March 4, 2016

Australian "Delay" in Receiving the Future Subs

Note that the new submarines will only begin to be built in about 12 years time - for entry into service not in the late 2020s but the early 2030s. 

There is currently a political confrontation between former Prime Minister Abbott and current Prime Minister Turnbull over what Abbott perceives as a new submarine "delay". 

Only beginning the build in 2027 may cause much uncertainty for the winning contender. The delay may effect TKMS and DCNS less as there is a full export or foreign build order book for TKMS (for Greece, Turkey, Egypt, Singapore, Israel and South Korea) and almost full for DCNS (India and Brazil).

For Japan it is a long wait. The delay may benefit Australia with the opportunity for Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs), new diesels and the new snorkel system being operationally tested in Japanese Soryu Mark 2s and new, post Soryu class, over a longer period. If Japan is chosen see the Australian build details in red in the SORYU TABLE below. 

If TKMS or DCNS are chosen Australia may benefit from those companies spending a longer period developing and testing new air independent propulsion (AIP) technologies and also LIBs.

Without the CEP contender even being announced the "delay" controversy should serve as a warning to contenders about how political the new submarine issue is in Australia. Australian government decisions may continue to be surprising, personality and election driven. Different Prime Ministers and Coalition versus Labor governments may have conflicting ideas as to when and where the submarines should be assembled.

SORYU TABLE (with earlier Oyashios, as at March 22, 2016)
SS
No.
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥ Billions & FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi-ssioned
Built
By
5SS
8105
Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B
FY1993
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios
10 subs
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 Feb 1994
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS Soryu
Mark 1
8116
Sōryū
SS-501
¥60B FY2004
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
No
21SS
No 21SS built
22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
Mar 2013
Nov 2015
Mar 2017
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
Oct 2013
Nov 2016
Mar 2018
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
LABs + AIP
?
?
Mar 2019
KHI
27SS
Soryu
Mark 2
8126
SS-511
¥64.3B FY2015
LIBs only
?
?
Mar 2020
MHI
28SS
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
LIBs only
?
?
Mar 2021
KHI
29SS
?
?
 1st of New
Japanese  Class
LIBs only
?
?
2023?
MHI?
Aus1
?
?
1st of new Aus class (if Japan chosen)
LIBs only
2028?
2030?
2033?
in Aus or Jpn?
Aus2 to 12?
?
?
between 5 and 11 additional Aus subs
LIBs only
from 2029?
from 2031?
from 2034?
in Aus or Jpn?
Table courtesy of information provided to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, 

AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = lithium-ion batteries.  



Pete

March 3, 2016

2016 Defence White Paper - Comparing Australia's relations with the 3 Submarine Contender countries

Continuing the keyword search approach to the 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP), using Ctrl + F, throws up comparative data on the three CEP participants by country (Germany, France and Japan).

This is particularly useful if there were a correlation between the number of mentions on countries/peoples and the choice of CEP winner. This is noting that the Governments of France and  Germany (and Japan of course) have leant weight to the corporate bids.

Also important is the more subjective element of the context of each comment. Quoting actual paragraphs below does to some extent remove the distortions of a document analyst's preconceptions. Distortion is known as the sin of "situating an analysis".

In the search process I have cited the mentions using the clearly marked paragraph numbers in the text. 

Keyword search of the DWP - large PDF, 10 MB, 191 pages, at  http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/Docs/2016-Defence-White-Paper.pdf  yielded:

GERMAN/GERMANY

3 mentions.

2.105 Australia welcomes the comprehensive plan of action negotiated between the Permanent Five members of the United Nations Security Council (the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom) plus Germany [P5 + 1] ...on Iran’s nuclear program.

4.121 France, Germany and Japan, are participating in the future submarine Competitive Evaluation Process [CEP], which will assess their ability to partner with Australia to deliver the future submarines...

5.86 Australia will also work with other partners, [War on Terror] ...This includes cooperation with a broad coalition of concerned countries, including...Germany.

FRANCE/FRENCH

10 mentions.

