Industry Minister Christopher Pyne Preempts Major Defence Policy

Industry Minister Christopher Pyne in full flight. His backing of his home state (South Australia) over other states and his manner may not have made him totally Defence Force compatible.

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The Turnbull Government’s submarine build policies are becoming clearer in the direction of full build in Australia not just a 70% hybrid build as previously expressed. The policies of Defence Minister Marise Payne may have been pre-empted by Federal Minister for Industry, Christopher Pyne [Pyne/Payne will cause confusion…] when Christopher Pyne said the words below on Australia’s ABC, September 23, 2015 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-23/pyne-gives-strong-indication-of-adelaide-sub-build/6797870:

Ministers Christopher Pyne, Jamie Briggs give strong indication of Adelaide submarine build

Federal Industry Minister Christopher Pyne has given his strongest indication yet that a full domestic build of Australia's next fleet of submarines will take place in Adelaide.

During an interview on 891 ABC [radio] Adelaide [on September 23, 2015], the SA-based MP said he wanted the State and Federal Governments to work together.

"The SA Government and Federal Government, will come up [with] a proposal, I hope, for a full domestic build at Osborne,[in Adelaide, South Australia]" he said.

Firms from Germany, France and Japan are competing to build the submarines after former Prime Minister Tony Abbott broke his pre-election promise in 2013 and put the tender out to what he called a "competitive evaluation process".

The South Australian Government wants the Coalition to honour its previous commitment to build the replacement to the Collins Class fleet at Techport, the shipbuilding facility it owns at Osborne in Adelaide.

…Mr Pyne was tipped to take over as Minister for Defence from Kevin Andrews in Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's recent cabinet reshuffle but the role was instead handed to NSW Senator Marise Payne. [Pete’s Comment - perhaps it was thought Christopher Pyne would too strongly back the interests of South Australia over the interests of other states.]

[see full article]

Pete

Could Australia be Pyne's major weapons exporter? Unlikely.

ARTICLES

The Guardian (Australian edition) July 17, 2017 and The Canberra Times, July 15, 2017 have reported that:

Australia's Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne, has voiced enthusiasm about Australia becoming a major weapons exporter - perhaps on the scale of UK, French and German exports (see Table below). As Pyne mainly promotes shipbuilding from South Australia this is likely what he is talking about.

COMMENT

Major impediments to Pyne Vision are: 

-  Australia does not have an industrial base or equipment research sector large enough to develop 
   major weapon systems

-  put another way Australia does not enjoy the economies of scale to sell a high volume of weapons
   to the Australian domestic market that would make unit prices competitive or lower for foreign
   customers

-  Australia does not have the necessary labour efficiencies or productivity to compete against
   existing major arms exporters (think South Korea and Spain for surface ships). Also Singapore is
   highly efficient in labour productivity making it unlikely to buy from Australia.

-  Australia does not have the major advantage of being an established weapons supplier with an
   established sales structure in other countries. This is unlike all the exporters listed in the Table
   below (US, Russia, Germany, China, France etc)

-  Australia does not have the corporate financial depth to sell weapons at below market prices in
   order to secure contracts - then recoup revenue over the long term (eg. by charging higher for
   maintenance and spare parts, etc)

-  Australia is constrained by licences and intellectual property being held by major exporters to
   Australia (eg. US, Spain, UK and for the future submarine France.

-  Australia is not geographically positioned well to sell weapons to paying regional allies (except for 
   New Zealand). NOT to impoverished Pacific Islands, PNG, East Timor etc.

So what is Pyne really talking about?

New Zealand. It is the only country Australia has built major weapons system for, and sold those weapons to. But New Zealand is still a very small customer. The largest orders to NZ over the last 3 decades have been 2 Anzac-class frigates in the 1990s and 2 Protector-class OPVs in the 2000s. 

Offsets. Australia is partly justifying the large amounts of taxpayer money it is spending on F-35As by claiming that the much smaller scale Australian content and "sales" of some F-35 components will be a victory for Australian industry  

Pyne appears to focus most of his attention to ship and submarine building in Adelaide. It is highly unlikely that Australia could build and export Future Frigates, Futures Submarines or OPVs, to foreign countries. This is mainly because those countries that designed and hold the intellectual property rights to those weapons system would not want to lose business to artificially created Australian reselling or competition. 

