The Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been little discussed of late drawing suspicions it may be cancelled like many RAN ship and submarine projects. However I consulted the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) website which has recently added more certainty to the LOTE project, budget and all.
See https://www.asa.gov.au/aukus/collins-class-submarines
"...Australia's Collins Class submarine fleet will undergo a life-of-type extension (LOTE) at Osborne shipyard in South Australia.
The LOTE will keep the Collins Class submarine
operationally capable and available into the 2040s, supporting the transition
to Australia's nuclear-powered submarines.
Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion
Timeframe: First LOTE scheduled for mid-2026
Industry: more than 1500 jobs
Location: Osborne South Australia (LOTE) and
Henderson Western Australia (sustainment)"
PETE COMMENT
The estimated range of the Budget: $4.3 - $6.4 billion (Australian dollars) is clearly quite broad.
Some defence commenters, with some accuracy, claim it is best to triple an Australian government defence program budget estimate due to the many uncertainties impacting multi-year projects. Such uncertainties include:
- shortage of skilled shipbuilding labour in the "white" Western world generally (meaning higher wages than intended are required to attract labour). No such shortage exists in Northeast Asian countries.
- higher than expected inflation, which has already hit Australia since January 2023
- project deadlines not met, part caused by:
- the Australian defence industry tendency to add many more upgrade items "bells and whistles" than originally envisaged.
So the new "Rule of Triples" ((you saw it coined here first) in Australian budgeting may mean (with 2 years of LOTEing for each of the 6 Collins = 12 years) by 2038 the budget may well balloon to between A$13 Billion and A$19 Billion.
Some might now say - "well if LOTEing costs that much why don't we buy/build a new class of Interim Conventional Submarines?
To which I counter:
It would take about 3 years (ie. by 2027) for the Australian Government to summon up the support for New Conventional Submarines.
Then 2 years minimum to choose the foreign main contractor (2029).
Then the Build in Osborne Political Reality (ie. no whole sub foreign build) pans out to Signing the Contract (2030).
Then the always slow Osborne build takes 15 years (2045) until first of class is launched.
Then 2 years ironing out working up bugs until Commissioning first of class (2047).
Then each successive submarine in a class of 6 would take around 18 months to build ie. launched in June 2048, Dec 2049, June 2051, Dec 2052 and June 2054).
The kicker is these New Conventional "Interim" Submarine timing realities would directly clash with the SSN-AUKUS timings which may start to be built in Osborne in 2042. Osborne simply wouldn't simultaneously build 2 types of submarines unless in a runup and during World War Three (maybe China and Russia vs Democracies including Australia). But I digress.
So LOTEing makes sense especially if Saab Kockums is involved, in part because Saab did the Mid-Life Upgrade of Sweden's Gotland-class, similar to Collins in significant ways. A new Combat System for the Collins, integrated by Lockheed Martin, may be a high price aspect. New diesels needed, probably MTU 4000s, will also be expensive. Submarines are always expensive.
14 comments:
Last of the 4* 218SG's launched today - RSS Inimitable.
https://www.facebook.com/singaporenavy/posts/pfbid02dmfrcLpWSwuxjQEqTUthqzprnj4WrTzhCJBUhFNqkgD9FeJ3iNHQ1CxGwAQ4BD9Kl
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/04/tkms-launches-the-fourth-invincible-class-type-218sg-submarine-for-singapore/
Thanks retortPouch at 4/23/2024 12:00 AM
The efficiencies of Singapore choosing a foreign (TKMS German) build of the Invincibles is apparent. ie. Singapore contract signing in 2013 to All 4 subs launched by 2024 taking all up ELEVEN YEARS
I inevitably contrast this with the highly politicised local Osborne build for electoral advantage system in Australia.
With Australia signing Attack class contract around 2016 cancelled contract 2021. LOTEing Collins costing 3 to 6 times more than the new Invincibles. No Virginias till 2030s (and they might not be delivered). But probably Australia will need to wait until late 2040s-early 2050s for the first Osborne built SSN-AUKUS to be launched. Add 5 years for 3 more. So for Australia to produce 4 subs since 2016 taking about THIRTY-FIVE YEARS
Regards Pete
Endless journey also in Spain with a project called S-80, whose studies for the definition of the program date back to 1997, we only have the S-81 in the water, and it is not yet known when the four will (hopefully) be sailing
Hi Spanish Anonymous at 4/23/2024 7:48 PM
Yes ever since the parting from what is now Naval Group's Scorpene program Spain has had a difficult time with the S-80s.
