Japan is rapidly wearing out its F-15Js due to a high recent tempo of intercepts/escort outs of intruding Chinese and Russian aircraft. The 147 x F-35s Japan is buying are not as aerodynamically suited to peacetime intercept then escort out role.
Glib statements theat F-35s can intercept aircraft with missiles, often beyond visual range are of no help to the delicate task of manoeuvring close to intruding aircraft in peacetime and of course being seen by the intruder to do so. The F-35 does not fill the F-15's peacetime intercept role well.
Basically and in addition to the 147 x F-35s Japan needs faster more manoeuvrable twin jet aircraft to take over the existing F-15J role. Japan has very limited replacement options, as:
- the US does not trust its allies to have F-22s.
- Japan cannot develop a duplicate of the F-22 (eg. the X-2 Shinshin) in under 2 or 3 decades and at
huge cost
- the Eurofighter Typhoon looks tempting noting its Rate of climb: 62,600 ft/min is better than
the F-15's and Typhoon Thrust/weight is 1.15
- but alliance pressures with associated and trade/foreign exchange pressures may mean another
purchase of available US aircraft is the only politically realistic course.
So, in addition to the 147 x F-35s Japan may need to buy (say 50?) US aircraft. Maybe:
- Super Hornets. BUT its Rate of climb of 44,882 ft/min is only marginally better
than the F-35's 45,000 ft/min and the Super Hornet's Thrust/weight: 0.93 at 1.1 is not much better
than the F-35s Thrust/weight of 0.87 to 1.07. Also Japan is not familiar with the Super Hornet and
does not have logistic infrastructure for it.
OR
- New F-15s. These are better suited for the peacetime intercept niche/role noting Japan's
F-15J's Rate of climb is >50,000 ft/min and Thrust/weight: 1.12. F-15s can climb and move faster,
manoeuvre and slow down more quickly to escort intruders out more quickly.
So obtaining near new F-15s (which may mean new parts to assemble in Japan) and could mean the F-15SE "Silent Eagle".
Alternatively cheaper/less advanced F-15s or even return to Typhoons as options?
Pete
Glib statements theat F-35s can intercept aircraft with missiles, often beyond visual range are of no help to the delicate task of manoeuvring close to intruding aircraft in peacetime and of course being seen by the intruder to do so. The F-35 does not fill the F-15's peacetime intercept role well.
Basically and in addition to the 147 x F-35s Japan needs faster more manoeuvrable twin jet aircraft to take over the existing F-15J role. Japan has very limited replacement options, as:
- the US does not trust its allies to have F-22s.
- Japan cannot develop a duplicate of the F-22 (eg. the X-2 Shinshin) in under 2 or 3 decades and at
huge cost
- the Eurofighter Typhoon looks tempting noting its Rate of climb: 62,600 ft/min is better than
the F-15's and Typhoon Thrust/weight is 1.15
- but alliance pressures with associated and trade/foreign exchange pressures may mean another
purchase of available US aircraft is the only politically realistic course.
So, in addition to the 147 x F-35s Japan may need to buy (say 50?) US aircraft. Maybe:
- Super Hornets. BUT its Rate of climb of 44,882 ft/min is only marginally better
than the F-35's 45,000 ft/min and the Super Hornet's Thrust/weight: 0.93 at 1.1 is not much better
than the F-35s Thrust/weight of 0.87 to 1.07. Also Japan is not familiar with the Super Hornet and
does not have logistic infrastructure for it.
OR
- New F-15s. These are better suited for the peacetime intercept niche/role noting Japan's
F-15J's Rate of climb is >50,000 ft/min and Thrust/weight: 1.12. F-15s can climb and move faster,
manoeuvre and slow down more quickly to escort intruders out more quickly.
So obtaining near new F-15s (which may mean new parts to assemble in Japan) and could mean the F-15SE "Silent Eagle".
Alternatively cheaper/less advanced F-15s or even return to Typhoons as options?
