May 16, 2017

Ransomeware Possible Threat to SSBNs' Microsoft "Windows for Submarines"

At work at the NSA where cyber-defensive software is assessed and developed and also malware. 
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Combining the current international ransomware scare and nuclear missile submarines (SSBNs) is the following:

GLOBAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Graham Vanbergen for Canada based Global Research, May 14, 2017 reports in part:

“British Nuclear Submarines, Microsoft and That Ransomware Attack”

[The BBC has reported that the recent ransomware attack hit 100 countries. Cyber-security firm Avast said it had seen 75,000 cases of the ransomware worm – known as ‘WannaCry’ and variants of that name – around the world. The ransomware worm parasitically spreads by itself between computers with alarming speed and effectiveness. So fast, that this cyber-attack had the potential to hit critical infrastructure that supports human life and disable it.] “Microsoft was[and is] the only fully vulnerable operating system...”

"“Who are culprits? The BBC blame hackers known as ‘The Shadow Brokers’, who made it freely available in April, saying it was a “protest” about US President Donald Trump... The NSA in America lost all of these hacking tools, specifically the one that caused this attack and subsequent mayhem across the world. The hackers exploited a piece of NSA code known as “Eternal Blue.”... This extraordinary collection, which amounts to more than several hundred million lines of code, gives its possessor the entire hacking capacity of the CIA. The archive appears to have been circulated among former U.S. government hackers and contractors in an unauthorized manner, one of whom has provided WikiLeaks with portions of the archive.”
From a 2008 article by The Register reported:
“[Britain’s Vanguard class SSBNs use Microsoft’s Windows for Submarines] The programme is called Submarine Command System Next Generation (SMCS NG), and uses varying numbers of standard multifunction consoles with two LCD screens, hooked up on an internal Ethernet network installed on each sub. Initial reports as the programme developed suggested that the OS in question would be Windows 2000, but those who have worked on it have since informed the Reg that in fact it is mostly based on XP.”

Windows were so chuffed at “Windows for Submarines” they even advertised the fact to the entire world (HERE)

“Windows for Submarines is the programme undertaken by the Royal Navy and BAE Systems to equip the nuclear-propelled and nuclear-armed warship fleet with a Windows-based command system.  The transition to the Windows for Submarines command system on HMS Vigilant, a Trident nuclear missile submarine, was completed in just 18 days.”

PETE’S COMMENT
The possible ransomware threat to the SSBNs' Microsoft software depends on many factors, including:

-  how similar the software is to software already effected by the ransomware
-  how difficult it is for an infiltrator to access any thumdrive ports or other points of access to the 
    SSBNs' computer hardware and software.

The ransomware used in this current crisis may have been adapted by well organised hacker networks from the almost decade old Stuxnet worm:
Stuxnet functions by targeting machines using the Microsoft Windows operating system and networks...
Stuxnet became most famous in 2010 for causing thousands of centrifuges (used for boosting levels of  bomb-grade Uranium-235) to spin erratically and destructively at Natanz and other Iranian sites.
The three country organisations that may have Stuxnet were the US NSA and Israel’s Unit 8200 with Middle Eastern and Iranian targets in mind. 
All developed countries have their NSA equivalents, including Russia (FSB-IT but mainly GRU-IT) and China (including PLA Unit 61398 within the broader PLA Third Department). 
Pete

May 7, 2017

May 2017 Donors Report - The Union and Australian Submarine Projects

HMAS Collins launch in August 1993. In terms of industrial relations the construction was a success.
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Hi Donors

I've just emailed Submarine Matters May 2017 Report The Union and Australian Submarine Projects out to you, as a WORD attachment. Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

Leadin to report:

"Submarine construction is a vast human enterprise with many aspects. One aspect is labour, the contribution of workers, who build the submarines. Australia has shipbuilding unions, including the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union (AMWU), that played a key role in the Collins’ submarine construction project. From the early 1980s Australian shipbuilding unions exhibited a high level of cooperation with the Australian government on the project. Things...[an important person referred to in the article should have been correctly spelt Hans J Ohff, not the typo I perpetuated of Hans J "Ohfe".]"

Regards

Peter Coates
Director
Submarine Matters International 

May 5, 2017

Thai Army versus Navy Controversy over the Chinese Submarine Purchase

Thailand’s ruling military junta has been talking about the pending Chinese built submarine purchase for just under two years. However the latest media coverage appears to have been whipped up by the Thai Army in part to remind the Thai Navy of the Army's dominance in the junta-government.

