Did Israel throw ROCKS at Iran?

I would like to leave the geo-political issues of the 2024 Israel-Iran confrontation here and here to political experts (I only have a major in international relations). Though my opinion is that Iran has its own perception as a major player in the Middle East, and had to 'demonstrate' its power to strike Israel.

300 Iranian one-way UAVs, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles are a lot. It would overwhelm most unprepared nations, and cause thousands of casualties. 

The Iranians did prewarn the Saudis, Kuwaitis, Jordanians and Iraqis. So Israel, the US and NATO had plenty of warning to set up combat air patrols and pre-position their warships that have SAMs and AAA. We are also not certain which weapons Iran used, and they could have used older weapons that had a higher chance of interception or failure. 

But people were going to be killed - no one, including the IDF, expected Israel's integrated aerospace defense system, in conjunction with allies' fighters and air defense, would stop 99% of the weapons.

Nevatim Airbase (believed to be a storage site for nuclear weapons) is probably one of the better-guarded sites in Israel. So Iran scoring a couple of ballistic missile hits on it is high on Iran's 'achievement' list, not the fact that little damage was caused. The one video of incoming I have seen shows ballistic, unguided munitions, so they may have not been a priority for Israel's Iron Dome or David's Sling SAMs.

I think Iran lucked out - with little damage and no deaths in Israel. Israel could have  responded in a number of ways, from using a remote control machine gun within Iran to assassinate another Iranian nuke scientist, to storm of nuclear-tipped Jericho missiles.

Instead the IDF choose to throw 3 ROCKS at Iran.

The Rafael ROCKS.

Image: Rafael/IDF of a ROCKS test missile - nicely done up in telemetry/unarmed red with black and white checks.
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The ROCKS Autonomous Extended Stand-Off Range Air-to-Surface Missile was first shown at Aero India 2019, and according to its sales brochure, has anti-radiation features and uses an Inertial Navigation System (INS) to work in GPS-denied areas.

ROCKS is likely a variant of Rafael's Sparrow Ballistic target missile, which is a two-stage missile air-launched from an F-15. As this article in the Financial Times shows, spent first-stage boosters were found in Wasit Province, in eastern Iraq, about 560km West of the Isfahan target area, on the night of Israel's retaliation.

image: Rafael of Sparrow target ballistic missiles
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The Financial Times article highlights IDF attacks on Syrian air defence positions. This was followed by Israeli aircraft crossing into Syrian airspace to fire the air-launched ballistic missile(s) at the Isfahan Air Base. 

There were early Iranian reports that it shot down 3 Israeli drones over the Isfahan area. If there were any such drones they were probably coordinated to distract or EW lure Iranian air defenses to mask the real ballistic missile action.

The Times of Israel published an article based on a New York Times report (paywall) that claims Iran did not detect the incoming missile, and it damaged a 30N6E2 Flip Lid target-engagement radar of the S-300PMU2 battery protecting the airbase.

So Israel basically replied to Iran: "Hey, you fired 300 weapons at me, 1% hit and caused minor damage, while I fired 3 or 4 missiles that penetrated your air defences and took out an S-300 radar at your most sensitive airbase/facility. You wanna play a game of missile polo? I have nukes and lots (probably) of conventional Jericho and Popeye Turbo missiles, so u wanna bet on whether Tel Aviv or Tehran ends up the smoking radioactive crater?"

So I hope that we are backing off (again) from nuclear brinkmanship (Pete predicts there will be a second strike on Iran that might precede Israel's invasion of Rafah, in Gaza). But the true winners of this missile ping-pong will be Rafael and Raytheon, who will enjoy massive sales of air defence equipment this year - as countries replenish expanded stock, and to better protect themselves.

Update 15/4/2024 - the Indian Crystal Maze 2

Two days after the IDF strike on Isfahan, Indian media reported that the Indian Air Force successfully test fired a Crystal Maze 2 ALBM from a Su-30 MKI fighter. 

Crystal Maze 2 is an 'Indian-developed' version of the ROCKS, and it is currently unclear if India is procuring this missile for Rafael, or testing an Indian-produced variant. Nevertheless, it is clear that India has noted the use of ROCKS by the IDF and has decided to disclose that India now has the same ALBM capabilities.