2.69 To help countries in our immediate neighbourhood respond to the challenges they face, Australia will continue to play an important regional leadership role. ...We will continue to play that role in close collaboration with New Zealand, France, the United States, Japan and other partners.

2.105 [see above]

4.121 [see above]

5.39 We will coordinate our efforts, particularly in relation to maritime security and disaster relief, with New Zealand, France, the United States and Japan.

5.83 Australia and France share a longstanding and close defence relationship with a shared commitment to addressing global security challenges such as terrorism and piracy. We are strong partners in the Pacific where France maintains important capabilities and we also work closely together to support the security of our respective Southern Ocean territories. Under the FRANZ Arrangement between France, Australia and New Zealand the three partners coordinate humanitarian and disaster relief operations in the Pacific. Australian and French defence forces worked alongside each other to provide life-saving humanitarian assistance to Vanuatu in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Pam.

5.84 Following the 13 November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, Australia has expressed its unwavering solidarity with the people of France. Australia will continue to work with France and other like-minded countries to combat Daesh as part of the fight against terrorism.

JAPAN/JAPANESE

36 mentions

Most are below.

Page 22 Executive Summary [no paragraph number available]  "As Australia’s strategic environment becomes more complex it is important to further develop our international partnerships including with our allies the United States and New Zealand, and with Japan, Indonesia, India, Singapore, the Republic of Korea, China and other key partners."

2.3 " Three Free Trade Agreements, with Korea, Japan and China, have entered into force since December 2015. The Trans Pacific Partnership between 12 regional nations, which account for 40 per cent of global trade, including the United States, Japan and Australia, has great potential to further drive opportunities for growth in Australia."

2.37 Asia’s defence spending is now larger than Europe’s. [Japan is in Figure 1]

2.69 ...We will continue to play that role in close collaboration with New Zealand, France, the United States, Japan and other partners.

2.72 ...The waters of South East Asia carry the great majority of Australia’s international trade including to our three largest export markets in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Nearly two thirds of Australia’s exports pass through the South China Sea, including our major coal, iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports...

2.80 Australia is committed to working with the countries of South East Asia, and with the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, India and China to support security, development and growth.

2.85 Australia has a deep and abiding interest in peace, stability and security in North Asia. More than half of Australia’s exports are to North Asia, with China, Japan and the Republic of Korea being three of Australia’s four biggest trading partners. Almost all of that trade, by volume, moves by sea. While our interests in peace and security in North Asia are vital, our capacity to influence events acting alone is limited. Our defence engagement in North Asia will continue to be based on partnerships, including with Japan, the Republic of Korea, and our alliance with the United States.

2.91 Japan is a major power in North Asia with advanced self-defence forces and is an important contributor to regional and global security. Australia welcomes the prospect of Japan playing a larger role in international security and will continue to deepen and broaden our growing security cooperation with Japan. More details on the Australia-Japan relationship can be found in Chapter Five.

3.9 below this para is [Figure 2. which has a prominent place for Japan as Australia's second top trading partner.]

4.121 France, Germany and Japan, are participating in the future submarine Competitive Evaluation Process [CEP], which will assess their ability to partner with Australia to deliver the future submarines...

5.9 The Government will increase the number of multinational exercises the ADF participates in across our immediate region and the broader IndoPacific, working closely with the United States, Japan and other regional countries and international partners.

5.17 The Government’s highest priority will continue to be our alliance with the United States. We will look to mature and deepen practical engagement with partners across the Indo-Pacific, particularly Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, India and China. We will also maintain global partnerships including with NATO...

5.28 The United States Force Posture Initiatives will also provide opportunities for broader collaboration between the United States, Australia and partners in the Indo-Pacific, including Japan

5.39 We will coordinate our efforts, particularly in relation to maritime security and disaster relief, with New Zealand, France, the United States and Japan.

5.59 Japan is a major power in North Asia with advanced military forces and an increasingly active approach to regional security. Australia and Japan have a deep and broad relationship. We share democratic values, have been close economic partners for decades and more recently we have become close strategic partners. We each have alliances with the United States and we have common strategic interests in secure and free-flowing trade routes, a stable Indo-Pacific region and a rules-based global order. We welcome the Japanese Government’s recent decision to adopt policies that will enable it to contribute more directly to regional and global security and stability.

