August 12, 2019

Hong Kong's Government appears to be closing Hong Kong Airport

PETE COMMENT

In a serious escalation of the Hong Kong crisis - the Hong Kong Government appears to be closing Hong Kong Airport. It is not yet known whether Chinese People's Armed [paramilitary] Police (PAP) from the Chinese mainland will soon clear the airport of protesters.

The PAP have been drilling with armoured vehicles (see ominous video) and massing just inside the Chinese border with Hong Kong.

See my earlier articles on the Hong Kong crisis of August 1, 2019 and July 1, 2019.

ARTICLE

Australia's government owned ABC News, August 12, 2019, 5pm Hong Kong time reports: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-12/hong-kong-airport-cancels-flights-as-protests-continue/11406806

"Hong Kong Airport cancels flights as protests continue


Hong Kong's airport has cancelled all remaining flights as several thousand pro-democracy protesters peacefully demonstrate at the terminal for a fourth day.

The international airport, one of the world's busiest, said in a statement on Monday that the demonstration has "seriously disrupted" airport operations.

All check-in services for departing flights have been suspended and only flights that have already completed the check-in process will move ahead the airport said.

Members of the public have been warned to avoid the area.

Traffic on roads to the airport was very congested and car park spaces were full, the airport said.

The increasingly violent protests have plunged Chinese-ruled Hong Kong into its most serious crisis in decades and presented a serious challenge to Beijing."
Courtesy Australia's ABC News based on News Agency Wires.
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Later Report

About 7pm (Hong Kong time) August 12, 2019 Chinese state media organ Global Times ominously reported the release of the video (below).

Pete Comment

The video is apparently about training of China's paramilitary People's Armed Police (PAP) (who wear green and camouflage uniforms, unlike the blue-black uniforms of normal police). The PAP, in wheeled armoured vehicles and trucks have been training, drilling and massing in the large Chinese city of Shenzhen – just across the border from Hong Kong.


Pete

August 11, 2019

What Andrew Hastie MP actually wrote about the China threat.

So what did Andrew Hastie actually say about (what a wide range of ill-informed pundits in Australia claim) was a comparison of China with Nazi Germany? Well the reality is less dramatic than the version of those who place trade with China higher than the American alliance.

Andrew Hastie is Federal Member for [like a Congressman for a Federal District of] Canning in Western Australia. More importantly Hastie is Chair of the Parliamentary Joint Committee for Intelligence and Security in Canberra. See the right sidebar for some details about the Committee. 

In the Sydney Morning Herald, on August 8, 2019, Hastie wrote an Opinion piece which contained many newslinks and photos, so you can see the original here https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-see-china-the-opportunities-and-the-threats-with-clear-eyes-20190807-p52eon.html

But the actual text of what he wrote is most important. Here it is below:

“We must see China - the opportunities and the threats - with clear eyes
By Andrew Hastie [federal member for [like a Congressman for a Federal District of] Canning [Western Australia] and the chair of the parliamentary joint committee for intelligence and security.]

Like many people across the world, I saw 9/11 as the geopolitical moment that would shape the 21st century. It shaped the next decade of my own life. But I was wrong.
The most significant geopolitical moment of the 21st century had already happened, five months earlier. And most of us, distracted by more dramatic events, failed to see it. It came on April Fool’s Day, 2001.
A J-8 fighter jet from the People’s Liberation Army Navy collided with a US Navy EP-3 signals intelligence aircraft, 70 kilometres off the coast of Hainan Island. Both planes began plummeting toward the South China Sea. The PLAN fighter pilot did not survive. The 24 crew of the badly damaged US EP-3 managed a hard landing on the island, and, after being offered water and cigarettes, were held for 11 days by the Chinese government.
The crew was released to the US, but the aircraft was returned much later – in many small pieces – via a Russian Antonov cargo plane. This was an early test for the Bush administration, only 10 weeks old. It was faced with brinkmanship, intelligence plundering and technology transfer.

