Anonymous reports that
now we are going to experience the most revolutionary change in US alliance
relations in Northeast Asia since the Korean War.
According to the most
influential Japanese commentator on Korean matters, Takabumi Suzuoki [1], in
the near future, the US and South Korean (SK) alliance will be
eliminated [2]. The geopolitical structure of the "red team"
(China/Russia/North Korea (NK)) vs the "blue team" (US/Japan/SK) might change to
China/Russia/Unified K vs US/Japan. The current border confrontation of the red
and blue teams along the 38th parallel might shift to the Sea of Japan (the New Acheson Line).
"SK is secretly
establishing a nuclear propelled submarine and is going to
equip it with nuclear missiles from NK. Such a situation is a nightmare for the
blue team, but it is possible."
[1] Suzuoki predicted the
eventual elimination of the US-SK alliance years ago. Many predictions by
Suzuoki have been realized.
[2] The SK President,
Moon Jae-inn, and Trump are expecting the elimination of the SK-US alliance.
The recent withdrawal of SK from the SK-Japan intelligence sharing agreement,
known as "General Security of Military
Information Agreement (GSOMIA)" is one of the signs of the crumbling
US-SK alliance.
Pete Comment
Trump's policy of
bilateral talks with NK's Kim Jung-on, with minimal US confidential or
publically demonstrated consultation with SK, has shaken SK.
SK's fear of growing
(near-neighbour) Chinese economic and military power has led to SK efforts to strengthen
relations with China. This has been at the expense of SK relations with the US.
Trade disputes between the US and SK also have
increased tension. Additionally the Trump induced US-China trade dispute has
impacted the SK economy and SK strategic confidence.
10 comments:
this is an interesting theory, but it doesn't sound plausible to implement...
an SK SSN or SSBN with a NK N-missile? The world must be madder than I thought.
But considering China's incorrigible attachment to the 'second island chain' 'sphere of maritime influence theory', such an idea which would have been outlandish 3 years ago, now sounds not so strange/mad.
whichever 'god' that is 'stage managing' this must have an extremely goofy sense of humor :(
A military coup will occur before a north Korea led unification ever starts followed by another decade of military dictator led government.
Korea never learns and will probably not change in any foreseeable future.
@Pete
The timing of such an analysis by a Japanese commentator probably says far more about ROK/Japan relations than it does about the future of the Korean peninsula. Taiwan has better chance of folding into China than South Korea into Bestest Korea, and that is a country where 70% of the population self identify as separate nation despite the One China policy. North Korea would never accept unification unless its government was the sole government and the South would never accept such terms. As for a military alliance, that seems almost as far fetched - the North has bloodied the ROK military several times in the past decade. Neither side would offer its most sensitive tech (a fictional SSBN, actual short ranged SLBMs) to the other. Also clearly such an action would result in total withdrawal of US forces and any support in any economic or military situation that might befall them - it is unlikely China could completely compensate for that economic dislocation, if nothing else.
This analysis is pure fantasy. The Japanese commentator I suspect doesn't even believe it; he is making things up and acting in bad faith due to the current animosity between Korea and Japan that seems to only be forever escalating. The much more real split will be 'team blue' operating as two separate teams - US/ROK/ROC and US/Japan, with never the two mixing in any conflict or future exercise. We'll see what happens at the next RIMPAC.
Cheers,
Josh
Yes, to all comments above.
A friendly unification of Korea is unlikely given the 2 sides are more accustomed to trading torpedos, shells, bullets, special forces incursions and loudspeaker slogans.
While China sees NK as a buffer zone against Western capitalist US led forces the US and Japan probably equally value a Western capitalist SK as a buffer zone against Chinese/NK communist forces.
Its surprising how short-sighted and heated Japanese-SK relations have become. Yes one side turned on a radar...so?!
Pete
Hi Pete
Based on South Korean Newspaper [2,3], Suzuoki reported “Declaration of Nuclear Armament by South Korea in 2002” [1]. SK will build nuclear submarine which can equipped with SLBM, and North Korea has nuclear warhead technology. North and South Koreas are unified without abolition of nuclear weapon in North Korea, Unified Korea will have SSBN.
[1]https://business.nikkei.com/atcl/report/15/226331/082200063/?P=3&mds (“SK aims Declaration of Nuclear Armament in 2002” by Suzuoki, Nikkei Business, Aug/28/2016.)
[2]
https://japanese.joins.com/article/804/215804.html?servcode=200§code=200&cloc=jp|main|top_news (“Korean Navy also prepares the possession of SLBM --- accelerates building of 3000-ton class submarine”, JoongAng Ilbo, May/18/2016.)
South Korean Navy Authorities are going to equip SLBM in 3000ton-class. Military personnel said, “North Korea is recently developing SLBM to be equipped in 2000-ton class submarine, but South Korean Navy can equip powerful SLBM in the early 2020s when 3000-ton class is built.”
