See "China" two-thirds the way down.
US Government funded
RadioFreeEuropeRadioLiberty February 5,
2020
reports:
“U.S. Deploys New, Low-Yield Nuclear Submarine Warhead To
Deter Russia”
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Navy announced it has put into
operation a low-yield, nuclear ballistic missile aboard a submarine [called
submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)]
as it seeks to deter adversaries like Russia.
This supplemental capability strengthens deterrence and
provides the United States a prompt, more survivable low-yield strategic
weapon; supports our commitment to extended deterrence,” Under Secretary of
Defense for Policy John Rood said in a statement on Feb. 4.
The administration of President Donald Trump first announced
its intention to deploy the W76-2 low-yield weapon in February 2018 after a
review concluded there was a perception of a gap in U.S. deterrence
capabilities.
The Nuclear Posture Review concluded that Russia has a
strategy known as "escalate to de-escalate," in which the Kremlin
would use or threaten to use low-yield nuclear weapons in a limited
conventional conflict in Europe to compel the United States and NATO to back
down.
"Recent Russian statements on this evolving nuclear
weapons doctrine appear to lower the threshold for Moscow's first-use of
nuclear weapons," the
2018 review said.
Democrats in the House of Representatives criticized the
deployment of the W76-2 as “dangerous” and said the Pentagon has refused to
answer Congressional questions about the weapon.
“The deployment of this warhead does nothing to make
Americans safer. Instead, this destabilizing deployment further increases the
potential for miscalculation during a crisis,” House Armed Services Committee
Chairman Adam Smith (Democrat-Washington) said in a statement.
Russia would not be able to determine if a weapon launched
from a nuclear submarine is low-yield or not, adversaries say.
[Some define the upper limit of "low-yield" as "50 kilotons"].
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) [January 29, 2020
estimated] the W76-2 has an explosive yield of about five
kilotons [equivalent to the explosive energy released by five thousand tonnes of TNT] compared with 90 kilotons for the W76-1. The atomic bomb
dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of about 15 kilotons.
The United States already has about 1,000 low-yield, nuclear
weapons that can be delivered by fighter jets, FAS said. Advocates for the new
submarine-based weapon say that the fighters might not be able to penetrate
Russian air space.
FAS said that
despite the focus on deploying the weapon to deter Russian aggression, the real
target “is much more likely” to be North Korea or Iran.”
------------------------------------
“The first ballistic missile submarine scheduled to deploy
with the new warhead was the USSTennessee (SSBN-734), which deployed from Kings Bay Submarine Base in
Georgia [USA] during the final weeks of 2019 for a deterrent patrol in the Atlantic
Ocean.... We estimate that one or two of the 20 missiles on the USS
Tennessee and subsequent subs will be armed with the W76-2, either singly or
carrying multiple warheads...The National Security Strategy and the NPR both
describe a role for nuclear weapons against “
non-nuclear strategic attacks, and large-scale conventional aggression.” [hence, so far not nuclear armed Iran becomes a possible target].
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Pete Comment
As well as intending Russia, North Korea and
Iran as targets the US also may have China in mind. China may see no US
equivalent to its new (probably low-yield) DF-21D anti-ship ballitic missile and DF-26 intermediate range ballistic missile. China may hope the US would hesitate to use standard higher yield 90 kiloton SLBM warheads to retaliate against DF-21D and DF-26 missiles based 100s
kms inland on the Chinese mainland. US low-yield SLBMs would provide a
proportionate rather than escalating US response.
China may assume that low-yield "carrier killing" DF-21D ballistic missiles may only need 5 kilotons yield
to destroy US Nimitz or Ford class carriers - at the same time detroying some escort vessels
in the carrier group.
Another
emerging Chinese low-yield candidate may be the DF-26 with sufficient range to be "Guam busting" .
Perhaps one destroying the US
Naval Base Guam which hosts nuclear Submarine Squadron 15 (with 4 US SSNs). Another DF-26 might destroy the nuclear bomber capable Andersen Air Force
Base on Guam which hosts B-2s (temporarily), B-1Bs and B-52s more
permanently.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Low-yield
concepts overlap with the "limited nuclear strike" concept that the
US explored in the 1970s but then was rejected by the Carter Administration.
The
Sydney Morning Herald, December 21, 2012 reported
:
"THAT America could launch a limited nuclear strike
against Russia was a fashionable belief in US strategic theory of the 1970s.
Policymakers thought that if Cold War tensions boiled over, they could hit
selected Soviet targets in a way that controlled further escalation and forced
Moscow to back down."
"Among the first targets would be the other side's
command and control centres - its eyes and ears. Once blinded, a superpower -
consisting of real people responding with human instincts - would not distinguish
a ''controlled'' strike from a full-scale attack and would retaliate with
everything it had."
Pete Comment
But that Sydney Morning Herald was written before North Korea became a nuclear threat and Iran a potential nuclear threat. Also China had not developed (likely) low-yield DF-21D and DF-26 ballistic missiles.
Pete
