Existing US Missile Becoming Intermediate Anti-Ship Missile like DF-21D

Josh made some valid points here and here on September 4, 2019 (in response to my article) regarding the unlikelihood of the US developing new land launched intermediate range missile systems. 

Reasons for unlikelihood include missile development costs, nuclear warhead redevelopment and production costs, pre-existence of US cruise missiles, guided bomb and ballistic missile dropping airpower and lack of allies willing to host land launched intermediate range missile systems.

On the assumption existing weapons are cheaper to further develop, hence "sell" to the US taxpayer and US government budgeters one exception might be extending the short (160 km) range of the US MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATacMS) to the now irrelevant 499 km intermediate treaty range.

The US has been studying intercontinental-global strike hypersonic weapons but they require much mere time and funds to develop than 2 intermediate range weapons that China has already developed. The US has been impressed with the hypersonic (with suspected but not yet fully demonstrated) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) capabilities of land launched Chinese DF-21Ds and DF-26s.

These represent new types of anti-ship weapon systems that US airpower and cruise missiles cannot match for speed-range.

A Possible US (DF-21D and DF-26 like) Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile  

The most likely candidate may be a future anti-ship version of an extended range MGM-140 (ATacMS). 

Helpfully the writers of Wikipedia have already broached the subject but, significantly they did this before the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty expired on February 1, 2019. Hence their reservations about limiting ATacMS range below the treaty limit of 500 km is no longer limiting. 

Wiki reports:

"In October 2016, it was revealed that the ATacMS would be upgraded with an existing seeker to enable it to strike moving targets on land and at sea.^[18]

In March 2016, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon announced they would offer a missile to meet the U.S. Army's Long Range Precision Fires (LRPF) requirement to replace the ATACMS. 

The missile will use advanced propulsion to fly faster and further, out to 310 miles (500 km) ([no longer] limited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty),^[19] while also being thinner and sleeker, increasing loadout to two per pod, doubling the number able to be carried by M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS launchers.^[20][21]

Lockheed and Raytheon will test-fire their submissions for the renamed Precision Strike Missile (PRSM) program in 2019, with the selected weapon planned to achieve Initial Operational Capability in 2023; the initial PRSM will only be able to hit stationary targets on land, but later versions will track moving targets on land and sea.^[22] 

If the United States withdraws from the INF Treaty [as it now has], the range of the PRSM could be increased beyond the '499 km' limitation placed upon it by the treaty.^[23]

As well as ships an ATacMS with a nuclear warhead could be used as a rapid intermediate range defense against enemy submarines and against Russia's Poseidon (Status-6)(NATO Kanyon) nuclear armed, nuclear propelled torpedo/AUV.

There are many points on US territory that a conventional or nuclear warhead, land based 500+ km range, anti-ship, ATacMS could be placed including:

-  east and west coast continental US
-  Alaska to block the Bering Strait and against Russia's Rybachiy SSBN and SSN Base
-  Hawaii (particularly if its range were boosted out to 5,500 km (like China's DF-26)
-  Guam to hit Chinese ships and submarines in the Yellow, East and South China Seas and Chinese
    coastal bases. 
-  Also acting as a second strike against Chinese nuclear tipped DF-21D and DF-26 use.

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATacMS)(Photo courtesy DEFPOST). 

---

Pete

Revolutionary Change in the US Alliance in Northeast Asia Coming

Anonymous reports that now we are going to experience the most revolutionary change in US alliance relations in Northeast Asia since the Korean War. 

According to the most influential Japanese commentator on Korean matters, Takabumi Suzuoki [1], in the near future, the US and South Korean (SK) alliance will be eliminated [2]. The geopolitical structure of the "red team" (China/Russia/North Korea (NK)) vs the "blue team" (US/Japan/SK) might change to China/Russia/Unified K vs US/Japan. The current border confrontation of the red and blue teams along the 38th parallel might shift to the Sea of Japan (the New Acheson Line). 