Pete
14 comments:
If dedicated interceptors are needed, the F-15 would be the likely choice. The Japanese are familiar with the type and the US is itself buying a new batch. Typhoon is a good option capability wise (in particular it would add a super cruise ability and Meteor) but as you point out, politics would probably drive an American purchase. Another option might be new license built F-15 - it shouldn't be difficult for the Japanese to build the latest type of aircraft and the US likely would not object, giving their local industry a boost. The F-18E/F makes no sense - it lacks the range of F-15,Typhoon, or even F-35 and would introduce a brand new parts and training stream to the JASDF.
Cheers,
Josh
Hello, just thought I'd mention that my understanding is that the Silent Eagle (an F-15 with a reduced radar cross section to 1-.1 m2) is likely no longer on offer. It likely had significant development costs for too little benefit in terms of stealth. The new multi-role F-15X under order from U.S. would likely be considered, though I'm not sure Japan is keen on ordering more F-15s (I will have to look further into this.)
Pete
This is a similar problem for Canada. They also have to escort off the occasional Russian plane over the arctic. To my mind it’s never a good idea to give a pilot of a military aircraft a fright by popping up out of nowhere. You also don’t want them practicing against your stealth aircraft to fine tune their sensors. If they can see you coming, then they can turn away or stay strictly within international airspace etc. Far less likely that a real situation will occur or that the plane comes much further into your airspace than intended, on the belief you don’ know they are there because they can’t detect you. No different to a marked police car or police officer in uniform.
Regards
a combination of newer strike eagles and the regular F-15Js seem like a decent plan.
But in the longer run, some sort of arrangement with China will need to be arrived at as China can throw a lot of carrier launched J-15s and also shore based J-11s, J-10s etc. which are getting better weapons and avionics suites with each round of upgrades.
Last count the J1x series (J-10, J-11,J-15, J-16) and Su-35 alone were north of 1,100 (combined PLANAF, PLAAF) and rapidly climbing as China adds highly capable aircraft to it's inventory. This is does not account for the 50 odd J-20s already flying as well.
There is still time to switch part of the F35 order into F15x just as USAF is doing so. It is also cheaper to operate F15x than F35. As to those peacetime intercept role, I would say think forward deployed drones like that Kratos X-58. You also want to wear down all those Sukhoi clones. The SU-27/30 variants and I bet the same goes for the J-11/15/16 have abysmal fuselage and engine life cycles.
KQN
Thanks Josh, Sebastien, Anonymous, GhalibKabir and KQN
There seems to be most support for replacement F-15s with characteristics like the F-15Js.
There being less need for the cost and stealth of F-15 Silent Eagles. Another reason is that the intruders need to be able to spot the F-15s on their radars early on rather than be surprised and perform unfortunate actions by a stealthy F-15 that could sneak up on them.
The US is likely to accept the replacements being assembled in Japan like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_F-15J. That provides continued cashflow for Mitsubishi. US acceptance of build in Japan would also be expected given Japan's F-35s have been bought at such high cost only heightened by most of Japan's F-35s being assembled in the US.
If remote piloted aircraft (RPA) performed interceptions they would probably need to be armed - an inherent requirement for intercepting intruders even in peacetime. The intruder aircraft might also be in a good close proximity position to jam and even electronically highjack intercepting RPAs.
The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kratos_XQ-58_Valkyrie with Maximum speed: Mach 0.85 are too slow for the job. So other "can loiter for hours but can also move quickly" technical solutions would be necessary.
On whether Japan and China can come to some agreement to minimise interception events? Its complex:
- Chinese has the power/budget to outlast Japan
- Taiwan also covets the East China Sea islands/territorial waters, and
- Russia is also intruding.
So many intangibles!
Regards
Pete
Pete @9/4/19 5:13 PM
The Chinese with their huge historical axe grinding (partly fair but gets overlapped by China's blatant use of them as politico-military sledgehammers) are likely to be way more persistent at creating trouble. There are three angles imho
1. Political: China's historical grievance and a near fanatic view of territorial irredentism (Tibet, Taiwan, Senkaku, parts of NE India, Kashmir etc.)
