Aus Choosing UK Likely: But Within SSN(R) Constraints

In response to Anonymous’s Feb 27, 2023 comment:

You have interesting views, though I suspect you haven't read Submarine Matters articles like "Which AUKUS Country's SSN Design Will Win?" of February 6, 2023 which covers most aspects you comment on. 

You are clearly out of phase with UK nuke submarine building commitments and limitations. The UK building further Astutes or helping Australia do it, after the UK RN's 7th one (Agincourt), is not possible because the UK industrial base (BAE Systems and the RN) is shifting all its very limited nuke submarine design and build resources to the 4 x Dreadnought-class SSBNs for the next 15 years. 

My admittedly rigid views on each of your comments in turn are: 

1/ - The Astute design (jigs and all) is slaved to the rapidly becoming obsolete PWR2 reactor.
- Australia's submarine shipbuilding facilities may well need 20 years to get up to SSN building quality, once UK and US assistance is available. Which is after the 4 x UK Dreadnoughts are built and after the US 12 x Columbia-class SSBNs build phase (whichever is later).
- Australian submariners will not be qualified to majority man SSNs for 15 years at least. 

2/ Australia, if it chooses the UK cannot build Astutes (without UK help which is unavailable until about 2035). The SSN(R), which presumably will have a larger beam/diameter sufficient to fit the PWR3, is really Australia's only UK option. 

3/ The UK PWR3 just happens to be the UK variant of some of the less sensitive US SG9 attributes. Any idea of putting a US reactor into a UK hull:
- cuts across the UK Rolls Royce submarine reactor industry's very existence.
- an AUSTRALIAN ONLY HYBRID SSN, combining a UK hull with a US reactor, is a highly risky engineering, industrial, cost and political proposition. Like the Collins it would be a unique ORPHAN SUBMARINE DESIGN with all the drawbacks that entails.
- US political/industrial interests must be taken into account. There are long held US non-export of complete reactors to the UK legal conventions and pressures.

4/ Yes reactor support from the US is closer and the US does have an efficient SSN decommissioning plan. This is if Australia chooses the US late model Virginia/SSN(X). I assess this to be a 30% possibility. While I assess that Australia choosing the UK SSN(R) hull with the PWR3 is a 60% possibility.

Regards Pete