As the Korean War remains a ceasefire, such as status of United States Forces Korea (USFK) or US-SK exercise is more suitable than RIMPAC in discussion on US and SK alliance.
On October 20, 2018, the US
announced suspension of Vigilant
Ace that was to occur December 2018 (a large-scale exercise designed
to enhance the interoperability of the US and SK Air Forces through combined
and joint combat training) [1, 2].
On November 26 2018, US
Ambassador to SK, Harry Harris, threatened that if SK disturbed the
denuclearization of NK process, the US would withdraw the alliance with
SK [3].
On July 30, 2019, the US
State of Secretary, Michael Pompeo said, in exchange for denuclearization of
NK, the US would provide a new set of security arrangements amounting to a
withdrawal from the alliance with SK) [4].
On June 2nd-3rd 2019,
the relocation of the US-SK Combined Forces Command (CFC) Headquarters from
Seoul, transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) of Korean forces from US
to Seoul and denial of restore of suspended U.S.-South Korea military drills
were announced. It suggested future withdrawal of possible US-SK alliance [5,
6].
[1] https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/us-announces-suspension-of-vigilant-ace-2018-exercise-with-south-korea/,
by Ankit Panda, THE DIPLOMAT paysite, October 20, 2018. The US Announces
Suspension of Vigilant Ace 2018 Exercise With South Korea.
[2] https://business.nikkei.com/atcl/report/15/226331/120600206/?P=4 ,
T Suzuoki, Dec/07/2018, Nikkei Business. According to Japanese experts, US
personnel said “We do not fight together with SK military anymore. Then, joint
exercise is meaningless.”
[3] , Nov 28, 2018. On
November 26, the testimony of the grand prize of the 2018 Korean Unification
Contribution Award was revealed. (snip) It (=Ambassador’s speech) is
interpreted as the point that there should be no lifting of sanctions and
inter-Korean dialogue without denuclearization. Ambassador Harris said, “I will
tell you one last time.” “Our (ROK) alliance is firmly maintained, We shouldn't
take this for granted. ”(snip)
[4] https://www.state.gov/secretary-of-state-michael-r-pompeo-with-buck-sexton-of-iheartmedia/ Michael R. Pompeo,
Secretary Of State, Sheraton Maria Isabel Hotel, Mexico City, Mexico, July 22,
2019. MICHAEL R. POMPEO: In exchange for that (=denuclearization of NK),
President Trump’s been very clear: We’re prepared to provide a set of security
arrangements that gives them comfort that if they disband their nuclear
program, that the United States won’t attack them in the absence of that; and
second, a brighter future for the North Korean people. That’s the outlines of
the agreement that Chairman Kim and President Trump have made. We now need the
North Korean negotiators to begin to build out on those principles that the two
leaders have set forward.
Explanation ( https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/07300559/?all=1&page=3 ,
by T Suzuoki, DAILY SHINCH, July 30, 2019 “A security arrangements that
gives them comfort “ is a commitment of non-attack by USA suggesting withdrawal
of US-SK alliance.
They (SK Defense Minister
Jeong Kyeong-doo and acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on
Jun/03/2019) agreed to relocate CFC, now at the U.S. Forces Korea's Yongsan
Garrison base in Seoul, to the US Camp Humpheys in
Pyeongtaek, citing operational efficiency.(snip)
At the US SK Defense
Ministers' meeting, Shanahan and Jeong agreed on the early transfer of wartime
OPCON of Korean forces to Seoul, and the relocation of the South Korea-U.S. CFC
to Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, as opposed to the SK Defense Ministry
compound in Yongsan, Seoul, which was discussed in 2018.(snip)
Explanations ( https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/06071730/?all=1 ,
by T Suzuoki, DAILY SHINCH, July 7, 2019): "Unlike NATO Treaty (chapter
5), there is not clause of automatic intervention in the Mutual Defense Treaty
Between the United States and the Republic of [South] Korea. Relocation of CFC
reduces possibilities of military conflict between US and NK where intervention
by US military needs time-consuming approval by President or Congress.
Relocation of CFC to means withdrawal of key military intervention of US Army
and cursory support by Navy and Air Force in emergency. The early transfer
of wartime operational control (OPCON) of Korean Forces from US to Seoul
suggests reduction of USFK, because, in US law, small number of US military can
be under the foreign commander."
[6] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-southkorea/acting-pentagon-chief-says-no-need-to-restore-suspended-us-south-korea-military-drills-idUSKCN1T30BT ,
by Idrees Ali, AFP, June 2, 2019. SEOUL (Reuters) - Acting US Defense
Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Sunday that for now it was not necessary to
resume major joint military exercises with South Korea that were suspended in
the last year to support diplomatic efforts with North Korea.
