Estimated Production Costs of Current-Future Lithium-ion Batteries for Submarine

Further to Submarine Matters' Cost of Lithium-ion Batteries One Major Reason Why RAN Won't Adopt Them, of October 21, 2016.

Thanks to new data, we have more insight into the price of Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs).

12 million yen/battery-module for LIBs is a reasonable price, though it looks very expensive. Both operating life and energy density of LIBs are twice as much as those of Lead-acid Batteries (LABs) according to Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD). The price of LIBs actually corresponds to four times (=  twice operating life x twice energy density) the price of LABs.

Translation of Parts of Sources [1] and [2] Produces

[1] http://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/tyousakai/juyoukadai/energy/12kai/sanko2.pdf

"Quantitative Research on Scenario for Realization of Low Carbon Society”

 by Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), Feb/16/2016, reference 2, page 9.

[2] http://www.jst.go.jp/lcs/documents/item/s09_2-5.pdf

 "Construction of Technology Scenario based on Structuring of Basic Technology: Secondary Battery” by JST, on page 36, is Figure 2-5-3 Relationship between production cost (yen/Wh) and scale for lithium ion batteries

(Bars mean labor, equipment, utilities (electricity, etc) and raw material costs from top to bottom)

2.5.2 Calculation of Production Cost of Lithium Ion Battery by Sructuring Pocedure

(1) Calculation of Production Cost by Structuring of Production Process

Cost calculations show that the production cost of cylindrical LIBs with annual production scale of 10 GWh is 17 yen/Wh as shown in Figure 2-5-3 (standard case, middle). Raw material and utilities costs in variable cost are 77% and 4%, respectively. Equipment and labor costs in fixed cost are 15% and 3%, respectively. Raw material cost is highest.

TABLE 
Current Status and Future Senarios for Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) [based on Sources [1] and [2]?]

		Current (2016)	FY 2020	FY 2030
		Ni based battery	Ni based battery	Li2O based battery
Production Scale [GWh/y]		1	10	10
Yield [%]		66	90	90
Energy Density [Wh/kg]		250	340	500
Cathode/Anode		LiNi0.85Co0.12Al0.3O2 /graphite	LiNi0.85Co0.12Al0.3O2 /graphite	Co-Li2O/SiO
Cathode/Anode Capacity Density [nAh/g]		200/300	270/380	440/2000
Ratio of actual capacity vs theoretical capacity of Cathode /Anode		0.71/0.78	0.97/0.99	0.75/0.75
Production Costs [Yen/Wh]
Variable Cost	Raw matterial	10.2	4.8	2.8
	Utilities	0.5	0.4	0.3
Fixed Cost		3.2	1.4	2.1
Total Production Cost  [Yen/Wh]		13.9	6.6	5.2

COMMENTS ON TABLE

As the LIBs cost and efficiency estimates progress from 2016, to 2020, to 2030:

-  Production (in terms of GWh/y) Scale increases by a factor of 10.

-  Yield increases frrom 66% to 90. [how is Yield calculated?]

-  Energy Density, in Wh/kg, increases from 250, to 340, to 500.

-  Cathode/Anode substances change from LiNi0.85Co0.12Al0.3O2 /graphite  to  Co-Li2O/SiO

-  note that "Cathode/Anode Capacity Density [nAh/g]"  AND  "Ratio of actual capacity vs 

   theoretical capacity of Cathode /Anode"

-  Production Costs (both Variable and Fixed) decline.

-  Total Production Costs, in terms of Yen/Wh, decline.

Other conclusions?

Friend - all the translation, calculations and data.

Pete - derived COMMENTS ON TABLE