Pyne's claims of a potential export benefits of Australian built weapons can mainly be seen as ways to divert criticism of the high prices Australia will be spending on F-35s, ships and submarines over the next 20 years. Pyne wants to maintain Australia's major policy direction - that is spending on the weapons sector should not be questioned in the way spending on the less deserving health, education, welfare, infrastructure and energy sectors is being questioned.

Pyne's words do not yecertify that he is out of touch with the realities of weapons exports.

Australia has long been geared to be a major weapons importer making it difficult for Australia to become a major weapons developer and exporter. Source is the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) database via The Canberra Times. 

Pete

Japan will need to follow Australia's military example regarding the US

Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

Aussie troops, US Army and Marines, fought Japanese forces in New Guinea in WWII (1942 to 1945). (Photo courtesy US and Australian Army).

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The above photograph depicts US General Westmoreland, Commander, US Military Assistance Command Vietnam, speaking to Aussie troopers, C Squadron, 1st Armoured Regiment about the enemy attack (in 1968) on Fire Support Base Coral, Vietnam. (Photo Australian Army)

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The US and Australia utilised the ANZUS Treaty to back Australia's (ongoing) military support for the US in Afghanistan. The initial component of Australia's support was the SAS. (Photo above courtesy news(dot)com9dot)au. 

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COMMENT

Australia is a dedicated supporter of US military ventures overseas (photos above). Australia spends a reasonable amount of money on defence - at 1.9% of GDP. Australia stands to gain from US armed forces and defence budget expansion. 

Japan has its own foreign and defence policy traditions and attitudes. However, I would say, that to maintain full US support in Northeast Asia Japan will need to:

-  support US ventures overseas (especially in the Middle East, a region that produces

   most of Japn's oil), and 

-  pay around 2% of GDP rather than only 1% on Japanese defence spending, and 

-  Japan needs to begin a (probably secret) nuclear program, and

-  spend much more maintaining US forces in Japan/Okinawa.

I offer this advice freely, at no extra cost, to the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MOD).

ABC ARTICLE

Australia's Government supported news agency ABC Online reports, 16 November 2016, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-16/pyne-flags-immense-opportunities-if-trump-expands-us-military/8029466:

"Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

By political reporter Francis Keany

Updated 34 minutes ago

RELATED STORY: Trump flags plans to spend billions on fresh military build-up

RELATED STORY: Opinion: Trump presidency's exciting, unimagined opportunities

MAP: United States

The [Australian] Federal Government says Australia is well positioned to take advantage of a "gigantic" expansion of the United States military flagged by the incoming Trump administration.

[Australian] Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also downplayed the prospect of the US demanding Australia increase its spending as a percentage of GDP.

Key points:

• Rudy Giuliani flags an aggressive expansion of America's military
• Government says as a close ally with the US the country is well positioned to benefit from the expansion
• Christopher Pyne says Australia is "pulling its weight" in both military spending and operations

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is reportedly a leading contender to become the next US Secretary of State, flagged an aggressive expansion of American forces.

Mr Pyne said Australia's strong links with the US would benefit defence manufacturing at home.

He told a submarine industry conference in Canberra, based on comments by Donald Trump, a half-a-trillion-dollar expansion of the US military was possible.

"A hundred new planes, 70 new naval vessels, 50 to 60,000 new army, 12 new marine corps, the opportunities for Australia, because of our very close relationship with the United States, are boundless," he said.

"We already have amazing companies like Austal and CEA and others that are part of the US military spend, they could expand."

Mr Pyne said Australia was "pulling its weight" not just in military spending but in terms of military operations with the US.

"President-elect Trump has called countries around the world who are US allies and are not at 2 per cent [of spending] strategic bludgers," Mr Pyne said.

"Fortunately we are not strategic bludgers because we are at 2 per cent of gross domestic product, and given the spend of the Turnbull Government over the next 10 years, I imagine that will be surpassed at some stage in the future."

He said the Government was staying "in close contact" with Mr Trump's transition team.

"We are very much linked into the Trump team," Mr Pyne said.

Mr Giuliani earlier this week said Mr Trump's military strategy was focused around "peace through strength".

"If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetrical warfare, they may challenge you, but I doubt it," Mr Giuliani said.

"I am a big advocate of military spending."

