident, and
- shortcomings of India's NCA process.
But, for some reason, Russia's GRU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GRU_(G.U.) with all its agents hidden away in India's military-industrial complex, hasn't told me a thing.
Cheers
Pete
Hi ghalibkabir
Oh poor Pakistan. But it must be remembered India was the first "hyphenated" party to stage a nuclear test (in 1974) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smiling_Buddha
Pakistan had no nuclear device to test till years later. And Pakistan needed a nuclear asymmetric capability against India's superior conventional military and political capabilities (demonstrated in the 1971 war) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1971#Aftermath
Yes the A Q Khan racket of "nuke designs and parts for sale" placed Pak in or near Axis of Evil status. Also Pak's Islamist and chaotic nature did not impress the US or other (non-China) members of the nuclear club. This was in contrast to India becoming a defacto club member because of India's non-Islamist stability, diplomacy - not to mention deals to buy power reactors from club members.
India may make quicker SLBM and nuclear sub progress to China's stage in 2020 but will China forever remain ahead of India in SLBMs and nuclear subs?
Re Sher Bano? I'm not a male chauvanist when I say their are few female academics who are famous followers of realist strategic viewpoints. Exceptions included:
- Barbara Tuchman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_W._Tuchman#Historian and
- Australia's own Coral Bell http://bellschool.anu.edu.au/about-us/dr-coral-bell-ao
Not too many female realist strategic Prime Ministers either, Meir, Thatcher, Indira Gandhi?
Regards
Pete
I think facts do not discriminate based on gender. I deeply respect the staid scholarship of a Dr Christine Fair (in fact this lady is awesome in terms of brick by brick evidence construction) or the sheer brilliance of Dr Mrs Tessy Thomas Kumar, the lady behind India's first ICBM, the Agni V.
on the other hand, ladies like Sher Bano and there is an entire cohort of ladies and men having dubious M.Phil degrees from an equally dubious sounding Strategic Vision Institute in pakistan. These folks take pride in exhibiting ignorance and are a disgrace to critical thinking and evidence based approach. the least you would expect of a nation that has brazenly run the nuclear version of 'Coles supermarket' would be the absence of chutzpah...
On the other hand, Mrs. Indira Gandhi or the real Mrs G was a shrewd politician and stateswoman with fantastic strategic vision. She took India nuclear as she was suspicious that pakistan's zulfikar ali bhutto was already making plans (she was right... he made plans starting June 1972 barely six months after being dismembered)..only she came to a sticky end with her 'horses for courses' approach to communal appeasement (1977 plan to approach radical sikhs in the Punjab culminated in Op. Bluestar in june 1984 and her killing in October 1984) (her son and daughter in law carried that approach through to 2019 ending with the annihilation of the congress)
Golda Meir was fabulous in 1973 though she lost her job as Israel came close to peril, and Mrs. Thatcher was good til 1986 when she decided to become too clever by half and bungled to resignation by 1990. all these ladies were and are gritty leaders... eons ahead of their grammatically challenged twerps
Hi GhalibKabir [your March 1, 2020 at 8:25 PM comment]
True "facts do not discriminate based on gender". But ofter defense academics or senior newspaper/magazine columnists owe their expertise to being defence officials or military/naval officers - with senior female officials/officers being a rarity until the last decade or so.
Thanks for the mention of Dr Christine Fair https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Christine_Fair and Dr Tessy Thomas Kumar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tessy_Thomas both of whom I was unaware of.
Yes Indira Gandhi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indira_Gandhi had long experience at the top and near it - making India formidable. But it seems her descendents maintained the Gandhi brand too long, perhaps without the substance.
Australia's only female PM so far, Julia Gillard, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Gillard was/is unfortunately not in the Meir/Thatcher/Indira league.
Regards
Pete
Julia Gillard was way better than the current bunch of flamin' galahs squatting in the ACT and certainly fair dinkum vs Scotty. The IG/MT/GM universe is a truly rarefied space.
I have the utmost reverence for Dr. Fair especially after her seminal work on the Pakistani Army (Fighting till the end is the book's name) and on the notorious Mumbai 2008 attacks culprit, Lashkar e Taiba (book aptly titled 'in their own words')
This dame can read punjabi, urdu and hindi besides speaking them very well. Her research was built bottom up. She spent weeks collecting pamphlets published by the LeT's parent organization, the JuD and also spoke to many of the original members of the organization. She is also well known for her decades long 'on ground' research in pakistan including being on speaking terms with many generals (till recently).
End result: Her books are detailed, logical and authentic... no one can fight her on facts.
PS: oddly enough, the pakis got mighty angry with her because she used the internally published army journals and their other discussion papers to lay thread bare the pakistani army's creation of the jihadist ecosystem and its endless use of lies and propaganda to perpetually needle India and ensure the border is always 'hot'. a truly fabulous lady.
Hi ghalibkabir
Yes Dr Christine Fair's post at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Washington DC, puts her near the center of US analysis and policy making. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Christine_Fair
Academics, bloggers, etc, prepared to do the groundwork and write boldly are rare - as they are meant to humbly stand upon the shoulders of giants, ie. their academic "betters". in their extensive footnotes and 40 page bibliographies.
One of my lecturers at ANU, Professor Amin Saikal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amin_Saikal shrewdly published a book "The Rise and Fall of the Shah" first print 1978 - a year before the Shah of Iran actually fell. The book broke the rules of not being pro-American - the American line being "isn't the Shah just like us, in a suit, And he has good manners. He's sooo popular with his people.".
Large organizations who should have known better (in DC) only had one copy of Amin's book between them - a book that quickly became an academic etc, bestseller.
Cheers
Pete
The best part about her is that she pulls no punches and even if she has a particular slant on stuff, she ensures it is solidly backed up by facts.
Being 'Bold' (as Sir Appleby points out in Yes Minister, 'Courageous' decisions can lose you the next election) can derail a career. It is the '6 monkeys, a ladder with a bunch of bananas and a bucket of water' experiment in a human environment... soak the other 5 monkeys with water every time one tries to get the bananas.. even if you replace a monkey in each round, after a few rounds, any monkey trying to reach the bananas will be beaten by the others and over time even a new monkey will 'learn' not to venture near (without knowing why).
Christine is brave and (equally importantly) lucky to have an enabling environment.
PS: I highly recommend following the blog,
https://navy-matters.blogspot.com/
very solid discussions in the comments..
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