The Thai Army see themselves as the elite saviours of Thailand when civilian governments fail to govern effectively – which the Army sees as occurring often - gauged by the number of Army coups in Thailand. The Washington Post reports that  Thailand has had 11 + (1 in 2014) = 12 successful coups and 7 attempted coups since 1932.

Thailand’s most influential English language newspaper, the Bangkok Post, reports Army General (“retired”) Prayut, who is also the Prime Minister, expressed disapproval of the Navy's openness. He accused the Navy of divulging too many details of the Thai Government's submarine decision-making in the Navy’s early May 2017 press briefing on the 3 Chinese S26T submarines for Thailand project.

According to the prime minister, no other country has ever had to disclose this much information about military hardware procurement as Thailand just did.” This is hardly correct. The US government releases 1000s of pages of detailed costs and technical details for acquisition and building its much more sensitive nuclear submarines (SSNs, SSGNs and SSBNs).

The Army rulers of Thailand may also wish to distance themselves from the public criticism and accusations of corruption the Navy is receiving over the pending submarine purchase.

The Thai Navy may see submarines as high priced assets (costing US$ 1 Billion total) that signify the Navy’s importance. The subs could one day be seen as replacing the basically unused Thai carrier HTMS Chakri Naruebet as symbols of prestige.

Thailand is criticized for its coups and now for choosing Chinese submarines. But who can legitimately judge Thailand? The US has been critical of the latest Thai coup (of 2014) and the US has frozen just under US$5 million aid money to Thailand. With an unscrupulous property developer for a President the US can hardly claim moral exceptionalism or superiority over any country the US criticizes.
  
China’s mass productions of submarines and part Chinese government funded price reductions allows China to produce submarine cheap enough for non-wealthy governments, like Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand to buy. But it is in Chinese political influence over these countries and extra downstream costs (like spares, maintenance and overhaul) that reaps benefits for China.

Anonymous has located interesting comments in http://www.bbc.com/thai/thailand-39754830 that:

"The “submarines from China are inferior to submarines competing in almost every dimension."

-    The size of Taiwan's Yuan class variant S26T hull will be too big. It is designed for a minimum of depth of 60 meters, while the average depth of the Gulf of Thailand is 25 to 40 meters.

-     the “speed and operating distance of the Chinese submarines is 18 knots maximum for only 10 minutes and operating distance of only 8,000 miles. While other subs of other nations have maximum speeds greater than 20 knots for approximately one hour and operating distances of more than 10,000 miles.

-    Chinese submarine operational lives are only 25 years - less than the 40 years lives of subs from other nations.

-    Along with Chinese submarines being lower priced than competitors comes questions whether the quality of Chinese subs is also low.

In terms of possible usefulness of Thailand's future submarines, according to the esteemed South Pacific island publication, coconuts.co:

“Thailand is not involved in disputes with China and other Southeast Asian countries over the South China Sea but it does have a dispute with Cambodia over their maritime border in a gas-rich part of the Gulf of Thailand." Thailand also has maritime borders in the Indian Ocean - an Ocean with more usefully deeper waters than the too shallow waters of the Gulf of Thailand.



Above and below are images of the Thai S26T submarine - future variant of the Yuan class.


By Pete and Anonymous

May 4, 2017

SubMatt's Prediction of 4 x P-8s for New Zealand's MPA Buy Seems on Money

In “Japan selling its P-1 and C-2 military aircraft to NZ at low prices?” of January 10, 2017 I wrote that:

think New Zealand (NZ) plays it safe and traditional in its military hardware buying patterns. This will work against Japan's: P-1 MPAs. Instead, I think NZ buying 
4 x P-8 Poseidon MPAs is more likely.” 

The prediction of 4 x P-8s seems to be working out.

I don’t know if the US Government ordinarily publishes documents like this on the US Government’s decision to clear the possible sale to New Zealand of 4 x P-8 Poseidon MPAs.

New Zealand has not yet decided which MPA it will buy in coming years given there are competing offers of the Airbus DS C295 and Japanese Kawasaki P-1.

New Zealand sees the P-8 as expensive and seems to want to bargain down the price. One way to do this is for NZ to buy the P-8s with a bargain from the same company (Boeing) on long range transport/VIP aircraft. The Royal NZ Air Force (RNZAF) is currently using 2 x Boeing 757s due for replacement in 2020. 