All this took place over what are now contested waters — where today the PLAN has forged unsinkable aircraft carriers, out of reefs and atolls.
The Hainan Island incident laid down the contours for the present challenge facing Australia. It portended the agonising security and economic balancing act we must now perform. That clash, almost 20 years ago, has now grown into overt geopolitical rivalry across the Indo-Pacific. The US seeks to remain the dominant power in the region and the People's Republic of China works to supplant it.
Australia must now, somehow, hold on to our sovereignty and prosperity. We must balance security and trade. But most importantly, we must remain true to our democratic convictions while also seeing the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.
This will be immensely difficult. It is impossible to forsake the US, our closest security and investment partner. It is also impossible to disengage from China, our largest trading partner. This is the central point: almost every strategic and economic question facing Australia in the coming decades will be refracted through the geopolitical competition of the US and the PRC.
The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, made that much abundantly clear when he said "the world has been asleep at the switch".
We must be clear-eyed about our position in the world. We are resetting the terms of engagement with China to preserve our sovereignty, security and democratic convictions, as we also reap the benefits of prosperity that come with our mutually beneficial trade relationship.
Last year, the Coalition government secured bipartisan passage of laws countering espionage, foreign interference and influence. Tough decisions were made on our future 5G network to safeguard our digital sovereignty for the generations to come. Critical assets, such as ports and gas pipelines, are now monitored much more closely, in recognition of their importance to our national life together.
But there is more to be done. Right now our greatest vulnerability lies not in our infrastructure, but in our thinking. That intellectual failure makes us institutionally weak. If we don’t understand the challenge ahead for our civil society, in our parliaments, in our universities, in our private enterprises, in our charities — our little platoons — then choices will be made for us. Our sovereignty, our freedoms, will be diminished.
[The following paragraph is the alleged Nazi Germany bit] 

The West once believed that economic liberalisation would naturally lead to democratisation in China. This was our Maginot Line. It would keep us safe, just as the French believed their series of steel and concrete forts would guard them against the German advance in 1940. But their thinking failed catastrophically. The French had failed to appreciate the evolution of mobile warfare. Like the French, Australia has failed to see how mobile our authoritarian neighbour has become.
Even worse, we ignore the role that ideology plays in China's actions across the Indo-Pacific region. We keep using our own categories to understand its actions, such as its motivations for building ports and roads, rather than those used by the Chinese Communist Party.
The West has made this mistake before. Commentators once believed Stalin’s decisions were the rational actions of a realist great power. But the Princeton Professor of History, Stephen Kotkin, found otherwise, after years of sifting through the archives of top Soviet meetings. He discovered that Stalin and his advisers “said the same things as they said in their propaganda … [using] all the Marxian categories, because it turns out the Communists were Communists! They believed in the ideas and it’s only by taking the ideas and politics seriously, can you understand the phenomenon.”
We must be intellectually honest and take the Chinese leadership at its word. We are dealing with a fundamentally different vision for the world. Xi Jinping has made his vision of the future abundantly clear since becoming President in 2013. His speeches show that the tough choices ahead will be shaped, at least on the PRC side, by ideology – communist ideology, or in his words, by "Marxist-Leninism and Mao Zedong Thought".
Xi’s view of the future is one where capitalism will be eclipsed and "the consolidation of and development of the socialist system will require its own long period of history … it will require the tireless struggle of generations, up to 10 generations".
With history as our guide, we have no reason to doubt President Xi Jinping. Our next step in safeguarding Australia’s future is accepting and adapting to the reality of the geopolitical struggle before us – its origins, its ideas and its implications for the Indo-Pacific region.
The next decade will test our democratic values, our economy, our alliances and our security like no other time in Australian history.
Andrew Hastie is the federal member for Canning and the chair of the parliamentary joint committee for intelligence and security.”

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See the original Sydney Morning Herald, piece with many newslinks and interesting photos, here https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-must-see-china-the-opportunities-and-the-threats-with-clear-eyes-20190807-p52eon.html

Some intriguing situations Pete and Intel Family Members experienced

You may have noticed I've been writing little on this Submarine Matters lately.

I have been very busy commenting on other fora. Specifically

-  the Aussie's On Line Opinion with me commenting 2-3 times a day as plantagenet
   here is the list of my 4,000+ comments since 2005.

and

-  US Intelnews commenting 1-2 times weekly as Pete

You'll notice an undeniable mindset aimed at (internal, external and sigint) intel collection and analysis, but mainly from-security-intel-angle.

