Indonesia's 6 Modern Submarines by 2026, 12? total by 2035 - Part 1

It was came as a surprise on Friday (April 12, 2019) that Indonesia with DSME had signed a contract for 3 additional submarines by 2026. 

[Please see the revised Indonesian Submarine Table (1959 – 2035) at
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/04/indonesia-submarine-build-table-revised.html for specifics and links.]

This is on top of the 3 submarines already received (2017, 2018 and KRI Alugoro 405 (launched April 11, 2019)).

All 6 submarines are known as Improved Chang Bogo, Type 209/1400s. All do/will rely on good German engineering via South Korean, DSME, efficiency.

The prospect of Indonesia owning 6 new submarines by 2026 while Australia's 6 Collins age will be making Australia's Navy quietly nervous.

Also, I have been reporting since February 20, 2014 (see that article here) that some Indonesian leaders and admirals are also interested in acquiring an additional 6 submarines, which may be South Korean DSME designed Type 214s (with formidable fuel cell AIP) - all adding up to 12.

If Indonesia has 12 fairly new submarines compared to 6 old Collins BEFORE Australia's first Attack-class sub is commissioned in 2035 - then this may represent a balance of power problem for Australia. 

See the revised Table of April 16, 2019 which takes you from Indonesia's first Whiskey/Tjakra-class (1959) submarine to the final Improved Chang Bogo (or Type 214 submarines) by 2035.

It is significant that experts have predicted Indonesia’s economy will be 3 times the size of Australia’s by 2030.

Pete

Russia's UET-1 electric propelled torpedo ordered by Russian Navy - Part Three

An expert on Russian submarines "Starshiy" has kindly provided extra information on the Russian  electric battery propelled torpedoes being ordered by the Russian Navy. Starshiy advises:

"The TE-2 [in SubMatts' April 2, 2019 article] has not been ordered by the Russian Navy."

Russia's TASS News Agency instead advised, September 8, 2018 https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/5539446 that the Russian Navy instead chose 73 x UET-1s electric torpedoes to be delivered from 2019 to 2023. These are produced by Russia's Tactical Missiles Corporation"

Starshiy has added extra information:

The UET-1 is a 533mm "universal" [multi-purpose] electric torpedo made by Russia's Tactical Missiles Corporation's Dagdizel factory.

UET-1s will replace the obsolete, slower, lower detection range USET-80 [in German] from 2019. The order for 73 x UET-1s costs 7.2 billion rubles (about €103 million). The UET-1 was selected against competition from the TE-2.

UET-1 Specifications:

-  Maximum range: 50km
-  Max speed: 50 knots
-  Range of the homing controller from submarine: 3.4km
-  Surface ship wake indication time: 500 seconds.
-  Torpedo can regulate its speed.

Russian officials (including Anatoly Galyaev in senior Colonel's uniform now in Armaments Branch?) admire UET-1 torpedo components at Russia's Tactical Missiles Corporation Dagdizel torpedo factory (Photo courtesy Russian Ministry of Defence Media Release
 https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12164690@egNews )

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Starshiy and Pete

Australia's new (or pre-existing?) SPAD (anti-submarine?) research.

Australia's Defence Science and Technology (DST) organisation has been developing a single-photon avalanche detector (SPAD) that may one day have anti-submarine applications. Below is a summary of the DST Media Release of April 10, 2019:

When suspended from a hovering drone just above the sea surface the aim is to dip the SPAD detector underwater. Working with a laser system SPAD may one day detect underwater objects (like mines, UUVs and submarines) by sensing low-light reflections.

[Pete Comment: There seems to be similarities with LIDAR].

SPAD is funding by the RAAF's Plan Jericho which, in part, is researching advanced sensors.

The SPAD system has been tested from a wharf at the Osborne shipyard in Adelaide, South Australia, then off a boat at sea near the Western Australian naval base, HMAS Stirling. 

"While the team successfully demonstrated underwater detection, Mau says there's still plenty of room for improvement, including optimising the optics and image processing."

The current SPAD chip is "a mere" 32×32 pixels of resolution and needs to be upgraded to 256×256 pixels to improve the sensor to practical effectiveness.

From dipping the SPAD sensor off a wharf and then off a boat at sea initial trials have been made with a custom-built, heavy-lift, unpiloted multicopter off the South Australian coast. 

FURTHER READING

A broader and I would say closely related principle is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-photon_avalanche_diode [which also carriers the acronym "SPAD"].