5.60 Australia has a growing security relationship with Japan. In recent years we have signed treaty-level agreements on cooperation in defence science and technology, information sharing and logistics support. These agreements provide the basis for further developing our defence cooperation based on the 2007 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation. 

5.61 Australia and Japan are implementing a broad range of initiatives to further enhance practical defence cooperation. These initiatives will strengthen defence cooperation in a number of areas including: increased training and exercises between all three Services, increased personnel exchanges, deepening cooperation on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, maritime security, peacekeeping, capacity building and increasing trilateral cooperation with our common ally the United States. We will enhance strategic dialogue between Australia and Japan, which includes joint Defence and Foreign Affairs 2+2 dialogue held at Ministerial level, as well as senior officials’ level dialogue. We will continue to explore opportunities to expand cooperation with Japan in areas such as intelligence, developing common capabilities like the Joint Strike Fighter, air and missile defence and maritime warfare technologies. 

5.62 To underpin our growing cooperation, we will work towards an agreement with Japan that improves our administrative, policy, and legal procedures to facilitate joint operations and exercises. 

5.63 We will continue to expand trilateral defence cooperation between Australia, Japan, and the United States for our mutual benefit.

5.67 Our strong defence relationship is underpinned by a mutual interest in working together with the United States and Japan to contribute to security in North Asia and shared concern about the threat posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. 

OTHER KEYWORD MENTIONS WERE

Indo-Pacific 68
Asia 85
Pacific 137
ANZUS (only) 7
NATO 13
Europe 2

COMMENT

If Australia is not putting any weight on intergovernmental relations in the CEP then the keyword search frequency approach to the DWP may be irrelevant.

Nevertheless, looking at the results:

Germany gets honourable mention as one of the P5 + 1 nations on Iran nuclear; is a CEP participant and is/has been a fellow venturer with Australia in the Middle East and Afghanistan in the War on Terror.

France, usually grouped with other regional nations, cooperates with Australia on maritime security especially Pacific regional humanitarian/disaster relief and is in CEP. We jointly work together on global security including counter-terrorism and piracy. France, Australia and New Zealand are party to the FRANZ Arrangement.

In March 2016 Japan is way ahead on mentions and column inches. Australia's current and future relationship with Japan appears very close. This is on the alliance, common opponents, importance of North Asia,  officer exchanges, 2 + 2, second top trade partner, in CEP, Japan being more active in regional order, treaty-level agreements on cooperation in defence science and technology, information sharing and logistics support.

Paragraph 5.61 summarises the growing Australia - Japan relationship well. Rather revealing on the CEP may be the final sentence of 5.61 "We will continue to explore opportunities to expand cooperation with Japan in areas such as intelligence, developing common capabilities like...maritime warfare technologies."

So even if Japan were not the CEP winner there is what amounts to a close alliance relationship with Australia to console Japan.

Pete

Australia CEP contenders - Japan's KHI

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI's), Kobe, Japan shipyard.
---

(Map on KHI's Kobe shipyard)
---

Submarine Matters follows a philosophy of not favouring any one of the 3 contenders in the CEP. There are weaknesses and strengths in all 3 bids. 

It is important to get more acquainted with the 3 contenders. This will be done in four articles (one per week). There will be an article each for DCNS and TKMS and 2 (KHI and MHI) in the Japanese bid. There are actually three partners in the Japanese bid which may make things potentially complicated. Within the Japanese bid are:

- the Japanese Ministry of Defence (JMoD or just MOD) important in what has been described as a government-to-government bid

-  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) described as the leader of the bid, and

-  Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) (and within KHI its subsidiary Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation (KSC)). KHI is much more than a sub-contractor or supplier as it assembles Soryus itself every second year.

KAWASAKI HEAVY INDUSTRIES (KHI)

KHI is the parent company of a group of more 100 affiliates and subsidiaries in Japan and overseas. KHI builds aircraft, helicopters, rockets, satellites, vehicles, factories, huge fixed generators, replacement engines of all types and other equipment.

