Any decision to build Australian subs overseas unlikely until late 2016

The likely mild nature of Australia's next Tuesday May 12, 2015 Federal Budget will prove an indicator that the Abbott Government wishes to avoid decisions that might alienate voters. Abbott's idea to "Build submarines overseas" will  increasingly become a decision to be delayed.

The Abbott Government originally planned to make a decision in early 2016  on who (Japan, France or Germany) would build Australia's future submarine and where (mainly in Australia or mainly overseas). Early 2016 was the earliest period after the stages of the Competitive Evaluation Process (and see) were completed and also after part publications of the 2015 Defence White Paper and associated Force Structure Review.

It is likely that the Abbott Government will only make a decision AFTER the next Federal Election (likely in late 2016) that the submarines will be built overseas. 

Considerations are:

- The May 12, 2015 Federal Budget [watch this space] is already shaping up to be mild, risk averse and sensitive not to alienate too many of Australia's 16 million voters. This is because the Coalition Government's austere May 2014 Budget made the Government rapidly unpopular with  average voters. If Abbott were to declare a submarine policy that effectively meant that $20 Billion of Australia's declining revenue would be sent to Japan to buy Soryus this would be very unpopular. 

- The next Election by law must be held on or before January 14, 2017. However Governments rarely call elections in December or January as this causes voter resentment (too close to the major holiday period in Australia). An election in the southern hemisphere Spring ie. September, October or November 2016, is more likely.

- South Australian voters will become increasingly sensitive about shipbuilding job losses (or lack of growth) prior car factory job losses fully impacting. South Australian car factories have closed in the last few years including 1,000 job losses from the Mitsubishi factory closure in 2008 and General Motors Holden in South Australia is due to close by late 2017 with 1,600 job losses. 

Abbott would be mindful that a decision to build the submarines overseas might just lose him the 2016 Federal Election. Not only the Navy, workers and unions but many business leaders in Australia’s manufacturing sector prefer “Build in Australia”. Meanwhile, the submarine issue may influence votes definitly in South Australia but also in Victoria and NSW (both are also involved in submarine builds). The Labor Party Opposition's “Build Submarines in Australia” may prove increasingly attractive.

Hence, only after a September 2016 or October 2016 Election, is a definite Federal Government decision on any overseas build likely.

Pete

[Superseded] "Future submarine selection December update expected"

New Japanese Defence Minister Gen [his first name is NOT an abbreviation for "General"] Nakatani. Nakatani intends to introduce a range of conservative (or internationally normal) defence policies to replace Japan's traditional "peace" constitutional defence policies.

[Note the December 15, 2014 article below was superseded on December 21, 2014 by the appointment of new Australian Defence Minister Kevin Andrews. 
 Superseded because a new Defence Minister Andrews (and his new Ministerial office staff) will have insufficient knowledge for perhaps two months to answer media and industry questions about a submarine selection process. 

- Also Japan has experienced political processes recently (the December 14, 2014 Japanese Elections, delaying Japan's Diet sitting schedules and mid December 24, 2014 appointment of new Japanese Defence Minister Nakatani) that will delay Japan's ability to formulate new new defence policies that would inturn backup a Japanese Soryu announcement.

- Also the Australian Government will be on firmer negotiating ground as Australia's Defence White Paper 2015 will be closer to publication - a paper that will partly justify the new submarine aquisition.] 

Brendan Nicholson in The Australian December 15, 2014 expects Prime Minister Abbott to make the future submarine selection update-announcement before Christmas. Full string of the now outdated commentary is http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/tony-abbott-to-surface-with-plan-for-submarines/story-e6frg8yo-1227155893557:

Title "Tony Abbott to surface with plan for submarines"

TONY Abbott is expected to announce within days the start of the process for selecting the navy’s new submarines from a range of international options and for building and maintaining them.

The Australian has been told the Prime Minister’s announcement is likely to include the creation of a new defence industry entity to work with an experienced international submarine designer and builder.

The expected re-election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government with a substantial ­majority will remove a significant hurdle to Japan providing new submarines for Australia.

Japan, Germany, France and Sweden are all keen to provide the submarines. The Japanese are ahead of the others because they have the most experience building conventional submarines large enough to meet Australia’s needs.

The government is developing a three-stage strategy to save the shipbuilding industry, involving buying submarines overseas but maintaining them in Adelaide, completing the navy’s three Air Warfare Destroyers and building eight new frigates in Australia.

While a Japanese submarine has for months been the most likely option, Japanese domestic politics remained an issue.

Defence officials are in discussions with their Japanese counterparts to see whether the submarine technology they have on offer would suit Australia’s ­requirements.

If that deal does go through, Australia is likely to share in the design and building of a new class of submarine that will be an evolution of Japan’s Soryu.

If Australia does buy a Japanese submarine, it will be modified to extend its range and fitted with the same potent combat system and torpedoes as US nuclear-powered attack submarines.

The new submarine is likely to be powered by advanced lithium batteries, which take up less space than lead-acid batteries. More batteries can be carried, which significantly increases the submarine’s range and reduces the time it needs to run on or near the surface while running its diesel engines to recharge the batteries. Modern conventional sub­marines using such systems can stay submerged, without snorkelling, for three weeks." ENDS.

Connect with my own commentary of December 10, 2014 Australian Future Submarine Choices - Need for a Plan B at : http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/australian-future-submarine-choices.html

Pete