ASIO and AUKUS Submarine Security

Australia's security intelligence concerns include how the intelligence services of China, Russia and even more friendly proxies are trying to find cracks in the security architecture protecting AUKUS secrets. Major AUKUS submarine Top Secrets include the US S9G reactor and UK submarine reactors and the US's huge AN/BYG-1 Combat System (nuclear version) that would go into an Australian Virginia-class SSN.

Security intelligence is a topic the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) is naturally also interested in - in its Counter-Espionage and Protective Security missions. 

For example, note the following:

The ASIO Annual Report 2021-22 under sub-heading “Threats to our way of life”

“Espionage and foreign interference has supplanted terrorism as our principal security concern.

Multiple countries are aggressively seeking information about Australia’s strategic capabilities, economic and policy priorities, world-class research and development, and defence technologies.

We anticipate hostile foreign powers and their proxies will be particularly interested in obtaining information on AUKUS, the Quad and their associated initiatives.”

See mention of AUKUS in the ASIO Director-General’s Annual Threat Assessment 2022 

“For decades, foreign spies have been seeking information about Australia’s strategic capabilities, economic and policy priorities, world-class research and development, and defence technologies. 

Obviously the capabilities and decision-making around AUKUS fall squarely into that category. Foreign intelligence agencies will have already added them to their collection requirements—just as ASIO is already working to thwart them. That should surprise no one; it’s one of the reasons I’m flagging a more proactive approach to our security advice and engagement.”

Also see mentions of AUKUS in the ASIO Director-General’s Annual Threat Assessment 2023  namely: 

"As we progress AUKUS, it’s critical our allies know we can keep our secrets, and keep their secrets."

and

"Since the announcement of AUKUS, there’s been a distinct uptick in the online targeting of people working in Australia’s defence industry."

 
Further Comments

The US has a complex International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) regulatory regime that makes it easier to export some arms technologies to the UK and Australia and restricts arms exports to such countries as Russia and China.

Implications of that include:

-  ASIO officers are increasingly being embedded in Australia's Defence Department to oversee AUKUS security measures

-  the likelihood that there is an AUKUS security committee that includes ASIO, the FBI,  MI5 and other bodies as needed. They might regularly communicate by secure audio-visual link, a link that itself needs high level security protection.

Vetting

-  it is likely ASIO and other Government bodies (eg. the Defence Security and Vetting Service) participate in the vetting process of those wishing to have access to more sensitive  AUKUS technologies. 

-   it would be difficult for someone born in Russia or China gaining Top Secret (Compartmented) Clearance to work with AUKUS arms technologies. I held equivalent clearance.

China has a reputation of "getting at" relatives remaining in China by threatening to lower their Social Credit Score. That could be used to coerce or blackmail former citizens of the PRC who gain Australian citizenship who wish to have access to sensitive AUKUS technologies. 

-  Also, for very thorough necessary vetting it would be difficult for Australian vetting investigators to go ask, face-to-face, friends and relatives in Beijing or Moscow about the character and background of prospective defence employees applying for sensitive Australian government or company defence jobs. 

-  The alternate method of ASIO contacting other nations' security services to establish a potential  employees bona fides wouldn't work as intended (quite the opposite for AUKUS security) if those other security services are China's MSS or Russia's FSB.

-  UK and Australian citizens in Government or Companies working with more sensitive AUKUS technologies would likely need to satisfy US clearance methods including polygraphing. In any case some Australian companies have adopted polygraphing for civilian company Commercial-in-Confidence clearances. There are polygraph companies practicing here like Polygraph Australia and Australian Polygraph Services. Presumably there are inhouse government services.

US May Give Australia Short USE BY Date Virginias

When or if the US sells a second-hand Virginia SSN to Australia in 2033 Australia might get a nasty shock when it realises a once fueled Virginia likely has a shorter operating life than a twice fueled Los Angels SSN.

The amount of reactor usage is often quantified in years of use which also correlates to the time the reactor is fully active in port and also when it is underway. “Underway” might be measured in the distance in nautical miles the sub has traveled and at what speeds in knots.

Another way of measuring useful reactor life is the amount of efficiently fissionable U235 remaining vs perhaps more importantly the level of neutron poisons  build-up that inhibits efficient reactor operation.

Singapore's IMDEX Asia 2023: Little on Subs.

In terms of audio-visual coverage, submarine wise IMDEX ASIA 2023 in Singapore May 3-5, it appears submarine sellers didn't turn up in force.

Yet the Exhibitor List does include SAAB, Naval Group and TKMS. Did they display submarines?

I did notice Spanish Navantia S-80 submarine, in this alledged 2023 video, but that S-80 model may be from an earlier IMDEX ASIA. 

