As the Daily Mail is not a newspaper of public record, I'll believe the following if/when officially announced. Might it pan out to be one Astute part time given the lack of permanent SSN facilities at Fleet Base West?
Reported by UK's Daily Mail on July 22, 2022:
"Britain
is to send a fleet of nuclear submarines to the Pacific in a decisive move to
thwart Chinese aggression in the region.
The
dramatic decision could see UK subs based in Australia until 2040, operating
within striking distance of China.
Admiral
Sir Tony Radakin, the head of [UK] Armed Forces, will agree the arrangement at a naval conference in
Sydney [week beginning July 25, 2022]. Assigning submarines to patrol the
South China Sea will be Britain’s most assertive move yet against Beijing.
According to reports in Australia, Royal Navy submarines would be based at [Fleet Base West, Rockingham] on the country’s western coast and Australian submariners would be incorporated into British crews to improve their skills.
…The Royal
Navy declined to say last night how many of its submarines could be relocated
to Australia, as all operational details surrounding Britain’s sub-surface
fleet are classified.
…Last night the MoD said: ‘It is UK policy that we do not comment on matters relating to submarine activity or operations.’…”
7 comments:
Thanks Pete, interesting. We shall soon see if the report is accurate, though I don't know what naval conference is on in Sydney next week? I note in the Daily Mail report they do ask UK MoD, who make no comment, nor any denial.
The obvious question if this is true is how and when could it be achieved. the RN has retired its Trafalgar Class boats now, so it is down to 5 Astutes now. It won't have 7 SSNs again till 2026. That is not a large SSN force to spare one to station in Perth.
One issue that may be relevant is the potential for mutual benefit in terms of crew recruiting shortfalls. The RN has had nearly as much trouble as the RAN in recruiting and retaining SSN crews in recent years. A year in Perth might be quite attractive to a UK crew, just as new RAN recruits filling any vacancies might be attractive to the RN, and make an interesting gap year in UK for Australian submariner recruits.
https://www.thedrum.com/news/2021/10/14/surfacing-new-recruits-the-royal-navy-s-secretive-submarine-service
Pete
More credibly, there was a question asked in UK House of Commons about Australian sailors being trained to run UK sub reactors.
This was not denied, and is an extension of previous shared working arrangements for RN and RAN crews.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2022-07-05.HL1514.h&s=%22Royal+Navy%22+section%3Awrans#gHL1514.q0
Thanks Anonymous at Jul 24, 2022, 11:21:00 AM for https://www.thedrum.com/news/2021/10/14/surfacing-new-recruits-the-royal-navy-s-secretive-submarine-service regarding the slick UK RN submariner recruiting campaign
and
Anonymous at Jul 24, 2022, 12:37:00 PM for
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2022-07-05.HL1514.h&s=%22Royal+Navy%22+section%3Awrans#gHL1514.q0 about statements in the UK House of Lords revealing:
"The Royal Navy (RN) routinely provides training to foreign Nationals through International Defence Training arrangements. Under the AUKUS arrangements, this now includes the attendance of Australian personnel on RN Nuclear Propulsion training courses. The operation of RN nuclear submarine propulsion plants by Australian personnel remains subject to further enabling work."
I'd be surprised if the UK RN or MoD says an Astute would be based in Aus within 3 years. More like part time basing of one after all 7 Astutes are commissioned after 2027.
And yes, the UK RN has its own lack of submariners, suggesting few could be spared in WA for more than 2 months a year the other side of the world from the UK.
If the RAN could make a 100 RAN submariners available for RN training and deployment in UK SSNs and maybe SSBNs this may usefully set the stage for Aus SSN(R)s designed early (with Aus cash incentives) in the 2030s. Building in Adelaide could then hopefully commence in the mid 2030s.
Elsewhere I've read that much of the reactor training in the UK is now down with UK land based simulators. Meaning the building of Australian West and East coast simulators should be viable as no actual land based reactors are required.
Regards Pete
Pete
Thanks. Interesting regarding the simulator training and yes I share your view on dispatching RAN sailors to UK for training. I would think for many young people this sort of learning experience could be sold as an opportunity to attract bright recruits.
Recruiting is a challenge but not insurmountable. The accommodation and crew comforts on SSNs are much better than SSKs. I note the RN has permitted some BBC dramas to be shot on actual RN SSNs as a way of attracting interest and promoting SSN service to a wider audience. The ADF should consider getting the ABC to broadcast them.
Finally speaking of public attitudes to SSNs I should mention the results of the Lowy Institute annual survey of Australian attitudes to public and foreign affairs just published. This was done in March and there is a lot of interesting data on changing attitudes to security following the Ukraine War. There are big shifts in attitudes to defence spending, China and Russia especially.
70% of Australians now support the RAN building SSNs, 87% of LNP voters and 65% of ALP voters. (Finland joined NATO on lower support than that.)
Only 36% of Australians now support Australia having nuclear weapons. This is a rise from the 16% reported in the 2010 poll.
https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2022/
Perhaps a good time to resurrect the dual crew concept to make maximum use of a single hull. Two crews for Australia based Astutes, each made up of U.K. and Australian personnel…
Hi Anonymous [at Jul 24, 2022, 9:36:00 PM]
Yes the simulator training reference is at https://lynceans.org/all-posts/marine-nuclear-power-1939-2018/ then click on "Marine Nuclear Power 1939 – 2018_Part 4_Europe & Canada" and you'll see a large PDF unwrap - at page 19 the UK's "Vulcan Naval Reactor Test
Establishment (NRTE)" you'll see:
"* Provide a realistic environment for training Naval personnel to operate reactor systems (training now accomplished on simulators)."
Especially Aus SSK submariners (from other ranks to officers) of future 2030 vintage might be ideal SSN training candidates. Their UK side training won't require square bashing and they would have already acquired their Aus Dolphins.
Later on SSN training can be done by mixed Aus/UK training staff at Fleet Base West.
Those March 2022 Lowy Institute annual survey stats you cite from https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2022/ are even higher than I'd expected:
"70% of Australians now support the RAN building SSNs, 87% of LNP voters and 65% of ALP voters.
An increase from 16% in 2010 to 36% in 2022 of Australians supporting Aus nuclear weapons is more than I expected.
Specifically from https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2022/
"Half the population (51%) say Australia should increase defence spending, a 20-point increase since 2019. Seven in ten Australians (70%) are ‘strongly’ or ‘somewhat’ in favour of Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, while 28% say they are against the acquisition.
A third (36%) say they are strongly or somewhat in favour of ‘Australia acquiring nuclear weapons in the future’, while 63% are either somewhat or strongly against the acquisition of nuclear weapons."
Clearly the higher the perceived threat from China the further into nuclear (subs and weapons) the Australian public are prepared to go. With the way China's acting/talking I'd say by 2030 a majority of Australians will be in favour of Aus nuclear weapons.
Cheers Pete
Hi Anonymous [at Jul 25, 2022, 10:54:00 AM]
Indeed dual crews, specifically for Aus SSNs should allow the Aus aquisition to drop from 8 to a more reasonable 6. Aus SSN-1 could have a mixed Aus-UK crew. I suspect the RAN has always expected such a drop to 6 Aus SSNs.
This would make sense in the context of the Aus nominal GDP https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) compared to:
- the UK which will have 7 SSNs, and
- France to have 6 Barracuda SSNs.
What with the China threat being alarming after 2035
also 4 Aus Dreadnought-class SSBNs after 2035 would also make sense and would balance the Aus SSN mix appropriately...
Cheers Pete
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