Much of this has been inspired by 3 Americans on the  game: A. in cyber security; B. mainly the security one with access to the 2 most famous bureau (mid level) and agency (an ex DD (Analysis); and C. in border protection. That was since 2005 until 3 years before Operation Neptune Spear, notingEarlier, in 2006, I commented to a US contact (D) that bin Laden would not rely on electronic communications with bin Laden's network, but instead rely on hardcopy message couriers to-from  bin Laden.

Since 2005 my communications have been closely monitored by 2 Five-Eyes. Fear not, I only consider traveling to Five-Eye-Safe Aus, NZ and UK, and telegraph my movements. I only use the same long term mobile and ISP accounts for ease of the established monitoring.

Also inspired by a lifetime of reading intelligence biographies, autobiogs, fiction and non-fiction (books, articles, websites, Youtubes, movies, TV series and newspapers). 

Several family members being a broader part of the game:

-  One, Grandad I never saw, on my Father's side, in then British run New Delhi, working with
   electrical aspects of ULTRA and MAGIC intercept support in the early 1940s. Then UK tank 
   development. Later honoured with an OBE in 1961 "see George Leopold Albert COATES, Esq.,
   Engineer I, Military Engineering 
Experimental Establishment, Christchurch, [UK] War Office." 

-  Another, Grandad on my Mother's side, (paid by US or Australian DoDs?) to regularly fly into
   Alice Springs to provide orthodontic services to Pine Gap staff and their families (1960s-70s).

-  the last, my Dad, from Vietnam 1970 (counter-insurgency tactical intel) up to (access to
   everything) Defense Attache to the US to mid 80s. Me often being told way too much by family on
   the game.


Also by experinces triggered by such articles as thisthis , this and this. In 2008 I scored a visit by a Chinese male "student" to my very small remote town. A "student" with an unenviable task as my town (where no Chinese lived...) was way out of the permitted Chinese diplomatic travel radius from Capital City. Aforesaid Chinese "student", of the thin cover carrying a camera (in his words "to take a picture" of my 90yo little old lady neigbour's old house...!) in retrospect, placed a GPS tracking device on my car. So when I visited Capital City in 2009 I was boxed-in by a Chinese team of 4 single, fit, chaps of around 30 years old. The 4 were just peaceably applying "here we are" pressure, thank goodness. The 4 had no plausible reason to be "window shopping" half an hour before the shops of the very cold Capital City opened. 

So after all this I'm being encouraged to wean off the intel mindset with more about other genres, eg. crime thrillers (good, not far different from spy thrillers) and even fantasy (but the fantasy genre will never happen :)

I'm also writing more poetry (see https://petercoatespoems.blogspot.com/ ) and non-fiction with an emphasis on political satire, which will one day be funny

---------------------------------------------------.

On another matter :

Thankyou /Kjell

For directing me to a glaring defect in my blog software. 

I have found over 350 comments in my Pending Comment bin that never went through to my email - some as far back as 2017. After removing around 150 SPAM comments I have just published all the Pending Comments, about 200. 

My apologies to commenters, whose comments were, for a time, lost, hence not responded to - which I'll do over the next few days.


About 500 comments did get through to my email since 2017. I published them on the day received. 

Cheers


Pete

August 5, 2019

Comment on The Costs of an Independent Nuclear Submarine Deterrent

See former UK Royal Navy nuclear submarine Commander, Robert Forsyth's 's excellent essay of July 31, 2019 at ASPI's The Strategist website, at

 https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/counting-the-costs-of-an-independent-nuclear-deterrent/

Comment

Inspired by the essay an independent (of France, the UK or US) Australian nuclear deterrent (using submarines) would be totally unaffordable with Australia's much lower technical, financial and personnel resources than the 6 SSBN/SSN powers. And also considering the UK dependently used/uses US designs and build methods for its nuclear (submarine) reactors, all the SLBMs (Polaris through to Trident D5) and the SSBNs and SSNs themselves.

Necessities for an independent Australian nuclear deterrent

-  developing (maybe A$200 Billion?) and building 4 ultra modern, discrete, SSBNs, with a SSBN 40
   year program life cost of another A$300 Billion?


Would be even more unaffordable for Australia as a whole system of support forces and communications are required, including:

-  developing and building our own nuclear (submarine) reactors (even France has major problems
   doing that),
 SLBMs, associated space-launch system, nuclear warheads, specialised satellites for
   navigation, targeting and communications systems. (A$300 Billion?).