[3]https://news.joins.com/article/20085844?cloc=joongang|home|topnews1 (“Korean SLBM is already in development… Placement four years later”, JoongAng Ilbo, May/27/2016)
Lee Chung-gun, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Policy said, “North Korea is manufacturing SLBM by applying Russian surface-to-Air missile, S-300. But, I heard that South Korea applies more stable technology based on cold launch technology which South Korea obtained from Russia in exchange for economic cooperation loan.”
[4]https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2018/03/28/south-korea-eyes-french-design-for-indigenous-nuclear-sub-sources-say/ (“South Korea eyes French design for indigenous nuclear sub, sources say” by Jeff Jeong, DefenseNews, Mar/28/2018.)
South Korea launched a clandestine nuclear sub-building project in 2003. The project, code-named “362 initiative,” was canceled a year later when the plan became public and was brought to the attention of the International Atomic Energy Agency [4].
“During the 2003 project, we finished works of basic design for indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, as well as of a miniaturized nuclear reactor,” said Moo Keun-sik, a retired Navy captain who had led the “326 initiative.” “South Korea has enough ability to design and develop its own nuclear submarine.”
Moon said the South Korean effort would need foreign technical assistance on weapons integration. “Designing and building a nuclear-powered submarine is no problem for South Korean premier shipbuilders, but for integration of weapons and other equipment into the submarine platform, we may need some help from France or others,” he said.
[4] Design of nuclear reactor for submarine was said to be obtained from OKBM of Russia keeping a secret from IAEA.
Regards
Hi Anonymous
Yes. Certainly if the main weapon of South Korea's new 3,000 tonne submarine class is land attack cruise and then ballistic missiles it would not make sense for their warheads to only be conventional in the next 10 years.
This is especially true against nuclear missile armed North Korea.
Any country as advanced in nuclear reactors as South Korea could put a simple one ton gun-type assembly [1] HEU nuclear weapons in its submarine launched cruise and then ballistic missiles. Also South Korea's reactors would produce Plutonium that could be used in slightly more complex implosion weapons. Both types of nuclear weapon were "perfected" by the mid 1940s.
[1] see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design#Gun-type_assembly_weapon
Regards
Pete
@Pete:
The original nuclear weapons were 10,000lbs. That isn't something that readily translates to a missile short of a Titan II. I've no doubt Korea has done some studies on warhead design, as has Japan, but miniaturization into cruise missile sized weapons is not a given, especially with a gun design. Note that it isn't clear the DRPK can mount a nuclear warhead on its ballistic missiles either.
Cheers,
Josh
Possibility of coup in SK is pointed out, but this possibility seems to be rather low [1-3].
[1] https://japan-indepth.jp/?p=42902 by Park Too Jin (President of Korea International Institute), Japan-in depth, Nov/20/2018.
In 2018 April, Moon Jae-in received report “coup conspiracy by SK military document”. Joint investigation team has investigated Park ex-President, ex-Chief of Department of Security and ex- Commander of Intelligence Headquarters for 104 day, but neither testimony nor evidence on coup conspiracy was found. But, during this investigation, Intelligence Headquarters of South Korean Military was exchanged by people who appease NK achieving exclusion of conservatives.
[2]https://business.nikkei.com/atcl/report/15/226331/120600206/?P=6, by T Suzuoki, Nikkei Business, Dec/07/2018.
In hearing by US expert, he asked me “Is coup by SK military possible?” I answered, “ It is regarded impossible.”
[3] https://business.nikkei.com/atcl/report/15/230558/122600036/, by Toshimitsu Shigemura, Nikkei Business, Dec/27/2018
Korean troops are prohibited from moving backwards to Seoul to prevent coups. In addition, when units above the division move, it is obliged to notify the neighboring divisions in the front, rear, left and right.
Neither talented and promising soldiers are appointed to the key positions of the Ministry of Defense or the Chief of Staff of Army, Navy and Air Force. Loyalty to the president is biggest requirement for the appointment. In addition, each unit has “political officer for security” who has kept an eye on the behaviors of the commander and unit officers.
Regards
Hi Josh [at Sep 6, 2019, 8:54]
True. The WWII gun-type Little Boy and implosion Fat Man tech were heavy, hence heavy bomber drop only.
So in the 1950s much lighter smaller missile suitable warheads came in, eg:
A. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design#Fusion-boosted_fission_weapons and
B. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design#Two-stage_thermonuclear_weapons
I don't know whether Pakistan intends to (or has) arm/ed its Babur torpedo tube launched cruise missiles with A. or B. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babur_(cruise_missile)#Design
I think South Korean research and intelligence collection since the 1980s will have produced reliable designs for A. and B. on hardcopy file in Seoul somewhere.
Problems include North Korea may be willing to go to war with SK before SK fields nuclear weapons.
Japan and the (non-Trump) US would also be very nervous about SK having nuclear weapons.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Sep 8, 2019, 11:29]
Yes some parts of the Japanese media figure believe a peacefully united SK and NK (with nuclear propelled submarines and sharing NK's nuclear weapons) is possible in the short-medium term
Still, I will believe it when English language Reuters and statements by the US Secretary of State and US Secretary of Defense state such a peaceful NK-SK union is possible or even desirable.
Regards
Pete
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