Subsidiary KSC builds commercial vessels, including oil tankers, bulk, LNG and LPG carriers, container ships, jetfoils. KSC also builds warships for the Japanese Navy including submarines along with essential submarine components like snorkels, propellers and diesels.

KHI has 35, 471 employees (2015) and net sales of 1.49 Trillion Yen in (Fiscal year ended March 31, 2015). That is equivalent to A$189 Billion (by my reckoning!).

KHI works very closely with MHI on design, testing and supplying submarines parts to each other. Both companies build their submarines at Kobe. Perhaps each builds whole sections then transports by barge or rail(?) the sections to the other's Kobe submarine yard?

Note that since the Hayashio/Natsushio class in the 1960s KHI has assembled/launched every second Japanese submarine. This permanent arrangement is evident in the latest Soryu class - see "Built By" in the SORYU TABLE below.

SORYU TABLE (with earlier Oyashios, as at March 2, 2016)
SS
No.
Building
No.
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥ Billions & FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi-ssioned
Built
By
5SS
8105
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B
FY1993
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios
10 subs
8106
-8115
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 Feb 1994
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS Soryu
Mark 1
8116
SS-501
¥60B FY2004
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
No
21SS
No 21SS built
22SS
8121
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
Mar 2013
Nov 2015
Mar 2017
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
Oct 2013
Nov 2016
Mar 2018
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
LABs + AIP
?
?
Mar 2019
KHI
27SS
Soryu
Mark 2
8126
SS-511
¥64.3B FY2015
LIBs only
?
?
Mar 2020
MHI
28SS
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
LIBs only
?
?
Mar 2021
KHI
29SS
?
?
 1st of New
Japanese  Class
LIBs only
?
?
2023?
MHI?
Aus1
?
?
1st of new Aus class (if Japan chosen)
LIBs only
2027?
2029?
2032?
in Aus or Jpn?
Aus2 to 12?
?
?
between 5 and 11 additional Aus subs
LIBs only
from 2029?
from 2031?
from 2033?
in Aus or Jpn?

Table courtesy of updates provided to Submarine Matters. LABs = lead-acid batteries, 
AIP = air independent propulsion, LIBs = lithium-ion batteries.  
---

A selection of important components KHI builds for submarines includes:

New Diesels - KHI developed four-stroke diesel engines for surface ships with some assistance from  MAN Diesel & Turbo. However, the Soryu submarine's 2 x Kawasaki 12V/25/25 SB diesels are sufficiently modified to be considered original Kawasaki products. This uniqueness is a security  advantage over European companies (MTU-Germany and MAN-France) that might be tempted to share submarine diesel technology with China (a much bigger and attractive customer than Australia). The KHI 12V/25/25 SB will need to be heavily modified into a new engine to be compatible with the faster running demands of Lithium-ion Batteries on Soryu Mark 2s, from 27SS onwards. 

New Snorkel System - this is an integrated system of snorkel and diesel generation capable of operating very quickly and in storms (in the Southern Ocean and tropics). This means that during storms a submarine will not have to "go deep" below the weather (while its batteries run down) or surface indiscretely. It can remain at more discrete snorting depth. 


Not a KHI propeller but a 7 blade propeller used for new Kilo submarines.
---

Propellers - KHI also makes propellers. One type is the Kawasaki Controllable Pitch Propeller – Benefits include "low vibration, low noise, high efficiency and excellent cavitation performance. It also makes it easy to control speed and quickly bring a vessel to a standstill without reversing the engine while delivering enhanced manoeuvrability  as well as safety.”

KHI is committed to building submarine components and assembling every second Soryu even though KHI makes no profit in submarines. KHI sees submarines as an important part of doing business with the Japanese Government. KHI realises this is part of the framework within which it can sell more profitable defence products to the Japanese government including surface ships, aircraft, helicopters, rockets, satellites, replacement engines of all types and other equipment. 

The Japanese Government will also appreciate KHI's efforts in helping to make Japan's first major defence sale (to Australia) possible. That is - if Japan is chosen.

Pete