-  a more isolated new west coast Australian base (A$20 Billion? minimum) or at least heavily rebuilt
   submarine base (at HMAS Stirling, Fleet Base West, Rockingham) would be required.

-  due to the distance to Australia’s east coast, strategic redundancy, and possibility of SSBN or SSN
   breakdown a new secondary east coast submarine base may need to be built (being politically
   realistic it would probably be in Queensland, A$15 Billion?). 

This is because the current secondary base in Sydney Harbour would be unsuitable. This is due to lack of space (for nuclear submarines AND nuclear weapons) and especially due to reactor leak safety concerns and the inevitable public/political rejection of nuclear propelled, nuclear armed submarines in the harbour of Australia’s largest city.

To protect each of the 4 SSBN being rotated an SSN, at least one surface ship and maritime patrol aircraft would be required. 

-  this requires (development and building) a force of at least 6 ultra-modern SSNs.(A$500 Billion?)

There would also be consequent huge and growing strains on the conventional forces of the Australian Navy and also a major drop in financial and personnel resources for the Australian Army and Air Force. 

Conclusion

So due to development time and the astronomical figures above an independently developed and built Australian nuclear deterrent using nuclear submarines is impossible. 

If Australia were ever to have SSBNs, SLBMs and SSNs they would need to be developed and most probably built overseas, with the only choices being France, the US or UK.

Pete

August 2, 2019

PLA Threatens Tiananmen Square...Against Hong Kong Protesters

On July 2, 2019 I wrote an article "Coming Military Crackdown in Hong Kong?" which included:


"So damage to the Hong Kong Parliament may provide a pretext for a paramilitary police and then a military crackdown. Perhaps a broader circle of democracy activists in Hong Kong will also be arrested.

The Beijing Government can suspend the legal convention that the [Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA)] cannot interfere in Hong Kong's internal affairs. This is because the PLA has always had an underlying or active role in internal security for all regions of China. 


The 6,000 PLA troops based in Hong Kong can quickly be reinforced with several brigades of armoured vehicles from the mainland. The PLA's Hong Kong Garrison is under the direct leadership of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission and under administrative control of PLA's SouthernTheater Command."

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Now not so subtle Chinese military (PLA) threats (on July 31/August 1, 2019) to intervene in Hong Kong seem to be making my earlier expressed concerns a reality. 

The main threat is a 3 minute video posted July 31/Aug 1, 2019 on the Hong Kong PLA garrison's official Weibo social media account (now on Youtube here and below):


In scenes intentionally evoking the Tiananmen Square Massacre the Video/Youtube includes:

0 to 40 seconds in - dark, forboding music, footage of PLA troops firing assault rifles, aiming a
                   handgun, firing sniper's rifle


40s - 58s - anti-riot drill against student-like "protesters"

58s - 1m25s - armoured cars (can be called "wheeled armoured personnel carriers") crushing 
                  barricades, barbed wire, water canon, protesters herded under guard, 14.5mm heavy
                  machine guns, more armoured cars

1m25s - 2m - off on tangent showing PLA's naval, attack helicopter, artillery-missile and
                  anti-aircraft might


2m2s to the End - happy music, the peaceful alternative of military parades in front of appreciative,
                  patriotic, cheering crowds and PLA civil assistance roles, raising flag, goose-stepping.


All stating clearly You Choose Your Fate (Being Crushed or Peace) Protesters!

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, when asked about the video, said at a briefing in Beijing on Aug 2(?), 2019:

"We believe that the Hong Kong garrison of the People's Liberation Army will continue to become a stabilising pillar for Hong Kong's long-term prosperity and stability..." 

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Conflicting reports of a troop buildup on the Chinese mainland Hong Kong Border.

August 1, 8.54am - "The White House is monitoring the sudden “congregation” of Chinese forces at the border with Hong Kong, according to reports, following another night of unrest and clashes between protesters and police."

On Aug 1, 2019 Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said

"I'm not aware of the [PLA gathering near the "boundary" between Hong Kong and the mainland.]"

At Aug 2, 2019 Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying  did not directly repond to press question.