I'm also aware the new technology AIP will not be ready for the launches of S-81, S-82 or S-83. Instead the AIP will need to be retrofitted from the late 2020s perhaps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-80_Plus-class_submarine#Propulsion
Only Germany, Sweden and perhaps South Korea have developed efficient AIP - so its a very difficult piece of technology. Australia didn't even try AIP development, fortunately.
Cheers Pete
No doubt fortunately for Australia, with the passage of time the choice for new Lithium battery systems instead of AIP systems seems more effective (at least for certain geographic areas).
Best regards
I agree Anonymous at 4/23/2024 11:20 PM
Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) in 10 years might make AIP redundant for countries with long mission profiles like Australia due to LIBs increasing energy density and increasing safety.
Basically the 100+ tonne Liquid Oxygen (LOX) load in all large AIP systems presents a dead weight for long missions. When/if used it complicates the centre of gravity balance of the sub. When all LOX is used up what remains is a very large ex-LOX tank taking up space instead of higher priority uses eg. vertical launch systems.
The very large Japanese Taigei class SSK is the best sub around that emphasizes LIBs. Australia should monitor the Taigeis and South Korean KSS-IIIs as hedge options against non-delivery of SSNs from the US and UK.
Cheers Pete
Accurate and very interesting as always, brief and great analysis Pete
Best regards
Gotta keep up with China's laser submarines. :)
China Working on Super-Fast Submarines Powered by Lasers:
https://futurism.com/the-byte/china-laser-submarine
Thanks Anonymous at 4/24/2024 10:26 PM
I do me best :)
Cheers Pete
Hi Anonymous at 4/25/2024 5:08 AM
Re "China's laser submarines"
I don't think even the PLA-N has the sense of humour to confect such an April Fool's joke like https://futurism.com/the-byte/china-laser-submarine
"Supercavitation" mentioned in that article exists, for 200 knot torpedoes that is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VA-111_Shkval#Design_and_capabilities
The severe shaking needed to generate cavitation, though, would kill a submarine crew of even the most heroic worker and peasant people's "volunteers"
My other suspicion is that Laser Submarine Drive (LSD, of course) permits Warp Speed, faster than light travel, faster than a fart in a Fujian fan factory.
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete,
Do you have any inkling of what defence considers competitive by 2040s as far as the Collins is concerned. What would you “‘DEEM” MANDATORY” next to the influx of Asian subs by the 40s?????. There is so much that could be done but where do you stop?, or will the Collins be kicked down the road even past the Virginia delivery?.
As most of us know Navy didn’t consider AIP worth embarking on considering the weight and space needed. If we are going down that Lithium route then thats a weight balance factor that will have to be settled up front before even considering whats going back into their hulls. We dont want to jeopardise the addition of another torpedo tube do we.
Hi Lee McCurtayne at 5/01/2024 12:04 PM
If the 6 Collins were LOTEed from 2026 at 2 year intervals the first 2 would probably retire in the 2030s with the remaining 4 existing through to the mid 2040s.
Main items I think worth replacing or upgrading are:
- the 3 x Garden Island-Hedemora DIESELS that have always underperformed and are so unreliable that the RAN had to lower its standards to certify them acceptable. So 3 x MTU 4000 Diesels per sub are essential. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins-class_submarine#Propulsion_system
- strengthening the pressure hulls, as the need for hull cutting to replace/overhaul the deficient Hedemora Diesels has weakened the pressure hulls, reducing safe diving depth.
- maybe new Generators to replace the 3 × Jeumont-Schneider generators
- many combat system items: ie optronic masts, latest technology work stations, new servers
- many worn mechanical moving parts need replacing
- electricals that have water damage need replacing, as they corrode then fuse then catch fire.
I'm not convinced Virginias will ever be delivered as the US will lack enough Virginias even for the USN until about 2044 (after Columbia SSBN production ceases in 2042). The US President in 2032 may decide that the USN has insufficient Virginias.
Even LOTEed Collins will only last till the mid 2040s when their pressure hulls become too metal fatigued.
So Australia may increasing need to rely on AUKUS Pillar 2 generated Ghost Shark XLUUVs from the early 2030s to do everything except firing torpedoes.
Regards Pete
Hi Lee McCurtayne at 5/01/2024 12:22 PM
Yes I think it unlikely that the Collins LoTEing would include AIP.
Unfortunately I don't think Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) can be retrofitted into the Collins during LOTEing. Indeed so many changes would need to made around new weight balance for a new LIBs fitout that it would basically be a new sub.
Also, I think, all the electricals and electronics/computer components in the Collins would need to be replaced to meet the new electrical voltage/charge loads that come with LIBs.
Regards Pete
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