Since it was announced in 2021 the
AUKUS Pillar 1 situation has been getting worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Pillar_1_%E2%80%93_Nuclear-powered_submarines
From 2028 [1] US completion
rates will actually decline from 1.1 standard Virginias per year to 0.8 larger
Virginia Block Vs - making availability for the Australian navy even worse. The
US is flat out building Columbia-class SSBNs (the highest USN priority - which
is where Australia's gifted AUKUS $Billions are ending up). The main US effort is
building Columbias until 2042, [2] with sufficient Virginias only
available to send to the Australian navy in the mid 2040s. The UK situation of
only one or no Astutes available at any one time, is even worse, as this bodes ill for
the Astutes' successor, the SSN AUKUS.
Like the Vietnam War that failed,
AUKUS is too big to admit failure - until US withdrawal, or reason, forces
Australia to withdraw.
[1] See USS
Oklahoma and USS Arizona, the first Virginia Block Vs. expected to be
commissioned in 2028. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class
[2] See “All twelve [Columbias] are expected
to be completed by 2042…” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview
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