It goes without saying that since 1971 the US has gone out
of its way to remove any status Taiwan had to being an ally to be protected by the
US. For the US China, after all, is given preference as much more import
politically and more significant, economically.
So, in terms
of a timeline:
1971 the UN removed Taiwan's status as
a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council giving
that status to China. At the same time Taiwan was expelled from the UN
altogether.
also in 1971 Kissinger fundamentally
changes US foreign policy towards China by secretly travelling to China to meet
its leaders. Kissinger realised that China and the Soviets were not a
monolithic bloc. The USSR could be, and was, isolated by the US and China
enjoying closer relations.
1972 this was followed by Nixon openly
travelling to China to cement relations.
January 1, 1979 the US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. So the US Embassy was moved from Taipei to Beijing
later in 1979 Taiwan Relations Act of US Congress indicated the US would not necessarily defend Taiwan. Any defense is given strategic ambiguity. Instead "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities". A weapon digression - for example this would appear to rule out the US organizing remote human triggered, or undersea sensor automatically triggered, land attack missiles to hit Chinese territory.
Although a second example USS Jimmy Carter and/or Orca
XLUUVs pre-laying sensors-mine networks in waters some distance from Chinese
naval bases, with such networks activated in time of war, in order to destroy
Chinese submarines and surface vessels, may be a different matter.
A digression the USS Jimmy Carter follows a proud British tradition more than 100 years old. This specifically was in 1918 when a German submarine (UB-116) attempting to enter the UK Royal Navy Grand Fleet anchorage at Scapa Flow, was picked up by hydrophone and magnetic anomaly sensors that were interlaced with minefields. The British efficiently triggered mines around the submarine sinking it. All this has been written at Submarine Matters for alert scholars - see The long tradition of fixed ASW sensor and destruction arrays, dated April 4, 2016.
January 1,
1980 - returning to Taiwan. The US terminated its Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan that had been in force since 1955.
1980 All
important US-China trade begins to rise sharply.
US-China relations fluctuate and may not always be bad. The US and China
might return to closer relations that may again isolate Russia.
The US did not want to go to world war in 1953 when US and Chinese
troops were actually fighting each other in Korea. The US would have even more
to lose going to world war over Taiwan, because the Chinese military are much
more powerful. Also China has nuclear weapons – all making China a potential “peer adversary”.
2021 - As Japan altered its tradional Defence White Paper wording, in 2021, now indicating "stabilizing the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan’s security and the stability of the international community,”. Japan should seriously increase its defense budget to match its new thoughts and make improved precursors towards nuclear weapons. This could be along the lines South Korea is already doing - with South Korea's new 3,000+ tonne "KSS-3" submarine mounting 6 vertical launch cruise or ballistic missile silos. Later subs will have 10 silos.
Conclusion
So all the above indicates - however much some assume the US government might or should go to war with China over Taiwan, this is not grounded in US laws or policy.
6 comments:
Colour me cynical, however, is it not always true that 'pet causes' get sold down the river as soon as is convenient? (nearly all the time!)
The chinese are unfortunately rather good at patient long game play and seem to rather possess elephantine memories as regards past 'slights' (actual and perceived)
Taiwan has been a major source of insult and irritation ever since US ships sailed the straits near taiwan in a show of menacing strength in 1958.
Now, to everyone's chagrin and outright horror, the PLA, PLAN and PLAAF are like that Gaulish Village of Asterix/Obelix and are getting filled up with the military equivalent of 'magic potion'.
I am afraid it is indeed a matter of few years before Taiwan finds itself up sh*t creek without a paddle. As the US enters an 'self isolation' period...I am afraid it is only a matter of time before all bets are off...
PS: No wonder the Chinese are occupying more land in India asking India to go back to the borders of 1842 (even that is always inching westward into India)....they have big chips on both shoulders and massive axes to grind with too many people...
Hi Ghalib Kabir
"Colour [you] cynical" I think it honest and accurate to be cynical, in this crazy mixed up world.
BTW I wonder the extent the Taliban will keep Afghanistan accessible to Covid vaccination teams? Suchs teams would need to be especially brave and only escorted female nurses (with bullet proof vests?) need apply.
I agree China bears grudges badly and often is its own worst enemy - recurringly purging millions now and then.
China's gradual salami slicing of Indian territory is difficult to bring to the notice of Western journalists at the best of times. Few Western citizens or interests at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes . Instead Afghanistan remain THE story.
Biden may well take time to recover from the Afghanistan debacle and also the US needs to mend its internal defences against the Delta strain.
All making it a nervous time to be Taiwanese.
Pete
The China India border problem is not so straightforward and is a textbook case of what miscommunication can wreck
1. China and India have tedious claims over most of the Aksai China area and the upper reaches of Arunachal Pradesh. The problem is the Qing Empire decided circa 1720 to incorporate once and for all the Tibetans, Uighurs etc into China. Proper 18 provinces of China is what comprised China in 1644.
2. The Manchus/Qing/Aisin Gioro fellows went about systematically reclaiming older territories and taking new ones. The wiping out of the Dzungar Khanate and the setting of vague borders near Rutog in Tibet and even vaguer borders in what is Arunachal today between 1820 and 1914 is the crux of the issue.