"SK is secretly establishing a nuclear propelled submarine and is going to equip it with nuclear missiles from NK. Such a situation is a nightmare for the blue team, but it is possible."

[1] Suzuoki predicted the eventual elimination of the US-SK alliance years ago. Many predictions by Suzuoki have been realized.

[2] The SK President, Moon Jae-inn, and Trump are expecting the elimination of the SK-US alliance. The recent withdrawal of SK from the SK-Japan intelligence sharing agreement, known as "General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA)" is one of the signs of the crumbling US-SK alliance.

Pete Comment

Trump's policy of bilateral talks with NK's Kim Jung-on, with minimal US confidential or publically demonstrated consultation with SK, has shaken SK.

SK's fear of growing (near-neighbour) Chinese economic and military power has led to SK efforts to strengthen relations with China. This has been at the expense of SK relations with the US.

Trade disputes between the US and SK also have increased tension. Additionally the Trump induced US-China trade dispute has impacted the SK economy and SK strategic confidence.

Anonymous and Pete

Possible Modern US Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles

So with the 500 km - 5,500 km range Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty being dead since February 1-2, 2019 the US has already test-launched medium range cruise missiles from ground platforms.

But what of:

-  the perfectly good Pershing II designs and hardware that were eliminated in 1991. Can the US
   develop "Pershing IIIs" (noting some coast-based ASBMs suggestions). Maybe deploy Pershing III
   as anti-ship (on continental US coasts, Hawaii, Midway Island, Guam, Diego Garcia) and where
   relevant land attack versions (in Alaska, even Singapore?)  as an answer to China's famous
   DF-21Ds and DF-26s.

-  longer than 500 km range future versions of the US MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile
   System (ATacMS) as an answer to the likely 500+km range of Russia's Iskander-M variant of the
   (NATO SS-26 Stone), ground launched versions of Russia's new Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ALBM and
   modern variants of the Soviet SS-20.

   :  Maybe for ATacMS-ER GLBM basing in NATO central-eastern European countries.

Any other eligible intermediate-range US missiles out there?

2.  There's a whole range of modern technologies that could improve on old INF Treaty terminated
     1991 missiles. This includes:

      -  vastly more accurate guidance for DF-21D style changes of course and more accurate
         (3 meter?) CEPs,
      -  more stealth and decoy measures, 
      -  improved rocket fuels for longer range per kg propellant, 
      -  ramjets, and 
      -  lighter, stronger, composite material booster casings for longer range.

Any other ballistic missile improvement technologies?

Pete

Nyonoksa incident: Attempted Recovery of Reactor or Nuclear Weapon

Josh and I continue to discuss the August 8 (or before) 2019 Nyonoksa Russia nuclear incident possibilities. In response to Josh's August 30, 2019 comment:

I reply:

Yes a failed submarine recovery of a reactor sounds plausible.

1.  The scenario may be:

with "The tests apparently showed that the nuclear-powered heart of the cruise missile failed to initiate and, therefore, the [Skyfall missile] weapon was unable to achieve the indefinite flight Putin had boasted about.". So it sounds like the liquid fuel Skyfall stage taking off from Nyonoksa succeeded. But then Skyfall's transition to reactor powered ramjet failed.

The submarine Losharik (see here and here) was tasked to recover the Top Secret Skyfall reactor before a Western submersible could snatch it. But then Losharik suffered its own battery explosion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_submarine_Losharik#2019_fire

A second recovery of the Skyfall reactor was attempted by an X-ray class submersible https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/678.htm or similar.

But the Skyfall reactor was running hot. Perhaps deep cold ocean water + the casing were sufficient to contain the heat but as it was brought to the surface by the X-ray, shallow water + disintergrating casing + even contact with air caused a heat increase amounting to explosion of the Skyfall reactor.