2. Economic: Control of Gas reserves in South China Sea plus increasingly aggressive posture on SLOCs starting from Red Sea, Persian Gulf via Malacca/Sunda Straits to China
3. Military: Neutering (I advisedly say so) SK and JP and controlling the third island chain all the way to Saipan and halfway till Hawaii plus the fourth and fifth chains starting from the eastern sea board of Africa through Pakistan and Sri Lanka
https://amti.csis.org/chinas-reach-grown-island-chains/
They are very systematically building up their position like a master 'Go' board player.
PS:The Russians I think are a secondary issue imho, Taiwan is max probably a few decades from being forcibly integrated into the PRC.
PPS: What Japan frankly needs is SLCMs, SLBMs (a solid sea based hydrogen bomb deterrent)
Pete
If You want to do it on the cheap, than the new SAAB fighter will do the job. You don’t need an expensive twin engine fighter like F15 or Typhoon to see off such aircraft. The SAAB is Mach 2 capable & missiles such as the new meteor are already integrated, has modern radar & more range than the A/B/C/D models. It’s also STOL capable so can easily be based in forward or isolated bases with limited facilities.
Regards
To all read this article;
https://www.military.com/defensetech/2012/09/26/air-force-seeks-afterlife-for-f-15s
It does not help that Japan already lost the first F35A it assembled.
KQN
Tri-ring has put forward an article. https://www.military.com/defensetech/2012/09/26/air-force-seeks-afterlife-for-f-15s that may present an option of extending the existing F-15Js to 18,000 hours,
ie: 10,000 hours more than the planned 8,000 hours.
All this involves modernisation eg. airframe fatigue tests, [subsequent airframe strengthening?] and replacement of much/most? electronics.
Comment: Its unknown if some/most modernisation has to be done in the US. Buying new F-15s might still be preferred by the Japanese Government and Mitsubishi (the assembler of new F-15s).
Hi KQN at 10/4/19 6:33 AM
Yes Japan has lost its first F-35A.
See today's new SubMatt article https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/04/has-japanese-pilot-defected-with-his-f.html which also floats the possibility that the Japanese pilot defected with his F-35.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at 9/4/19 9:41 PM] on any Japanese decision to buy Saab fighters
From looking at Japanese and Australian buying habits such buying is increasingly to cement alliances/protection.
So if all aircraft had equal characteristics a Western country might buy US aircraft first (F-35 anyone?) then British or French.
Then as Sweden has chosen a policy of non-aligned, non-NATO, neutrality, its aircraft (or even submarines) may be chosen last...
Regards
Pete
Sebastien Roblin at The National Interest has written a highly relevant April 13, 2019 article: "Meet the Mitsubishi F-3: Japan's 6th Generation Fighter Jet" at https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-mitsubishi-f-3-japans-6th-generation-fighter-jet-52277
including "Japan’s 2019 Mid-Term Defense review quietly revealed that after years of hesitation, Tokyo has decided to press ahead with development of its own domestically designed sixth-generation Mitsubishi F-3 air-superiority stealth fighter, rather than purchasing an additional foreign stealth design to supplement its growing fleet of F-35s.
...However, the F-35 is designed foremost as an air-to-air capable strike plane rather than air superiority fighter in the vein of the F-22 Raptor, which is no longer in production.
While the JASDF is building up its surface strike capability, defensive air patrols are by far its primary mission. In 2018, the JASDF dispatched fighters to intercept approaching Russian and Chinese military aircraft on average nearly three times per day.
The PLA Air Force outnumbers Japan’s six-to-one, and its latest fighters like the J-11D and J-20 come close to matching Japan’s historical qualitative advantage.
...Characteristics desirable in air defense fighter are long range/endurance for lengthy patrols; high speed to swiftly engage incoming aircraft before they release their weapons; and maneuverability to defeat opposing fighters in within-visual-range dogfights.
In all of these old-school characteristics, Japan’s forty-year-old F-15J Eagle fighters out-perform the F-35..." and much more.
See Sebastien's whole article here https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-mitsubishi-f-3-japans-6th-generation-fighter-jet-52277
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