Anonymous
13 comments:
USA condemned GSOMIA withdrawal by SK, and SK replied with insult [1, 2]. In addition, Special Advisor of SK said, “The biggest obstacle for NK-SK relations is the UN Command [3] and China and Japan should provide aide to NK neglecting intention of USA [4].” US-SK alliance seems to be in divorce crisis.
[1] http://www.donga.com/en/article/all/20190905/1839354/1/Former-USFK-commander-Seoul-s-push-for-early-return-of-U-S-bases-surprising, The Dong-A Ibo, Sept/05/2019/09. (Former USFK commander: Seoul’s push for early return of U.S. bases ‘surprising)
[2]https://www.worldtribune.com/seoul-to-washington-just-shut-up-about-intel-sharing-agreement-that-impacts-u-s-forces/, by World Tribune, Sept/03/2019 (Seoul to Washington: Just shut up about intel-sharing agreement that impacts U.S. forces)
[3] http://www.chosunonline.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/09/10/2019091080020.html, Chosun Online Sept/10/2019/09.
Special Advisor to the President of SK, Moon Chung-in said, “In current situation, making use of the US-SK alliance poises NK-SK relations. The biggest obstacle for NK-SK relations is the UN Command.”
[4]
https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/russia-china-should-join-dialogue-between-us-707381.html, by Mohammad Ali, Sept/08/2019.
"At this stage, dialog between the United States and North Korea is necessary, right now everything depends on them, during the next stages Russia, China and Japan have to pitch in, it is necessary to restore the six-way talks," Moon said. He added that as the United States had no intention of providing aid to North Korea, other countries had to do it instead.”
Currently, USA, Japan, Australia and India adopt “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) “Strategy prevent the expansion of China's power in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Also, exclusion of Huawei is conducted to win development competition of 5G and AI technologies [1, 2, 3].
As Samsung is the biggest manufacturer of semiconductor in the world, if China get Samsung technologies after withdrawal of USA-SK alliance, it may provide fatal damage in competition of 5G development by USA [3]. USA does not want such a situation [4]. Samsun occupies 22% of GNP of SK, its decline result in decline of SK.
[1] https://www.zdnet.com/article/alleged-trump-administration-docs-show-military-weapons-a-5g-concern/ by Corinne Reichert, ZDNet, Jan/29/2018 (Alleged Trump administration docs show military weapons a 5G concern)
Saying China is poised to become the global leader in 5G and AI, the US government has suggested mandating 5G standards to protect its physical and virtual borders, as well as working with allies to deploy 5G in developing nations, according to documents Axios reported as being prepared by a senior US government official.
[2] https://www.techradar.com/news/how-the-5g-network-could-benefit-the-military, by Jamie Carter, TechRadar, Jun/13/2019 (How the 5G network could benefit the military).
It’s all about two of the dominant superpowers in the world, China and the USA. Although there are plenty of companies from around the world that are building 5G mobile networks (Nokia, Samsung, Ericsson, to name but three), a seriously big player across the world is Huawei. (snip)
Moreover, any 5G network’s vulnerability in the event of a war – perceived or otherwise – is magnified because of how 5G is expected to revolutionize militaries across the world. Here’s how 5G could affect the military.------
[3] https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/07161730/, T Suzuoki, DAILY SHINCO, July/18/2019
The stage of China containment has expanded from ocean to technology. (snip) Now the battlefield in the US and China is 5G where speed and capacity of communications will dramatically increase. 5G will have fatal influence on not only in the country’s civilian sector but also in its military sector.
[4] https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/07121745/?all=1&page=3, T Suzuoki, DAILY SHINCO, July/12/2019
As main plans of Samsung and Skhynix are within range rocket of NK, at the emergency NK can destroy them to provide shortage of semiconductor in the world. (snip)
After withdrawal of USA-SK alliance, China has strong influence on Unified Korea and its semiconductor manufacturing. Neither the world's semiconductor users nor the US government want China’s dominance in semiconductor manufacturing. Non-Korean capital wants to establish semiconductor manufacturing system outside of Korea.
Thanks Anonymous
For your interesting observations and links on 5G and AI.
Meanwhile TKMS and Saab have released some details, almost at the same time, on their latest generation AIP, including:
https://defpost.com/subcon-2019-thyssenkrupp-marine-systems-unveils-4th-generation-fuel-cell-system/
and https://www.janes.com/article/89328/sweden-set-to-test-double-stirling-aip-plant
Regards
Pete
Recent article in “THE NATIONAL INTEREST” showed the likelihood of withdrawal the US military from SK was less than 50% [1], but, I think the likelihood is higher than 50%, because deterioration of US-SK alliance is considerably advanced.
