Australia's AuManufacturing, April 7, 2022 reports:
"PATRICK ATTACKS SUBS CONSTRUCTION BACKFLIP"
Independent Senator [for Adelaide dominated, South Australia] Rex Patrick has criticised an apparent backflip by the federal government in their
plans to build nuclear powered submarines in Adelaide.
According to a report in
The Australian [current] Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that the nuclear submarines
being acquired by Australia under the Aukus pact may be imported.
Morrison said that the
need to have a submarine deterrent quickly trumped any need to favour local
construction.
Senator Patrick, a former submariner, took to social media to criticise the backflip."
Pete Comment
Given submarine building in Adelaide has been a sacred right since time immemorial (well, since the late 1970s) Morrison raising the issue of building the submarines overseas can only be seen as a pre-Election wedge tactic - to embugger the Opposition.
It was Submarine Matters that first raised the potential of nuclear submarines to drive a political wedge between Australia's main Opposition Greens and Labor parties and more damaging between the pro-nuke sub and anti-nuclear wings of Labor.
Morrison and his henchman/rival Peter Dutton (together they are "Mutton") have to date been frustrated that Labor has used the "small target" bi-partisan tactic of passively agreeing with the Morrison government's nuclear sub policy.
Mutton, by naming 3 east-coast nuclear sub base possibilities, attempted, with limited success, in inducing the Labor wings to argue. But my hero, Labor leader Anthony "Albo" Albanese managed to hose down the most loathsome inter-wing disagreements.
Now Mutton's extra-ordinary statement that the nuke subs might be built overseas, where there are no Australian voters, can be seen as a gamble to extract comments from Albanese and the pro-nuke subs wing that "nuclear subs should be built in Adelaide".
Mutton then hopes that "Nuclear NIMBY (NN)" elements of the Labor movement will then contradict Albo's sound, manly and dare I say, fair, pro-nuclear sentiments.
Mutton is banking on tame reporters asking every Labor person in sight whether they agree/disagree that Australia's future nuclear subs should be built overseas.
Whether Mutton succeeds the ensuing weeks, up to the May Election, will tell.
8 comments:
Pete
Alas I don't have it.
I am also a bit troubled to read this in the Australian today, suggesting an LNP walkback of any local build promise.
"Scott Morrison has left the door open to Australia’s $100bn-plus nuclear submarines being built offshore, saying the “paramount goal” is not to build them in Adelaide but “to ensure we get that capability as soon as we can”. In his joint AUKUS announcement with US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson last September, the Prime Minister declared “we intend to build these sub - marines in Adelaide”. But he declined on Tuesday to guarantee the submarines – apart from their nuclear reactors – would be built in Adelaide. “We’re working through all of those issues,” he said. “And that is certainly our intention to maximise all of that. Of course it is. “But it’s also the paramount goal to ensure we get that capability as soon as we can, and it’s in the best form that it can be working with our partners.” The statement is the first by the Prime Minister that contemplates the prospect of the submarines, or some of them, being substantially built outside Adelaide to ensure they arrive faster."
https://todayspaper.theaustralian.com.au/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&pubid=d5f86309-c928-4e0e-b526-b143f04dbd26
Don't they recall the whole point of Sea 1000 was not to save money or create jobs, but to ensure adequate local capability to sustain and maintain RAN submarines through their life? It would be ironic in the extreme if Labor wound up more likely to build SSNs for the RAN than the LNP. I'm nervous.
I also found nothing in Budget Paper No.2 to show funding of the needed upgrade works for ASC to allow construction of an SSN to start.
Hi Pete, unrelated to the topic but it's been an eventful few weeks for India-Australia relations.
The biggest news was probably the signing of a Free Trade Agreement (called Economic Cooperation & Trade Agreement or ECTA. "Ecta/Ekta" meaning Unity in the Hindi language), while usually deals like this would be solely relegated to issues of trade & economy, this FTA also has a Strategic tinge to it - as summarized in some detail here in this Financial Express article by Harsh V. Pant, VP of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India's premier strategic think-tank:
https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/a-strategic-compass-guides-the-india-australia-trade-deal/2485064/
In addition, there have also been several MoUs signed for the setting up of Critical Mineral supply chains (especially Lithium), where Australia is a huge supplier of the materials and India has a growing requirement. I'd imagine these deals are following up on the coattails of objectives set by the QUAD summit last September.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-australia-to-collaborate-in-lithium-and-cobalt-identification-projects-11648565694486.html
And lost among so many other headlines was the news that India & Australia will be starting a Defence Officer Exchange Program. While I wouldn't have bothered to mention such small initiatives, I thought it prudent to do so because the program is being named after the late CDS Gen. Bipin Rawat, who found mention on your site on multiple occasions.