2.  Other possibilities were Losharik and then X-ray were attempting to recover:

A. what may be an old or newly lost submarine reactor that was running hot.

B. (before a Western submersible snatched it) a missile nuclear warhead

C. a dropped in error free-fall nuclear bomb (recalling a 1957 US incident
     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_17_nuclear_bomb#1957_incident ), or

D. a site where a Russian aircraft crashed into the sea with a nuclear weapon aboard.

In cases B, C and D the conventional explosives portions of the warhead/bomb may have exploded  spreading and/or fissioning nuclear material (similar to this old 1966 accident which included a "dirty bomb" effect  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Palomares_B-52_crash#Contamination ).

Pete

Different Account of the Nyonoksa Explosion - No Nuclear Rocket Engine

Scott Ritter, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer, writing in the The American Conservative, August 26, 2019, has a different account regarding the August 8, 2019 Nyonoksa (aka Nenoksa) explosion. Ritter's account is partly in line with Pete's belief (part expressed here) that there is no way, with Russia's limited military budget, and competing weapons' project demands, that it could be up to the nuclear reactor rocket engine test phase for the Skyfall cruise missile. 

Ritter's full report is at 

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/the-medias-russian-radiation-story-implodes-upon-scrutiny/ . The following is an abridged version: 

The Media’s Russian Radiation Story Implodes Upon Scrutiny

What really happened at Nenoska was less explosive than everyone, including Trump, wanted you to believe.

How the mainstream media reported an August 8 [2019] accident at a top-secret missile test facility in northern Russia should serve as a cautionary tale regarding the dangers of rushed judgments via institutional bias.

In the days following the initial report of the accident, the media exploded with speculation over both the nature of the device being tested at the Nenoksa State Central Marine Test Site and the Russian government’s muted response.

...They’re all wrong. Here’s the real story of what actually happened at Nenoksa.

...Russia has long been pursuing so-called “autonomous” weapons that can be decoupled from conventional means of delivery—a missile silo or a submarine—and instead installed in canisters that protect them from the environment. They would then be deployed on the floor of the ocean, lying in wait until remotely activated. One of the major obstacles confronting the Russians is the need for [constant temperature of rocket fuel and oxidizer and electrical/electronic] system equilibrium, including the onboard communications equipment, prior to activation. The power supply for any system must be constant, reliable, and capable of operating for extended periods of time without the prospect of fuel replenishment.

The solution for this power supply problem is found in so-called “nuclear batteries,” or radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG). [also see Wiki] An RTG generates electricity using thermocouples that convert the heat released by the decay of radioactive material. RTGs have long been used in support of operations in space. The Russians have long used them to provide power to remote unmanned facilities in the arctic and in mountainous terrain. Cesium-137, a byproduct of the fission of U-235, is considered an ideal radioisotope for military application RTGs.

On August 8 [2019], a joint team from the [Russian] Ministry of Defense and the All-Russian Research Institute of Experimental Physics, subordinated to the State Atomic Energy Corporation (ROSATOM), conducted a test of a liquid-fueled rocket engine, in which electric power from Cesium-137 “nuclear batteries” maintained its equilibrium state. The test was conducted at the Nenoksa State Central Marine Test Site (GTsMP), a secret Russian naval facility known as Military Unit 09703. It took place in the waters of the White Sea, off the coast of the Nenoksa facility, onboard a pair of pontoon platforms.

The test had been in the making for approximately a year. What exactly was being tested and why remain a secret, but the evaluation went on for approximately an hour. It did not involve the actual firing of the engine, but rather the non-destructive testing of the RTG power supply to the engine. 

The test may have been a final system check...

When the actual testing finished, something went very wrong. According to a sailor from the nearby Severdvinsk naval base, the hypergolic fuels contained in the liquid engine (their presence suggests that temperature control was one of the functions being tested) somehow combined. This created an explosion that destroyed the liquid engine, sending an unknown amount of fuel and oxidizer into the water. At least one, and perhaps more, of the Cesium-137 RTGs burst open, contaminating equipment and personnel alike. 

