Likely Israeli "Spy" killed in Christchurch, New Zealand, Feb 2011 Earthquake.

First Published July 20, 2011

Map marking the location of the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake, New Zealand.

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Photo from Israel's YNet news of Mossad case officer Ofer Mizrahi before his last  fatal mission, when he was crushed by the Christchurch earthquake 2011.
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The remains of Ofer's crushed van after the most devastating, Christchurch Earthquake (via YNet news).
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My comments are in [ ] brackets and at end. msnbc.com (Asia Pacific) June 20, 2011 reports:

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — One of the victims of the February [2011] earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand may have been an Israeli spy [intelligence officer who had the job of collecting NZ passports for later use by Mossad, Shin-Bet or Israeli military intelligence] according to a report in The Southland Times.

The man, Ofer Benyamin Mizrahi, 24, was carrying five [NZ] passports with him at the time of his death, according to the Times. The newspaper's reports centered around a possible breach of New Zealand's national police computers. The Times said police and [New Zealand's Security Intelligence Service] SIS. were investigating.

New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key, who was in Los Angeles Tuesday, declined to comment on the report other than to say "there had been no misuse of the police computer system or New Zealand passports by Israeli citizens," The Southland Times reported.

Mizrahi was one of three Israelis who died in the Feb. 22, 2011. earthquake, according to the Israeli media outlet Haaretz. Around 120 Israelis were living in the area around Christchurch at the time of the 6.3 magnitude quake, which destroyed most of the central business district in the southern city of Christchurch.

Misrahi and three other people were in a van that was crushed by a falling pillar. Misrahi was killed, but the others were able to extricate themselves, the The Southland Times said.

Mizrahi's three companions, one man and two women, photographed the crushed van and rendezvoused at a city square that Israeli officials had designated an "emergency meeting point," then were able to travel back to Israel within 12 hours, The Southland Times said.

[further proof that the passport gathering activity was an extensive and expensive Israeli operation comes from this: ] New Zealand authorities later confronted an "unaccredited Israeli search and rescue squad" and [armed New Zealand special weapons squad guards disarmed the Israeli "squad"] from the sealed-off area in the city, the Times said. This Israeli squad was one of two private search parties brought from Israel to New Zealand, without prior coordination with local authorities in New Zealand, [Israel's] Haaretz reported.

Israel's ambassador to the South Pacific region, Shemi Tzur [putting on a bold face] said the spy reports were "science fiction," The Southland Times said. New Zealand police say they are confident their computer system is secure.

COMMENT

Israel obtains and uses "real" passports from popular, obscure accent, neutral countries, like New Zealand, for Israel's worldwide intelligence operations.

Invaluable Wikipedia reports that Israeli agents visiting NZ were earlier caught red-handed in 2004 attempting to acquire NZ passports:

"In July 2004, New Zealand imposed diplomatic sanctions on Israel over an incident in which two Australian based Israelis, Uriel Kelman and Eli Cara , who were allegedly working for Mossad, attempted to fraudulently obtain New Zealand passports by claiming the identity of a severely disabled man. Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom later apologized to New Zealand for their actions.

New Zealand cancelled several other passports believed to have been obtained by Israeli agents. Both Kelman and Cara served half of their six-month sentences and, upon release, were deported to Israel see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mossad#New_Zealand.

Here is Israel's national anthem, Hatikva or "Hope" not because Ofer was Israeli but in memory of him as a fellow intelligence officer dying on the job.

U.S. eyes return to some Southeast Asia military bases

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-seeks-return-to-se-asian-bases/2012/06/22/gJQAKP83vV_story.html?wprss=rss_national-security

In next-door Vietnam, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta this month became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the naval and air base at Cam Ranh Bay since the end of the war

US Reports that Agni IIs are NOT fully operational.

An Agni II on parade. "fewer than 10" deployed says an authoritative US report.