Leakage of advanced technologies such as 5G and F-35 to China after withdrawal the U.S. military from SK will be one of the major issues.
[1] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/will-re-elected-donald-trump-withdraw-us-military-south-korea-78906, Robert Kelly, THE NATIONAL INTEREST, Sept/08/2019, (Will a Re-Elected Donald Trump Withdraw the U.S. Military from South Korea?)
Hi Pete
TKMS is developing methanol reforming fuel cell (MRFC) with SENER to avoid risk by hydrogen. Carbon dioxide exhaust which is main issue of MRFC is improved [1]. I once heard that improved FC would be developed before establishment of MRFC. Development of MRFC in SENAR started in 2012. When does TKMS realize MRFC-AIP submarine? Siemens which developed hydride FC does not welcome adoption of MRFC.
MK III V4-275R for Soryu is 4-cylinder double acting type Stirling engine which is compact and high performance. The fifth generation Stirling engine (MK V V4-275R?) belongs to this family [4]. Though the footprint of MK V is as same as MK IV, its output increased twice (150kW). Combustion chamber of MK V may be significantly improved.
[1] http://www.revistanoticias.sener/en/news/aip-system-for-submarines/50/
[2]
http://www.engineeringandconstruction.sener/press-releases/sener-and-hdw-announce-an-industrial-agreement-for-the-production-of-a-methanol-reformer-system-for-aip-for-non-nuclear-submarines
[3]http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2018/11/kockums-mark-5-stirling-engine-for-a26.html
[4]https://www.janes.com/article/89328/sweden-set-to-test-double-stirling-aip-plant
Regards
Hi Anonymous
Thankyou so much for your comments on Swedish versus German-Spanish AIP.
I'll publish them in an article on Monday.
Have a good weekend.
Regards
Pete
With the India-South Korea defense industrial agreement, September 2019, I wonder if there is a secret Indian assistance on nuclear weapons aspect? https://pib.gov.in/newsite/pmreleases.aspx?mincode=33.
Hi Pete (Sep 14, 2019, 7:24:00 AM)
There is no information on secret Indian assistance with development of SK nuclear weapon. But, from the economical and geopolitical viewpoints, I do not think there is not. Collapse of Soviet in early 1990th resulted in huge leakage of military technology from former Soviet. But, Indian economy is doing well shown in its recent growth of GDP (6-8% annual growth). India need not earn money by selling nuclear weapon technology. Leakage of nuclear from Pakistan to North Korea is based on bribery which is not different government-government negotiation. From the viewpoint of geopolitics , China and India have confrontation in land and sea (Kashmir, the Indian Ocean etc.) and recent close relationship among India, USA, Australia and Japan should be considered. Selling nuclear technology to SK never results in good effect on said relationship.
Korean, whether he or she belongs to Conservatives or Left Wing, thinks destiny of Korea has been decided by third party. Indigenous nuclear weapon is attractive for policy makers in South Korea. It will be strong driving force to unify North and South Koreas, but, on the shelf nuclear does not has driving force for the unification.
Regards
Hi Anonymous (at Sep 15, 2019, 2:09)
Thank you for your response to my question: "With the India-South Korea defense industrial agreement, September 2019, I wonder if there is a secret Indian assistance on nuclear weapons aspect?"
Yes Soviet/Russian nuclear weapon advice to South Korea is more likely than Indian.
Your South? "Korean, whether he or she belongs to Conservatives or Left Wing, thinks destiny of Korea has been decided by third party. Indigenous nuclear weapon is attractive for policy makers in South Korea." is interesting.
If the "third party" is the US then it is quite possible many South Koreans resent the US directly negotiating with North Korea without South Korea being part of the talks.
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete (Sept./16/2019)
Your insight into South Korean’s sentiment explains recent NK’s behavior well as follows [1, 2].
(Question) NK is furious at SK repeating short range ballistic missile launches and blame. Why?
(Answer by Suzuoki) Because SK betrayed NK. Backdoor diplomatic negotiation by information agencies in both countries realized the first US-NK summit meeting in June 2018. SK cut in here and pretended to handle the summit meeting. If SK was not involved, public anger exploded "We are not involved our fateful meeting?” NK had accepted the involvement-request by SK and SK must have committed pay money for SK. But, SK did not pay money for NK by refusal of Trump administration. Series of missile launches by NK are “invoices”.
(Question) Does the relationship between Korea and North Korea go completely wrong?