"Q: According to reports, some Hong Kong civil servants will gather at the Central District tonight to call for the cancellation of the amendment bill to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance.

There have been claims that the Hong Kong SAR government will take this as a reason to ask the PLA Hong Kong Garrison to enforce martial law on the early morning of [Sunday] August 4. 


Reportedly they will clear the staff of American and European consulates-general and American and British passport-holders from Hong Kong. What's your response to such claims?"


Pete Comment

(Map above) "northern" Hong Kong (ie New Territories and Kowloon) shares a land border with "mainland China" providing ample road approaches (from Shenzhen, etc) for troops to provide backup to the 6,000+ PLA already in Hong Kong. Then crossing the bridges south to Hong Kong Island (Lantau and smaller islands) could be the next step. Landing troops by helicopter and from barges/landing craft can always happen simultaneously. 

The "gathering" might most obviously mean PLA troop/supply trucks and armoured cars on the road/land border. 

The PLA, as the military wing of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), explicitly follows the orders of the CCP, not the civil Beijing or Hong Kong government. 

This means that there would be a greater secrecy/opacity of CCP discussions on whether or when to send in the PLA. Hence a greater chance of Western government and media surprise.

As Sundays have become the traditional time of Hong Kong protests, Sunday August 4, 2019 (Hong Kong time) might be a time of PLA intervention. This depends on how violent/confrontational-to-CCP-order the protests get.

Pete

India's old, symbolic, submarine, INS Sindhuvir, to Myanmar

India is discussing with Myanmar the part symbolic transfer, perhaps in late 2019, of one of India’s Russian-made Kilo-class SSKs to Myanmar's Navy. To achieve a late 2019 transfer, India will need to refit (including derust) the submarine very quickly indeed at India’s usually slow east coast Vishakhapatnam/Vizag naval shipyard.

This news comes from a July 30 2019 report in India’s Economic Times. Russia, which will need to supply many essential spare parts, is in agreement with the transfer.


The submarine in question has been identified as INS Sindhuvir. Sindhuvirlaunched in Russia in 1987is 32 years old, that is, already past its 30 year use-by-date. Age means Sindhuvir will be a constant and expensive maintenance headache for Myanmar and India. A large team of Indian crewman and shore based maintainers will be needed in Myanmar for several years to transfer their skills to the Myanmar Navy. Also any major "deep" maintenance of Sindhuvir will still need to take place at an Indian naval shipyard. 
The Myanmar Navy has no experience in operating and maintaining submarines. Myanmar’s possession of just one submarine does not mean Myanmar will have an operational submarine capability. Myanmar would need 2 submarines and ideally 3 to have 1 always available for operations. Sindhuvir's age and training role mean Myanmar will need to soon order 2 or 3 new or young second hand subs to have a viable and ongoing submarine arm.
Myanmar’s most plausible future strategic opponents are Bangladesh (with 2 old ex Chinese Ming class submarines) and Thailand (which will eventually receive 3 new-build modified Yuan class submarines from China). Most of Myanmar’s tensions with Bangladesh and Thailand are now mainly over cross border illegal immigrant/refugee flows.
The other major naval powers in the region (the US, India and China) are simply too large for Myanmar to strategically face and in any case they do not have hostile relations with Myanmar.
Sindhuvir’s age and Myanmar’s lack of experience mean the Sindhuvir will primarily be a training, regime prestige vessel and symbol of good relations with India. For a first submarine Sindhuvir is very large at up to 3,100 tonnes submerged (see right sidebar). This is a large sub to operate in Myanmar's mostly very shallow (less than 200m deep) coastal waters (see the depth map below). 
Myanmar’s Navy is primarily a policing/coastguard one with 2 modern light frigates, an old frigate, 3 corvettes and a gaggle of patrol boats of various sizes and ages. 
That Myanmar is acquiring its first submarine from India/Russia instead of China (on Myanmar’s border) indicates Myanmar is balancing its relations with those 3 powers.

At top left, much of Myanmar's coastal region is very shallow (less than  200m) to operate a submarine as large as INS Sindhuvir.
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INS Sindhuvir is an early model Kilo (Project 877) class submarine (specifications above), with high maintenance needs already, due to its 1987 launch age of 32. 
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INS Sindhuvir 2 years ago (Photo courtesy The Hindu)
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Pete