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FAS Strategic Security Blog has analysed an update of the US Air Force Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat. The FAS analysis of June 9, 2009, states in part:

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"The latest update continues the previous user-friendly format and describes a number of important assessments and new developments in ballistic and cruise missiles of many of the world’s major military powers. The report also helps dispel many web-rumors that have circulated about Chinese, Russian, Indian and Pakistani nuclear forces...

Chinese Nuclear Forces

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As the DF-3A retirement continues (there are now only 5-10 launchers left of close to 100 in the 1980s), the liquid-fuel missile is being replaced by a family of solid-fuel DF-21 variants. The NASIC identifies four, including two nuclear versions (Mod 1 and Mod 2), one conventional version, and an anti-ship version that unlike the others is not yet deployed.

 

Thankfully, the report dispels widespread speculation by web sites, news media, and even Jane’s after images began circulating on the Internet, that a DF-25 had been deployed, some even said with three nuclear warheads. But it was, as I

predicted last year and NASIC now confirms, in fact a DF-21....

The NASIC report states that neither of China’s two types submarine-launched ballistic missiles is operational. This suggests that the multi-year overhaul of the JL-1 equipped Xia SSBN, which was completed last year, was not successful. The successor missile JL-2 for the new Jin-class SSBNs has not reached operational status either...

NASIC lists single warheads on all of the Chinese missiles, not multiple warheads as speculated by many. “China could develop MIRV payloads for some of its ICBMs,” the report states. Yet it also predicts that, “Future ICBMs probably will include some with multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles.” Whether that prediction – which appears to hint that China has more ICBMs under development – comes true remains to be seen, and the U.S. intelligence community has stated for years that one development that could trigger it is a U.S. ballistic missile defense system....

Russian Nuclear Forces

NASIC states that “Russia retains about 2,000 warheads on ICBMs,” which is far too many for the land-based ICBM force and so probably includes SLBMs as well. The ICBM force will continue to decrease due to arms control agreements, aging missiles, and resource constraints. Even so, “Russia will probably retain the largest ICBM force outside the United States,” and “most of these missiles are maintained on alert, capable of being launched within minutes of receiving a launch order,” according to NASIC...Indian Nuclear Forces
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Even though Indian news media reports and private/corporate institutes have reported for years that Agni I and Agni II were deployed, the NASIC report shows that operational deployment of the road-mobile Agni I SRBM has only recently begun, with “fewer than 25” missile launchers deployed. NASIC seems to back our assessment from last year that the Agni II at that time was not yet fully operational, by listing “fewer than 10” launchers deployed.

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Two short-range sea-based ballistic missiles are under development: Dhanush and Sagarika. Neither is operational yet, and NASIC safely estimates that the Sagarika will become operational sometime after 2010.

Despite Indian news media reports of development of a nuclear-capable cruise missile, no mentioning of such a weapon system is made by NASIC.

Pakistani Nuclear Forces

There are fewer than 50 launchers for the road-mobile Ghaznavi and Shaheen I SRBMs listed in the NASIC report, and the 2,000+ km Shaheen II MRBM is not yet operational but may be soon. Pakistan also appears to have two nuclear-capable cruise missiles under development: the ground-launched Babur and the air-launched Ra’ad."

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Comments

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The US information is at variance to announcements in India years ago, recorded in Bharat-Rakshak which states:

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"In May 2001, and again in July 2001, the then-incumbent Defence Minister Jaswant Singh informed the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) that the Agni-II missile is operational, limited production had begun and induction being planned during 2001-2002. On 14 March 2002, Defence Minister George Fernandes informed Indian Parliament that the Agni-II has entered the production phase and is under induction. Agni-II is made by BDL in Hyderabad, with a production capacity of 18 missiles/year and costs about Rs.35 crore[39] for each missile."
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With the US estimates and semi-official? projection by Bharat-Rakshak one can only conclude that India:
- wishes to publicly display its Agni Is and IIs even if they are not fully operational
- national pride and justifying defence expenditure are important
- scaring opponents (Pakistan and China) is important
- maintaining a level of secrecy and uncertainty assists the scaring (deterrent) effect
- providing no clear number of Agni Is and IIs assists the survivability of at least some of these land mobile missiles - as opponents can never be sure how many to destroy.
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So who is correct? Or what is a better estimate of the number of operational Agni IIs?