3. The British as part of the great game drew at least 3 and as much as 6 lines incl. the famous Johnson-Ardagh line in the Akai Chin Ladakh region and the last McMahon line in the Arunachal area of NE India by 1914. The NE India line neatly divided China and India along the water ridges and was sensible, though the Chinese and the tibetans vociferously protested the yanking off of Qing era boundary markers in the Upper reaches of the Arunchal or what was called the NEFA region. What can be reasonably accepted is that Hindu kingdoms did exist in the lower reaches of Arunachal
4. FF to 1954-1957, the Chinese moved into Aksai Chin to build a highway to annex Xinjiang once more under CCP rule. Oddly the Constituent Assembly of India map in 1947 and official maps till 1954 left the borders unmarked there as India was unsure what line to use.
5. Premier Zhou of China in the more than 4 dozen letters to Nehru offered to accept Indian claims in the Arunachal region in exchange for most of Aksai Chin. Nehru was confused and vacillating. Ultimately offended at Chinese occupying the lands near Ladakh, he ill advisedly moved in a poorly equipped army into a face off... sadly the Sino-Soviet split occured at the same time and the perceived tilt and Mao's paranoia caused the Chinese to overrun both Arunachal and Aksai Chin, with the Ladakh claim lines shifting from 1956 to 1960 to now....Nehru could have gracefully given up what was never Indian lands in the extremes of Ladakh and basically negotiated a 1956 line based deal with Zhou.
6. The chinese were no less stupid, they misread Indian intentions and how their changing stance would appear to Delhi and kept pushing and keep pushing maximalist claims. Now the element of geopolitics and the perceived power gap has made Xi even more idiotically intransigent. He gets token parcels in central LAC and NE India and concedes few 100 sq km in Ladakh, he will make India a near permanent good intentioned neighbor. silliness all over.
Bottomline: The chinese don't want Indian land, they want the border boiling to keep India off kilter through repeated punches. Congress's Manmohan and BJP's Modi showing spine since 2012 is what caused Xi to order the latest intrusions. they want a kowtow from India.
Thanks Ghalib Kabir
For the complex history of Sino-Indo conflict over the Ladakh.
Yes it would be uneconomical for China to invade that area given Indian force's resistance. No Tibetan pushover.
So very plausable "The Chinese don't want Indian land, they want the border boiling to keep India off kilter through repeated punches."
These Chinese activities may also raise nearby? Pakistan assurance that China can put the sqeeze on India in any future Indo-Pak conflict.
Pete
Not really, that is the thing, it is complicated. overall china dislikes india..lets be clear on that point.
China wants pakistan to be a nuisance on India:s western borders and keep India in check...
On the other hand, India and China are cooperative in many other forums such as the ones on climate change...plus unlike the perennial bowl bearing beggars of the pakistani ruling establishment, India pays greenbacks for goods and runs a huge 55-60 billion dollars trade deficit with china...as i said...complicated...
China gives weapons to pakistan for nuisance value. But they have no patience for pakistani adventurism or terrorism. In 1999, the chinses were the ones who tipped off India via America about the kargil intrusions by Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif had to finally accept defeat when the chinese asked pakistan to go back to their side of the LoC in Kashmir.
A 2 front war is frequently talked about...however, despite very bad mutual hostility with china, oddly enough the pakistani army chief apparently conveyed to india they gonna be cool on this side of the LoC...life is indeed weird occasionally..
also pakistan is now is serious financial trouble yet again for the umpteenth time... the risk this time being, three generations of raising religious fanatics has rendered pakistan an intellectual graveyard....as the arabs disdainfully note from time to time..pakistan is only good as a bird hunting ground, source of cheap unskilled labour and women for arabs to 'marry' and 'discard' once they get bored. (look up the term 'miskeen'...pakistanis are called miskeen/misqeen by the arabs....a humiliating term)
to be labelled as a bordello for arabs is not a good thing I suppose..also you might notice that arab men 100% prevent pakistani/afghan/any SE Asian muslim from marrying arab women. so much for equality.
Hi Ghalib Kabir
Have no fear, I understand and have experienced the many layers of complexity in international relations, especially with and between "Great" and "Super" powers.
If schadenfreude provides it may be China's turn to be embroiled in the full "blessings" of handling power vacuums in Afghanistan. China's proximity to Afg and China's rightly unhappy Muslim minority, may be a handful for the "communist" royals of Beijing.
Then again China has a lot of internal and external experience suppressing and promoting guerilla warfare. China may, unfortunately, be too shrewd to become Afg embroiled.
China also doesn't need to appeal to its publics' opinion in the way democracies do.
China is also used to playing the Long Game, rather than "scoring" within a 4 year Presidential term (reduced to just a 2 or 3 yr PM term in Australia).
Russia may feel the Taliban "blessing" as well, again.
Of course the Afg-Taliban harbouring well financed AQ and IS terrorism schools is a, or the, main worry for Aus, the US and probably also India.
Post a Comment