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Separately, but not connected to the DST research, below is an example (with Australian connections) of a Heavy Lift Unpiloted Multi-copter carryng delicate equipment.

Pete

Crashed Japanese F-35A. Not a Defection With Aircraft - However:

UPDATE: At 10.15am (April 10, 2019) Tokyo time - Japan's Air Force confirms the floating debris is from the F-35 fighter, with the pilot still missing. So it looks like a clear crash situation rather than a defection. The aircraft apparently crashed in waters that reach a depth of around 1,500 metres, making recovery difficult. Recovery of the "black (really orange) boxes" is slightly easier due to "pings". However see COMMENTS below.

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Earlier, at 7.30am (April 10, 2019) Tokyo time:

The Japanese Air Force announced https://www.mod.go.jp/asdf/news/houdou/H31/310409_2030.pdf

[The following has been translated from Japanese by Pete]:

"On the disappearance of the radar track of Misawa base station F-35A

(First report) Today, April 9 (Tuesday), the radar track of F-35A belonging to Misawa base disappeared. We are currently searching for it.

1 Date of occurrence: 19:27 April 9 (Tuesday)

2 Occurrence place: Aomori Prefecture Eastern Pacific Ocean (approximately 135 km east of Misawa Air Base)

3 unit name:   Third Air Corps 302th Squadron

4 models, number of machines, etc: F-35A x 1 machine (1 crew)

5 Situation of the pilot: Details are under review.

6 There is no information on damage at the moment.”

The Japanese Ministry of Defense [has suspended] flights of all remaining F-35As at the Misawa Air Base for the time being, Iwaya added.

The Japanese F-35 fighter jet missing in the Pacific could be a major security headache for the U.S. if Russia or China locate the state-of-the-art fighter jet first, experts warn.

Japan's (and US joint) Misawa Air Base is on the northern tip of Japan's home island of Honshu (see Misawa in red on map below)

COMMENTS - Not Defection, However:

It is puzzling that no emergency beacons or other emergency automatic signals were set off. No mayday by pilot voice. Even the radar of satellites and radars of the 3 nearby F-35A's did not detect the crashed F-35A as it entered the water.

The crash (especially if caused by a systemic software or hardware fault) serves as a warning not just to Japan as an F-35A owner but a warning to all countries who owns or will own F-35As (ie. the US, Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Israel etc). It is likely that all these F-35A (and even F-35B) owning countries (not only Japan) have quietly grounded their own aircraft for the time being.

China and Russia may be in a rush against the US and Japan to send their salvage ships and special mission submarines to the crash site to pick up even small pieces of the key stealth feature Radar Absorbent Material (RAM) coating that covers the F-35 airframe.

Even though not a defection with aircraft (this time) Japan is close enough, flying distance-wise, to anti-Western powers (China, Russia and North Korea) to make future Japanese F-35 defections possible. Although the pilot/body has not yet been found. Defection is less likely to be triggered by communist ideology these days and more likely by loneliness, revenge and a $multi-million bounty to deliver an F-35. 

As well as RAM coating the F-35's Pratt & Whitney F135 jet engine might be the most valuable item for China or Russia to reverse engineer and then incorporate into their own 5th generation fighter and bomber programs.   

Pete

Australia’s Attack-class submarine diesels likely MTU 12V4000U83s

In a Joint Department of Defence Ministers’ Media Release is was announced on 7 April 2019

at https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/cpyne/media-releases/attack-class-submarine-subcontract-signed

“Attack Class Submarine subcontract signed

7 April 2019

Joint Media Release

[The Hon Christopher Pyne MP
Minister for Defence and]

Senator the Hon Linda Reynolds CSC
Minister for Defence Industry

The first major equipment subcontract for the Future Submarine Program was signed today between Naval Group and MTU Friedrichshafen GmbH (MTU) for the design of the Diesel Generator Rectifier (DGR) for the Attack class submarine to turn mechanised energy into electricity.

Minister for Defence, the Hon Christopher Pyne MP said awarding this contract achieves a critical milestone in progress of the Program, with the design of the DGR a critical component of the overall Attack class design.

“I am very happy to announce that after a robust procurement process, MTU has been selected as the first major equipment subcontractor for the Attack class submarine,” Minister Pyne said.

“MTU has committed to establishing the necessary industrial capability in Australia, to deliver and support the DGR - a key element of achieving the sovereign build - operation and sustainment of the Attack class submarine,” Minister Pyne said.

