Just to let Donors know that I've sent you the Report "Advantages of Australia's Future SSNs".
It includes the paragraphs:
Most of the matters discussed above will not be officially published by the Australian Government. A tension is inevitable concerning the extent Australian SSNs will participate in protecting or destroying nuclear submarines – as such functions have been restricted to nuclear weapons powers.
If Australia’s current conservative government wins the next election, which must be held by May 2022, then the Australian SSN project will likely survive. If a left-leaning Labor-Greens coalition (currently leading in the polls) wins then Australia’s SSN aspirations will likely die off.
Pete
3 comments:
Hi Pete
I support Australia’s SSN plan which contributes to the future Indo-Pacific Alliance as well as Australia to prevent from China’s new colonialism.
Regards
The opposition have already said they will support the deal, so long as it doesn’t mean a local nuclear industry (aside from the existing Lucas Heights reactor). The only party against is the Greens. I doubt, when it comes to forming government, the Greens won’t decide to settle for environmental ministries where they can do something over no power at all.
Pete
Why do you think Labor will kill off the SSN project? Labor decides everything on a factional basis. The dominant right faction, dating back to Rudd and before him Beasley, have been in favour of Defense spending as long as it involved local building and employment. (Defense spending actually fell under Howard.) With Labor holding the SA seats that stand to get jobs out of the SSN construction, I think it will be very difficult for them to back out of an SSN deal that delivered local jobs. The only risk I see with Labor in power is if the Greens hold the balance of power. But then Labor could pass the SSN spend with the coalition, which has happened before. (I.e. Lib and Labor have at times both joined forces to block the Greens or independents.)
For this reason, the key factor will be for Defense to pick an option that is primarily locally built, presumably on a modular basis, with the reactor module imported. Given BAE’s presence in Adelaide, that would lend itself to a modified Astute build, with BAE and Rolls Royce in UK supplying the reactor compartment and Lockheed Martin locally fitting the combat system. Attempts to buy US built Virginias with limited Aussie content would risk the program. So would attempts to launch domestic nuclear power, which I agree Labor and Greens are both ideologically opposed to.
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