https://twitter.com/AusHCIndia/status/1511944824357736452
+++
And recently, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has obtained another satellite image of the SBC dockyard at Vizag, showing the new "S4" SSBN (and its size difference compared to the earlier Arihant-class boats) in more obvious clarity than ever before:
https://ibb.co/42J12Jh
Close-up:
https://ibb.co/kgdmJBs
Original source article:
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2022/01/assessing-indias-nascent-nuclear-triad
Cheers
Hi Anonymous
I think Morrison could have only floated a completely overseas build if his election bean counters have predicted the Coalition will definitely LOSE in the submarine building State of South Australia. This is in the upcoming May 2022 Federal Election, of course.
Perhaps Morrison is attempting a "We need subs quicker and cheaper" pitch that will appeal to the other States and Territories of Australia.
Just between you and I Anonymous (and don't tell a soul) I think Morrison has the right idea.
If we want SSNs before China takes over the whole neighbourhood [1] we need SSNs off the UK or US assembly lines fast, without Adelaide adding its well known magic.
By [1] I mean China taking over Southeast Asian nations (particularly already half bought Cambodia and leasing Clark Air Base and Subic Bay from the Philippines
and islands groups surrounding Australia: Cocos/Keeling, East Timor, PNG, Solomons (naturally), Vanuatu and Fiji.
If Australian SSNs carry the AUKUS Program dual-warhead-capable hypersonic missiles, then we'll have the beginnings of a deterrent that will "impress" China.
Regards Pete
Let’s hope the Astute has enough torpedo tubes for Defence, we wouldn’t wNt to blow out the cost of customisation would we. Don’t worry we will probably cancel anyway, it’s far cheaper, isn’t it.
Thanks Gessler [at Apr 8, 2022, 11:49:00 PM]
I'll turn your info into an article later this week.
Meanwhile I have visitors today through to Wednesday.
And Morrison has just called the Federal Election to occur May 21, 2022. I'll be observing closely any Australian Electoral utterances on Submarines.
Regards Pete
Hi Lee McCurtayne
The Astutes have 6 torpedo tubes with stowage for up to 38 weapons. So that should be enough for Australia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine#Weapons_and_systems
Here's hoping Adelaide doesn't get involved in any otherwise faster, cheaper UK or US assembly line build. This is noting the aft, more expensive half of an "Australian" SSN would almost certainly be built in the UK or US.
Unfortunately Build-in-Adelaide is Labor policy...or is it?
Regards Pete
Pete
In any argument the extreme views are often unwise. In this case I think the “must build here” and “must build elsewhere” views are both flawed.
A balanced view would probably be to build the first couple of boats entirely overseas where possible, while starting Adelaide production when possible. Even then, the reactor compartments would have to be built overseas for an “ASC” (local) build. I’m comfortable with that. But people must understand that in order to get to having adequate domestic SSN sustainment capability, we will need to end up building at least some of the SSNs here. And the sooner the better.
In that regard, I see no reason other than bureaucratic inertia why a local and overseas build cannot progress at the same time. Assuming the first 2 boats were built in UK or USA, and might take, say, eight years to complete, this should not stop Australian production being started at the same time. The local build will almost certainly take longer, at least for the first boat, say 12 years. Then the RAN might get the first two boats around 2032-34, and following locally built SSNs from 2035 on.
I am finding those who say a locally built boat will not be completed till 2040 to be overly pessimistic. It is usually (1) not based on any engineering assessment of the task and (2) lacking any detailed program to explain why such a long timeframe is required.
To answer one of your other questions, since the SA State election the new Labor Premier, Malinauskus, has made it clear he wants local sub construction to proceed. I would say now that, politically, local SSN construction is more likely with a Labor Federal government than Liberal.
We shall see over coming weeks!
OT, just incase it disappeared among all the news regarding the invasion of Ukraine, but I'm sure that you already have seen that the news that the Thai order of submarines from China has run into major problems, since Germany refuses to sell MTU submarine diesels to China.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3169959/thailands-chinese-submarine-order-hits-snag-after-germanys
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/engine-troubles-bring-sink-or-swim-moment-for-thailands-sub-deal-with-china/
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thailand-s-purchase-of-first-Chinese-submarine-runs-aground
/C
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