July 4, 2016

Australian Vote Totally Undecided - Swing Issues: Shipbuilding and Steel in South Australia

Vote Count Post 2016 Election

HOUSE OF REPS [4.10 PM. July 4]   79.3% of vote
LNP or Likely aligned
Could support LNP or ALP
ALP or Likely aligned
= 72
= 72
   1 Cathy McGowan 
 + 1 Katters
   1 NXT (declared in Mayo)
...1 NXT (leading in Grey)
 + 1 Greens
   1 Andrew Wilkie
LNP or ALP can probably count on 73 seats each, but either side need 76 (of total 150) seats to win and then form a Government. 

At 4.10 PM, July 4, the Australian Election count is more undecided than it was at the end of July 2 Voting Night. This situation is mainly caused by the tiny micro-party minority party NXT pulling ahead of LNP in the Electorate of Grey. Grey is in South Australia which includes Whyalla where Arrium steel is made (see below).

The main policies of South Australian based micro-party Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) can probably be described as warship/submarine building in South Australia and Whyalla/Arrium steelmaking in South Australia!

Vote count figures based on:


romingfree said...

The undecided election outcome has many ramifications including whether the Australian manufacture sector will survive, the differences between rich and poor within the Australian society or the economic dimensions within society which includes provisions of services, tax cuts and superannuation changes etc.

With the rising of the independent and small political parties it further muddies the water not only to form government but also to get legislation passed through both houses.

Then there is the question of who will lead the party that forms the government. In the case of the ALP Bill Shorten should be safe however the same can not be said for the Malcolm Turnbull of the LNP

Australia is in murky waters which may not be cleared for a while even as long as three yrs.

Peter Coates said...

Hi romingfree

The economy, poor and vulnerable indeed suffer in the disarry of Turnbull's taxcuts Election.

Turnbull probably hoped he Won and could get some sleep on June 2, But I reckon he would have gotten much shut-eye since the Election. He may lose his PM job in the next few weeks.


romingfree said...

This election seemed to be a clear cut election with two different arguments. The only policy the two major parties seemed to agree on was security of Aus borders and asylum seekers. Yet it has come to a probable hung parliament. After an eight week campaign one wonders if the electorate was just sick of all the arguments and slogan and decided to let both major parties know they were not listen to the people. This may explain the large number of independents and small parties.

Yes I think Mr Turnbull will be gone in the next couple of weeks but who will we get in his place is probably a bigger question. The skills set of next PM which ever side forms Government will have to be one of negotiation and compromise and perhaps Shorten has these skills from he previous life. We do live in interesting times not only internationally but now nationally

Peter Coates said...

Hi romingfree

I agree that the Electorate ignored LNP's unconvincing election pitch of tax/superannuation doing something over an uncontrollable 10 year period.

The ALP's pitch of saving Medicare from LNP destruction won the ALP many votes (and/or many seats) ALP had lost in 2013.

I agree Turnbull's days are numbered with a new LNP PM or ALP PM (probably Shorten) taking the helm.

I was hoping they'd be no continuation of the two month Election Campaign but the Who Rules Campaign has taken over for another long month.


romingfree said...

Well yes it could be a very long month until we know who will form government. I was talking to a LNP voter over coffee today and the point was made that this is the election you want to lose.