Pete

Payne Reliever Pyne will become the sole Defence Minister

Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne (left) and Defence Minister, Marise Payne uneasily sharing the defence portfolio. Even their names Pyne-Payne are uneasily similar. 

(Photo courtesy The Australian).

PREDICTION

Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne who uneasily shares the defence portfolio with the actual Defence Minister, Marise Payne, will oust her by late February 2017.

Late December to early February is the most frequent period for Australian ministerial changes/shakeups.

REASONS

Christopher Pyne is an outspoken threat to an increasingly desperate Prime Minister Turnbull. Turnbull is barely clinging to office with a slim majority.

Marise Payne, emerged from obscurity in September 2015. She was very much the appointment of Turnbull - when Turnbull's stocks were high. As Turnbull's stocks decline (weakened by the 2016 Federal Election) Marise Payne's legitimacy declines.

The very quiet Marise Payne has missed opportunities, that the defence portfolio offers, for essential political grandstanding. 

Christopher Pyne is ambitious, extraverted and very senior to Marise Payne in time served as a Minister and Cabinet Minister.

Christopher Pyne has been frustrated, since becoming Defence Industry Minister (since 19 July 2016)  about having to frequently share decisions and functions with Marise Payne.

Marise Payne has largely completed her best role, policy review (2016 White Paper, accampanying documents) and oversaw policy presentation for the selection of the DCNS submarine (Shortfin).

Marise Payne probably has already overseen substantial planning concerning the Offshore Patrol Vessel and Future Frigate selection processes. Further selection and implementation work could be done under just one Defence Minister. 

Marise Payne (a Senator from NSW) has insufficiently performed large parts of a defence minister's role, for example international defence policy sound bites (why hasn't she criticised China over the South China Sea?). 

Marise can be moved, with honour, sideways, into another ministerial job that is heavy on policy review (health, education, welfare?). This also maintains the numbers of NSW politicians in the overall Turnbull Ministry.

Marise Payne's health may be putting pressure on her position.

MEDIA ARTICLE

DENNIS SHANAHAN of The Australian in part reported 29 November 2016 – http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/marise-payne-surgery-adds-to-reshuffle-rumours/news-story/479572c92b609e40d7ab27d5dcb28834:

 “Defence Minister Marise Payne’s illness and surgery have increased speculation in Coalition ranks that there will be a ministerial reshuffle [six senior portfolios] just before Christmas or in the first quarter of next year...Yesterday Senator Payne issued a statement about her absence for the past 10 days, revealing the surgery as questions about her future intensified. She said she expected a “full recovery” but did not say when she would return to work...

Senator Payne’s illness — an abdominal infection requiring surgery last weekend...suggesting Senator Payne may have to be relieved of her job...But yesterday she released a statement that said she would not attend the Senate again this week and “underwent surgery over the weekend to address a severe abdominal infection for which she had been previously receiving treatment. 

Senator Payne will have missed the final two weeks of the Parliamentary sitting year.

Some Liberal MPs have been critical of her performance as Defence Minister since the Prime Minister appointed her as the first woman to the post when he took over from Mr Abbott last year.

Senator Payne’s Defence portfolio was split and responsibility for the massive defence projects over the next decades given to Christopher Pyne as Minister for Defence Industry, a move seen as a weakening of her position."

Pete

DefMin Marise Payne's Industry Power passed to Pyne - New Ministry List

The most politically influential (industrial) part of Defence Minister Marise Payne's portfolio has been passed to a more senior politician. That senior politician is the new Defence Industry Minister, Christopher Pyne (below). Many instances of "Payne/Pyne" confusion will now occur.

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1.  Where I indicated in Australian Election and Shipbuilding (of July 13, 2016) that Prime Minister  Turnbull's imminent post Election Ministerial reshuffle would likely involve:

"However, [Defence Minister Marise Payne's] portfolio, with its domestically influential shipbuilding programs, is now attractive to others, including Abbott"..."Alternatively the centrist (and significantly South Australian) Christopher Pyne may take her position."

The message of a diminuation of Marise Paynes' defence industry power appears accurate. 

Mr Pyne has made unsolicited comments on submarine building policy for at least a year - as these articles on Submarine Matters reveal.

Just announced today (July 18, 2016) in Turnbull's post Election Ministerial reshuffle is Christopher Pyne's new role of Minister for Defence Industry.

"Defence Industry Minister (to work on the new defence plan). Pyne will work alongside Defence Minister Marise Payne." see Huffington Post (Australia edition), July 18, 2016.

