October 10, 2016

"Japan not at all likely to assist Taiwan in submarine building"

Anonymous in Comments at 29/9/16 8:36 AM conveyed a Dr Kashin's views about the strong unlikelihood of Japan, the US and others providing submarine assistance to Taiwan. This is in useful contrast to my September 21, 2016 article Taiwan's Teadrop Style Future Submarine - Japanese Assistance?

Dr Kashin [1] a Russian defense expert, wrote in Sputnik News [article of Dec/09/2015, https://jp.sputniknews.com/japan/20151209/1290996.html in Japanese] that submarine technology transfer from Japan to Taiwan is highly unlikelyIf you right-click mouse to translate Kashin's article you will see he said, along the lines:

Only the US can challenge China by anticipating the Submarine Project of Taiwan. The US could  obviously assist Taiwan in a joint project on combat and sonar systems. But, issues on the energy system and structural elements, which are diesel submarine specific, are difficult to solve. Also, in the US, there are very strong opponents against introduction of non-nuclear submarines. The opponents have blocked any investment or technological development for manufacturing non-nuclear submarines.

As Japan has many problems with China, the Japanese government will never make a decision which triggers a harsh, long-term, confrontation with the Chinese government. 

An indigenous Taiwanese submarine development and building project, if it drew from foreign technology, could possibly be implemented. If the US participated in the project as a major partner of Taiwan, the US would herself, draw huge criticism from the Chinese government. Possible partners with Taiwan, excluding Japan are France, Germany, Sweden, etc. 

Japanese submarines are too big for Taiwan. However, if a contract with Taiwan were drawn up  [by any assisting countries] it would be kept very secret.  

[1] Dr. Vassily Kashin has a Ph.D. in Political Science, is a senior research fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University [one of Russia's top universities] - Higher School of Economics. He is also a leading research fellow at the Institute of the Russian Far East.

Anonymous & Pete


Anonymous said...

Hi Pete

Japan does not assist submarine development of Taiwan not because of fear of CPR wrath but also because of compliance with the Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and China, peace treaty concluded between the PRC and Japan on Aug/12/1978.

The basic policy of international relations of Japan is respect of domination by law. As a first class country, Japan respects the international law or the decision by the International Judiciary. In the Case concerning Whaling in the Antarctic, Japan was defeated by Australia in Hague, and Japan obeyed the Hague decision though it was extremely unpleasant. PRC, one of the Permanent members of UNSC nigrected the international decision on the case of the South China Sea.


Peter Coates said...

Hi S

Yes Japan as a first world country honoring international law is important.

It is left to China (over the Hague ruling) and North Korea to disregard international law so often.

Still I'm concerned that Japan honoring international law is much reliant on US nuclear weapon protection.

The risk that a President Trump might remove the nuclear umbrella would be a worry for Japan just as it is a worry in Australia right now.