Also at another 2023? display, probably by TKMS, 24 seconds in I see 2 submarine models (maybe a Type 209 and 214?), see them at the lower left corner.

Singapore may not be receiving its 4 Invincible-class subs at the rapid rate of “all four submarinesin active service by 2024” There may be at least one, RSS Impeccable, by August 2023.

Canada hopes to join Aukus

The Guardian, May 9, 2023, reports: 

"Canada hopes to join Aukus defence pact, says report

...Canada’s defence minister has said the country is “highly interested” working closer on defence technology with Australia, Britain and the US, after reports that the country wants to join the Aukus defence pact.

...“This is a deal for nuclear submarines, which Canada is not currently or any time soon in the market for. Australia is,” Justin Trudeau told reporters at the time.

But Canada’s exclusion from the alliance was seen as something of a snub for the country, and the prime minister faced sharp domestic criticism over Canada’s exclusion, with his Conservative rival suggesting the prime minister was “not taken seriously by our friends and allies around the world”.

...But amid growing criticism that the governing Liberals have neglected defence and intelligence investments, Canada faces stiff competition to gain access to the group as other nations, such as Japan and South Korea, also make a case for inclusion..."

"Russia looks East to trade" : Parallel Universe?

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/05/09/russia-looks-east-to-trade/

Do Chinese carriers only play a theatrical role?...

From Deng Xiaoci and Guo Yuandan of China's Global Times, May 6, 2023:

“Do Chinese carriers only play theatrical role? Shandong aircraft carrier fleet’s first Western Pacific drills effectively refute such smears

Photo: PLA Navy

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy on [May 6, 2023] released videos and pictures of just-concluded combat readiness drills of the Shandong aircraft carrier fleet, saying that the fleet entered the Western Pacific for the first time in a systematic and large-scale manner, which according to Chinese experts, effectively refuted the Western media's smears that Chinese aircraft carriers only "play theatrical role but pose little threat."

The fleet of PLA Navy Shandong aircraft carrier has recently returned to their home port, after concluding combat readiness drills in the Western Pacific, according to the PLA Navy official WeChat official account on [May 6, 2023].

During the drills, the Shandong aircraft carrier fleet entered the Western Pacific for the first time in a systematic and large-scale manner. The PLA Navy said that faced with the complex situation of foreign warships and planes taking turns to conduct reconnaissance, the fleet quickly and accurately grasped the situation, and efficiently controlled the actions of troops, and always responded positively and handled things safely, effectively improving its actual combat capabilities.

Photo: PLA Navy  [wit a Shenyang J-15 coming in for landing] 

These important real-world combat-like drills responded to the enemy's provocations, Song Zhongping military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Saturday.

Song said that the official release indicates that aircraft carrier will play its due role in the military actions in the Taiwan Straits. And that besides combat and supply capabilities, Chinese aircraft carriers have also formed joint combat capability with other PLA forces, Song noted.

Reuters on [May 5, 2023] said that it could be more than a decade before China would be able to mount a credible carrier threat far from its shores, citing four military attaches and six defense analysts familiar with regional naval deployments.

A military expert who requested not to be named told the Global Times that the recent drills conducted by the Shandong aircraft carrier fleet, based on the official release, demonstrate its joint combat capability with PLA forces including air forces as well as underwater forces, showing that Shandong's first far sea maneuvers started from a strong position.

Photo: PLA Navy [with pilots "scrambling" to their J-15s]

Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force spotted a PLA Navy flotilla consisting of the aircraft carrier Shandong, a Type 055 large destroyer, two Type 052D destroyers, two Type 054A frigates and a Type 901 comprehensive replenishment ship as they sailed from the Western Pacific to the South China Sea via the Bashi Channel, according to a press release from Japan's Ministry of Defense Joint Staff published on its website in late April. [Two PLA-N conventional subs might also have been detected].

Referencing interactions with foreign warships and planes in the official release also showed that there were provocative moves during the drills and Shandong's practice has not been affected, but instead, included them in the training subject, elevating real combat skills, Song noted.

Experts quoted in the Reuters report contended that in a conflict, China's carriers would be vulnerable to missile and submarine attacks, noting that the People's Liberation Army Navy has not perfected protective screening operations, particularly anti-submarine warfare.

Responding that, Song said that admittedly, it would be a process for Chinese aircraft carriers to establish and hone their protective screening operations, and frequent drills in variety of sea areas prove that China was rapidly developing such capabilities.

Also, as the situations surrounding China continue to deteriorate, China has the need to strive to speed up the enhancement of its aircraft carrier fleets' combat capabilities within a decade or two which would take other countries decades or a century.

From the commissioning in December 2019, to the first far sea training in the Western Pacific in April, it took Shandong more than two years, the same process took the US many years, Song said.”