Minister for Defence Industry, Senator the Hon Linda Reynolds CSC, said while the contract is directly with MTU, the company would leverage its existing strategic partnership with Penske Power Systems Australia.

“MTU will work with Penske during the design phase and will then grow Penske’s capacity in Australia. Importantly, this will transfer the technology and knowledge associated with this capability to Australia,” Minister Reynolds said.

“The DGR subcontract is part of the Government’s investment in the Attack class submarine, part of the creation of a sovereign naval shipbuilding enterprise and the Government’s continuous naval shipbuilding capability.””

COMMENT

MTU was one of the 2 German diesel makers predicted by Submarine Matters on March 5, 2019, at "German" Diesels to be on Australia’s future Attack class submarines” following Jean-Michel Billig of Naval Group announcing:

“Diesel generators [for Australia’s future Attack class submarine] will be German...”

So the diesel builder for Australia's future submarine is MTU diesels based in Friedrichshafen, Germany. The diesel type will most likely be the MTU 12V4000U83 (peak mechanical output may be 1,500kW) (photo below). "12V" means it is a V12. Less likely selected is an older diesel,
the MTU 16V396SE84, used since the 1980s.

The March 5, 2019 article correctly pointed to Penske Power Systems as the MTU supplier in Australia. Penske has a branch office in Edinburgh, Adelaide a few kms from where the Attack class submarines will be built (at Osborne, Adelaide).

Whether the diesels are MTU 4000s or 396s Anonymous on March 15, 2019 advised there will likely be 6 of them to comfortably generate the 6,000kW required for the 4,500 tonne (surfaced) future Attack-class submarine.

The choice by Australia and Naval Group of MTU diesels is a step in the right direction. The main problem of the preceding Collins class was probably the choice of a small, failing company diesel. In contrast MTU are used on many trucks, surface ships and for many other uses. In fact MTU diesels are probably the most frequently used diesels for diesel-electric submarines worldwide. Any bugs or adjustments required for the Attack-class' MTU diesels should be detected early and then be able to rely on MTU's very large industrial base for rectification. 

An MTU 12V4000U83 diesel for submarine (With "Roger Gleeson, National Manager - Defence Programmes Group" standing next to it - see Penske Australia and New Zealand website 2017).

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Pete and Anonymous

Japan’s F-15s Wearing Out - F-35s Unsuited to Peacetime Intercept Role

Japan is rapidly wearing out its F-15Js due to a high recent tempo of intercepts/escort outs of intruding Chinese and Russian aircraft. The 147 x F-35s Japan is buying are not as aerodynamically suited to peacetime intercept then escort out role. 

Glib statements theat F-35s can intercept aircraft with missiles, often beyond visual range are of no help to the delicate task of manoeuvring close to intruding aircraft in peacetime and of course being seen by the intruder to do so. The F-35 does not fill the F-15's peacetime intercept role well.

Basically and in addition to the 147 x F-35s Japan needs faster more manoeuvrable twin jet aircraft to take over the existing F-15J role. Japan has very limited replacement options, as:
-  the US does not trust its allies to have F-22s. 
-  Japan cannot develop a duplicate of the F-22 (eg. the X-2 Shinshin) in under 2 or 3 decades and at
   huge cost 
-  the Eurofighter Typhoon looks tempting noting its Rate of climb: 62,600 ft/min is better than 
   the F-15's and Typhoon Thrust/weight is 1.15 
-  but alliance pressures with associated and trade/foreign exchange pressures may mean another
   purchase of available US aircraft is the only politically realistic course.

So,  in addition to the 147 x F-35s Japan may need to buy (say 50?) US aircraft. Maybe:

-  Super Hornets. BUT its Rate of climb of 44,882 ft/min is only marginally better
   than the F-35's 45,000 ft/min and the Super Hornet's Thrust/weight: 0.93 at 1.1 is not much better
   than the F-35s Thrust/weight of 0.87 to 1.07. Also Japan is not familiar with the Super Hornet and
   does not have logistic infrastructure for it.

OR

-  New F-15s. These are better suited for the peacetime intercept niche/role noting Japan's
   F-15J's Rate of climb is >50,000 ft/min and Thrust/weight: 1.12. F-15s can climb and move faster,
   manoeuvre and slow down more quickly to escort intruders out more quickly.

So obtaining near new F-15s (which may mean new parts to assemble in Japan) and could mean the F-15SE "Silent Eagle". 

Alternatively cheaper/less advanced F-15s or even return to Typhoons as options?

Pete