2.  The official New Turnbull Ministry List of 18 July 2016 (in WORD and PDF) is here. It was in WORD now in html (admittedly not perfect) below. Payne and Pyne are redded for emphasis:

TURNBULL MINISTRY  -  18 JULY 2016

Title	Minister
Prime Minister	The Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP
Minister for Indigenous Affairs	Senator the Hon Nigel Scullion
Minister for Women	Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash
Cabinet Secretary	Senator the Hon Arthur Sinodinos AO
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Public Service	Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Counter-Terrorism	The Hon Michael Keenan MP
Minister Assisting the Cabinet Secretary	Senator the Hon Scott Ryan
Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for Cyber Security	The Hon Dan Tehan MP
Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister Assistant Minister for Cities and Digital Transformation	Senator the Hon James McGrath The Hon Angus Taylor MP
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources	The Hon Barnaby Joyce MP
Assistant Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources Assistant Minister to the Deputy Prime Minister	Senator the Hon Anne Ruston The Hon Luke Hartsuyker MP
Minister for Foreign Affairs	The Hon Julie Bishop MP
Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment	The Hon Steven Ciobo MP
Minister for International Development and the Pacific	Senator the Hon Concetta Fierravanti-Wells
Assistant Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment	The Hon Keith Pitt MP
Attorney-General (Vice-President of the Executive Council) (Leader of the Government in the Senate)	Senator the Hon George Brandis QC
Minister for Justice	The Hon Michael Keenan MP
Treasurer	The Hon Scott Morrison MP
Minister for Revenue and Financial Services Minister for Small Business	The Hon Kelly O’Dwyer MP The Hon Michael McCormack MP
Minister for Finance (Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate)	Senator the Hon Mathias Cormann
Special Minister of State	Senator the Hon Scott Ryan
Minister for Regional Development Minister for Local Government and Territories	Senator the Hon Fiona Nash Senator the Hon Fiona Nash
Minister for Infrastructure and Transport (Deputy Leader of the House)	The Hon Darren Chester MP
Minister for Urban Infrastructure	The Hon Paul Fletcher MP
Minister for Defence	Senator the Hon Marise Payne
Minister for Defence Industry (Leader of the House)	The Hon Christopher Pyne MP
Minister for Veterans’ Affairs Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Centenary of ANZAC	The Hon Dan Tehan MP The Hon Dan Tehan MP
Minister for Defence Personnel	The Hon Dan Tehan  MP
Minister for Immigration and Border Protection	The Hon Peter Dutton MP
Assistant Minister for Immigration and Border Protection	The Hon Alex Hawke MP
Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science	The Hon Greg Hunt MP
Minister for Resources and Northern Australia	Senator the Hon Matt Canavan
Assistant Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science	The Hon Craig Laundy MP
Minister for Health and Aged Care	The Hon Sussan Ley MP
Minister for Sport	The Hon Sussan Ley MP
Assistant Minister for Health and Aged Care	The Hon Ken Wyatt AM MP
Assistant Minister for Rural Health	Dr David Gillespie MP
Minister for Communications Minister for the Arts (Manager of Government Business in the Senate)	Senator the Hon Mitch Fifield Senator the Hon Mitch Fifield
Minister for Regional Communications	Senator the Hon Fiona Nash
Minister for Employment	Senator the Hon Michaelia Cash
Minister for Social Services	The Hon Christian Porter MP
Minister for Human Services	The Hon Alan Tudge MP
Assistant Minister for Social Services and Disability Services	The Hon Jane Prentice MP
Assistant Minister for Social Services and Multicultural Affairs	Senator Zed Seselja
Minister for Education and Training Assistant Minister for Vocational Education and Skills	Senator the Hon Simon Birmingham The Hon Karen Andrews MP
Minister for the Environment and Energy	The Hon Josh Frydenberg MP

      "Each box represents a portfolio. Cabinet Ministers are shown in bold type. As a general rule, there

      is one department in each portfolio.  However, there is a Department of Human Services in the Social

      Services portfolio and a Department of Veterans’ Affairs in the Defence portfolio. The title of a

      department does not necessarily reflect the title of a minister in all cases. Assistant Ministers in italics

      are designated as Parliamentary Secretaries under the Ministers of State Act 1952." 

   

      Pete