As commented on 12/1/17 2:25 PM [in a discussion of NZ Hercules replacement that may also apply to 757 replacement] "There may be an essential requirement for NZ's Transport aircraft to have the safe range to fly from Christchurch (NZ) to NZ's Scott (Antarctic) Base https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Base and Back unrefueled....So a range of at least 8,000 km and probably 9,000 km or more (headwinds, circling times, need to fly to alternate airports/ice landing zones) might be necessary."

So a NZ purchase from Boeing–US may be in a package of:

-  4 x P-8s (for delivery in 2026) with at least 

-  2 Boeing built, at least 757 sized jets, with safe Antarctica and back extended range (for delivery 
   earlier in 2021).


The Australian Air Force has bought P-8s (note the little Kangaroo decal on the P-8) increasing the likelyhood ally and neighbour New Zealand will do likewise (with a Kiwi decal). (Photo courtesy Boeing via Australian Aviation magazine).
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One of RNZAF's two transport/VIP 757s on ice in Antarctica - in need of replacing around 2020. (Photo courtesy NZ military).
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Pete

April 26, 2017

Figure 5 Relationship between output of DE and IR for a LIB-submarine on patrol.

Anonymous has kindly provided the following figure and description. This is in the context of Anonymous's previous article Submarine electricity discharge & generation using combinations of Diesels, LIBs, LABs & AIP of April 20, 2017.

Figure 5 Relationship between output of a Diesel generator (DE) and Indiscretion Ratio (IR) during a LIB submarine’s patrol.
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The Vertical axis (above) is output of the is in kW.

The Horizontal axis is Indiscretion Ratio (IR) expressed as:

time for snorting /time for snorking + time for operating AIP or batteries) x 100

Power required (PT) is: Propulsion Load (PL= 60kW) and Hotel Load (HL)

Blue, PT=250kW (HL=190kW) based on current submarine; red, PT=300kW(HL=240kW); green, PT=350kW (HL=290kW); violet, PL=400kW(HL=350kW). IR=indiscretion ratio.

With the combat system requiring large amounts of electricity, Lead-acid Batteries (LABs) frequently cannot satisfy the electrical requirement because of its poor capacity. As a result, the capability of  the sonar system of a LAB submarine is inferior to that of an SSN.

In contrast, Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) can meet the high electical requirements. Utilising higher kW DEs, LIBs can supply more electricity for the HL, remembering that the PL also requires large amounts of electricity in a large conventional submarine.

If the output of DE is 6000kW within the framework of snorting ability, there is an excellent Indiscretion Ration of 6.25% where expected PL  is 400kW and HL is 350kW..

A well-developed LIB-submarine has the following advantages:
i)        a reduction in indiscretion ratio,
ii)      improvement of high speed performance, and
iii)    enhancement of sensors and processing systems.

Anonymous

April 25, 2017

Submarine Matter's expectation of an Ohio class SSGN now confirmed

On April 13, 2017 Submarine Matters published an article, US & Japanese ABM - BMD forces slowly approaching North Korea, which stated:


"Submarine-wise one SSN or two (with Tomahawk land attack missiles) would normally accompany the Carl Vinson Group. To enhance the option of a first or second strike of Tomahawk SLCMs onto NK targets a US Ohio SSGN might also be on hand in the region. Submarine fired Tomahawks all have the advantage of a greater element of surprise because they can emerge from unexpected undersea launch points."
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This suspicion was confirmed 11 days later on April 24-25, 2017 when Fox News reported

"The USS Michigan, a nuclear powered Ohio class submarine will pull into the South Korean port of Busan for a hull check in the coming hours, military sources confirmed Monday to Fox News...The USS Michigan is one of four Ohio-class guided-missile submarines, originally designed to launch nuclear missiles, that were converted between 2003 and 2007 to be able to fire Tomahawk cruise missiles....The USS Florida (SSGN 728) was converted in August 2003, the USS Michigan (SSGN 727) in October 2004, the USS Ohio (SSGN 726) in December 2005, and the USS Georgia (SSGN 729) in December 2007."


A US Ohio class SSGN is very large (around 17,000 tons (surfaced) and 19,000 tons (submerged)). Its size can be judged from how small the crew look standing on the hull.
Can astute readers spot the (non-Asia Pacific) location?
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Pete