...The Russian Meteorological Service (Roshydromet) operates what’s known as the Automatic Radiation Monitoring System (ASKRO) in the city of Severdvinsk. ASKRO detected two “surges” in radiation, one involving Gamma particles, the other Beta particles. This is a pattern consistent with the characteristics of Cesium-137, which releases Gamma rays as it decays, creating Barium-137m, which is a Beta generator. The initial detection was reported on the Roshydromet website, though it was subsequently taken offline. 

Specialized hazardous material teams scoured the region around Nenoksa, Archangesk, and Severdvinsk, taking air and environmental samples. All these tested normal, confirming that the contamination created by the destruction of the Cesium-137 batteries was limited to the area surrounding the accident. Due to the large amount of missile fuel that was spilled, special restrictions concerning fishing and swimming were imposed in the region’s waters — at least until the fuel was neutralized by the waters of the White Sea. The damage had been contained, and the threat was over.

The reality of what happened at Nenoksa is tragic. Seven men lost their lives and scores of others were injured. But there was no explosion of a “nuclear cruise missile,” and it wasn’t the second coming of Chernobyl. America’s intelligence community and the so-called experts got it wrong — again. The root cause of their error is their institutional bias against Russia, which leads them to view that country in the worst possible light, regardless of the facts.

At a time when the level of mutual mistrust between our two nuclear-armed nations is at an all-time high, this kind of irresponsible rush to judgement must be avoided at all costs.

Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. He is the author of Deal of the Century: How Iran Blocked the West’s Road to War.

See Ritter's FULL REPORT HERE.
______________________________________________

There being no photos of radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs), that support Russian missiles, available, see the Cassini space probe RTG in the photo (above) and diagram (below) (courtesy NASA via Wikipedia).

Pete

The Reactor Blew Up during the Nyonoksa Skyfall Missile Test

On from Submarine Matters' Claim Russia's Nuclear Cruise Missile 9M730 Skyfall is "SUBSONIC" of August 18, 2019 on the Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile test explosion Ryan Pickrell for Business Insider Australia has written an interesting August 27, 2019 article, titled: 

"Fallout from Russia's mysterious missile disaster suggests a nuclear reactor blew up" which, in part, indicates:

"Russia’s state weather agency said on Monday [August 26, 2019] that a cloud of radioactive gases that swept across a Russian town earlier this month was produced by fast-decaying radioactive isotopes released by an explosion at the Nyonoksa testing range.

     Though Russia’s explanations for what occurred have varied, the blast has been tied to a failed missile test.

     A Norwegian nuclear expert told The Barents Observer that these isotopes – of strontium, barium, and lanthanum – were caused by a “nuclear chain reaction,” saying it was evidence that it “was a nuclear reactor that exploded.” 

...A mysterious explosion at a Russian weapons testing site earlier this month released various radioactive isotopes, creating a cloud of radioactive gases that swept across a nearby town, the country’s state weather agency said Monday, and experts said the mixture removes all doubt about what blew up.

The deadly August 8 [2019] blast at the Nyonoksa military weapons testing range released a handful of rapidly decaying radioactive isotopes – strontium-91, barium-139, barium-140, and lanthanum-140 – which have half-lives ranging from 83 minutes to 12.8 days, the Roshydromet national weather and environmental monitoring agency said in a statement.

...Alexander Uvarov, the editor of the independent news site AtomInfo.ru, told the news agency RIA Novosti that these isotopes were products of nuclear fission involving uranium, Agence France-Presse reported Monday. This collection of radioisotopes could be released by a reaction involving uranium-235.

...In the aftermath of the explosion, Russia’s explanation of the accident and its risks varied, several nuclear monitoring stations in Russia mysteriously went offline, doctors treating the wounded said that they were forced to sign nondisclosure agreements and that hospital records were destroyed, and one doctor was found to have a radioactive isotope in his muscle tissue. Russia has insisted that the cesium-137 detected was the result of something the doctor ate..."

READ THE WHOLE INTERESTING BUSINESS INSIDER AUSTRALIA ARTICLE
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But there is a new theory, pointing to a totally different reason for the Nyonoksa explosion, to be examinined tomorrow.

Pete