(Answer) That is right. We should not be tricked by "reconciliation" propaganda of Moon administration. SK conflicts Japan and is pincered from southern and northern sides (Japan and NK) for the first time in four hundred years. USA should have helped SK. But, Moon administration listen to China more than USA, and tries to send money to NK who is developing nuclear weapon. USA does not help SK [2].
[1] “Moon Jae-in Administration provides the first time isolation in four hundred years. Pincered by Japan and North Korea” by T Suzuoki, DAILY SHINCHO, Aug/20/2019, http://topics.smt.docomo.ne.jp/article/dailyshincho/world/dailyshincho-578581[2] “At G7 meeting, President Trump said, “President Moon is untrustworthy.””, FNN, Aug/26/2019.
[2]https://www.fnn.jp/posts/00423006CX/201908262030_CX_CX, During the discussions on diplomacy and security by the G7 leaders at Biarritz in Aug/2019, President Trump said, “Moon Jae-in is untrustworthy. “ According to a government official, President Trump further said, “Kim Jong-un said to me, “Moon Jae-in is a liar.”” At Day 2 dinner meeting, President Trump asked, “Why such a person (=Moon Jae-in) becomes President?” Attending leaders were surprised.
Hi Pete
South Korea (SK) will withdraw GSOMIA between Japan and SK and will refuse demand of US $ 5 billion of defense contribution by US. These may result in withdrawal of US troop from SK. This causes withdrawal of US-SK alliance and SK will need new nuclear umbrella. Now, representative conservative media, The Chosun Ilbo proposed nuclear armament in its editorial [1-3].
[1] “South Korean conservatives start saying USA withdraw us because of Moon Jae-in and only way is nuclear armament”,T.Suzuoki, Daily Shincho, Nov/11/2019
https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/11111631/
[2]“[Editorials] Trump Opens Money Without Nuclear Security”, The Chosun Ilbo, Nov/09/2019.
http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/11/07/2019110703982.html
“It has enjoyed peace and development by preventing the Russian threat. However, the populism between the US president who has never experienced and the South Korean president who has never experienced a country is like a tsunami crossing a security breakwater. At the moment, the United States is openly discussing nuclear weapons, a nuclear-sharing agreement, and relocation of tactical nuclear weapons. Find the light in a crisis.”
[3]“[Editorial] Increased US Military Contributions Should Unlock Security Shackles”, The Chosun Ilbo, Nov/09/2019.
http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/11/08/2019110803936.html
“No matter what administration is in the United States, it is likely to continue demanding more defense contributions. If so, our sharing of the security burden of the United States would be more helpful for both countries. Trump did not oppose the ROK-Japan nuclear armament. Take advantage of this opportunity to gain security benefits that are worth more than your contribution. It is the government's responsibility to carry out such a vision and to carry out the action to pioneer the country's destiny.”
Regards
Hi Anonymous (at November 13, 2019 at 2:41 PM)
Certainly there are strong comments at [1] https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/11111631/?all=1 from Japanese academic Takashi Suzuki about the US-South Korea alliance.
I noticed Suzuki has written a book called “U.S.-Korean Alliance Disappearance”. When did he write “U.S.-Korean Alliance Disappearance” ?
Strong comments (a "War of Words"?) are also in South Korea newspaper editorials at Chosun Ilbo editorials at [2] and [3].
---------------------
I have done a bit of research on US South Korea relations:
A. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-the-republic-of-korea/ indicates:
"People-to-people ties between the United States and the R.O.K. have never been stronger are strong...Underscoring the strength of the U.S.-R.O.K. alliance, President Moon’s first overseas trip after his inauguration was to the United States in June 2017. In November 2017, President Trump made the first state visit to the Republic of Korea by a U.S. President in 25 years."
B. https://www.usfk.mil/ has very positive comments on the US - SK military relationship. See Twitters in side panel on the right.
For example
C. https://twitter.com/USForcesKorea/status/1195133106228826112 On November 14, 2019 said
"#GenMilley [who is Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the whole US Armed Forces]
"reiterated the United States' firm and unwavering commitment to the alliance & continued commitment to providing extended deterrence during the MCM yesterday. #AllianceStrongU.S. Forces Korea added,
#GenMilley met with his #ROK counterpart, Gen. Hanki Park, today for the 🇺🇸-🇰🇷 Military Committee Meeting in Seoul. Both leaders acknowledged the critical nature of multinational partnerships and agreed to further strengthen efforts for regional peace and…
and
D. https://twitter.com/thejointstaff/status/1194807934695424000
"The Joint Staff...The #USROKAlliance 🇺🇸-🇰🇷 is ironclad and vital to promoting peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia."
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete (November 15, 2019 at 3:11 PM)
“U.S.-Korean Alliance Disappearance” was published on Oct/17/2018.
Regards
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