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Pete

Russia and India's PAK FA - Export Possibilities

Su 35 in foreground - a PAK FA (T-50) behind it.

Back in 2012: Interesting photos and comments particularly about South Korean interest in the PAK FA and the broader prospect of the PAK FA competing with the F-35 (JSF) for export orders.

http://defensetech.org/2011/08/15/fighter-porn-russias-pak-fa-stealth-jet/

Since 2012

Overall Vladi the Poisoner Putin has blown too much money on power projection in Syria and Putin's Nuclear Wonder Weapons (Doomsday Torpedoes?) for Russia to also afford to develop 5G airecraft like the PAK-FA.

India, for its part, has played less of a part in throwing money at the PAK-FA Project given Putin cannot throw his weight around everywhere in Russia's over-extended military-industrial complex. 

Also Putin, noting pensions are harder to get, is increasingly concerned with his Palacial legacies.

Pete

Different F-35 Stealth Features to Different Countries. Why? and Indian MMRCA?

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The F-35 - a serious new entrant in India's MMRCA competition?

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This article http://defensetech.org/2011/06/23/how-stealthy-is-your-f-35/ appears to be an attempted "expose" of the unsurprising possibility of differing F-35 stealth suites for each customer country). The article talks of "the source on the Australian internet is but I don’t think he’s inside the program office". Anyone who can visualize technology transfer policy or who writes about F-35's frequently could be part of the "source" - not me of course.
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Probably most advanced US jets would have (or have had) some differences in their export models based on such issues as the recipient country's: . - security record or agreed status.  Australia and perhaps only the UK and Canada have the closest security-technology treaties with the US - (probably) particularly on protection of stealth features and source codes. So Australia, Canada and the UK are well placed to get the best stealth suites outside of the US. I'm certain that the US would have numerous (less close) agreements or understandings with other counties (eg. Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands etc). However for a variety of reasons these agreements and understandings might be kept confidential. - degree of loyalty to the US alliance including participation in US military operations (eg. being in Afghanistan) - how important a country is to the US (eg. Canada is important due to NORAD (sharing the North American continent). Israel is always boosted on this measure as well as acquiring US weapons for lower prices or gratis)  - how much each country is paying (eg. Saudi Arabia) , - stealth needs of the country (what stealth suite has the customer country asked for?) - commonality of F-35 software and hardware with a country's existing wares. - the US Government and the main supplier (Lockheed Martin) may also have legitimate marketing strategies expressed as differences in F-35 stealth features between countries. - one wonders what the chances are of Lockheed offering the F-35 to India for India's MMRCA tender? - another factor in the degree of F-35 stealth might be how early and fully a country invests its taxpayers money towards US national risk and Lockheed corporate risk in developing the F-35. As an early investor Australia has probably already poured around $300+ million into the F-35 project. The Australian Government routinely sheds the odd $100 million to a $billion in defence project errors. Hence it should not be too late to bail out of the F-35 if the F-35 drags out further overtime, overbudget, below technical expectations compared to emerging Russian and Chinese developments.  - Perhaps the US will over the F-22 in 2020 after its loyal allies have been politically pressured (behind closed doors) into buying the one and only present "choice" - the F-35. This might be an excellent marketing strategy for Lockheed Martin and its main current host nation (the US). - Boeing is providing competing products mainly based on the proven F-15, specifically the F-15SE Silent [Stealthy] Eagle. The F-15 would have many electronic and supply chain commonalities with the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets that Australia has just received. But purchasing an advance on a proven aircraft will be shot down as it goes against all bureaucrat inclinations since 1980 which is to: - create problems that can be solved - over quite some years - in  a career advancing way - for the fragmented many concerned - with a minimum of accountability for allies, federal and state governments, politicians, officials, senior officers, main contractors and smaller contractors - it being only taxpayers' money shared all round. . This is something I wrote about Australia's F-35 in 2008, called "Don't Buy in Haste" which achieved some short-term notoriety - and hasn't been proven wrong to date. - Pete

(revised) Indian Ballistic Missile Development - Agni 3 and K-15

February 7, 2010. Agni 3 launch - above and below (watchout, this one is LOUD)

Some of India's missiles including the K-15 (Sagarika), its launcher and the Agni 3 (or III)
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Background - This Space War article on India's ballistic missile history puts the February 7, 2010 Agni 3 test launch in perspective. This test is the latest milestone in India's Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP). The IGMDP theoretically closed down in 2007 but missile testing continues.

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February 7 launch of Agni 3 - The Hindu, reports :

"The launch of Agni-III, the missile with the longest range in India’s arsenal, from the Wheeler Island off Orissa on Sunday was a complete success.

Lifting off majestically at 10.50 a.m., it travelled its entire range of 3,500 km. and came down accurately on its target in the Bay of Bengal.

During its 800-second flight, it reached an altitude of 350 km. and its re-entry module sliced into the atmosphere, withstanding searing temperatures of 3,000 deg. Celsius.

The two-stage, surface-to-surface ballistic missile can carry nuclear warheads.

The nuclear triggering mechanism worked well although the missile carried only chemical explosives as payload.

An elated V.K. Saraswat, Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister, called it “a fantastic launch and a hat-trick.”

Talking to The Hindu from Wheeler Island, he said, “it shows the maturity of the missile’s design and the quality of its systems because we have had three successes in a row without any blemish.”

“The flight gave us the full range and pin-point accuracy. The missile travelled accurately its entire range to its last decimal place as we had planned. ”

As the nuclear-capable Agni-III missile zeroed in on the pre-designated target in the Bay of Bengal with copybook precision, anxiety turned into an all-round jubilation in the control room at Wheeler Island off the Orissa coast on Sunday.

...Dr. Saraswat congratulated the scientists for scoring a hat-trick of successes with Agni-III. He urged them to continue with their hard work and make a grand success of [the three stage] Agni-V, which is planned to be launched by the end of the year.

The Hindu, Febrary 5, 2010 earlier reported :

"The coming weeks/months will be hectic for the DRDO with one more launch of K-15 missile this month from a submerged pontoon off the coast of Visakhapatnam. The pontoon will simulate the conditions of a submarine. K-15 had been launched earlier from submerged pontoons, but this is a different version. The first version, called Mark-1, is being fitted into the indigenously built nuclear-powered submarine named Arihant.

After the K-15 missile clears the water medium, it climbs 20 km into the air and can destroy targets 700 km away. The missile forms part of the DRDO’s Sagarika project.

Shourya, which is the land-version of the underwater-launched K-15 missile, will have its second flight around June from the Integrated Test Range at Balasore, Orissa.

The fourth flight of India’s interceptor missile, which can knock out adversarial ballistic missiles at an altitude of 130 km, is scheduled for September.

The DRDO has already scored a hat-trick with three of its interceptor missiles confronting incoming “enemy” ballistic missiles in a “hit-to-kill” mode" "

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Comment

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The two stage Agni 3 is principally designed to hit some major Chinese cities out to 3,500 km - although this would be with a light nuclear payload. DRDO is working on a Submarine Launched Version of the Agni 3 missile, known as "K-X" which will provide India with a sea based second strike capability. The SLBM version is likely to be a miniaturized version of the Agni 3.

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Agni 5 will be a three stage improved version of Agni 3 with a longer range (out to 5,000 km) and large 1,500 kg payload at that range. Agni 5, capable of hitting ALL of China's major cities, may be tested in a year. See this report on Agni 3 and 5 as well as India's BMD and ASAT programs.

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The main role of K-15 (Sagarika) with a range of around 700km would be as a submarine launched second stike missile against Pakistan. It will not be until the K-X (a modified Agni 3) is developed that India will have a submarine missile with sufficient range for use against China.

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Pete