India's NDTV, August 30, 2020 reports [Not surprisingly!]:
"India Pulls Out Of Russia Military Exercise With China, Pak [Allegedly] Over Covid
"India Pulls Out Of Russia Military Exercise With China, Pak [Allegedly] Over Covid
India was invited by Russia to participate in the tri-services exercise with a contingent of around 200 personnel to southern Russia in September for the multi-lateral Kavkaz-2020.
New Delhi: India will not send its contingent to the multinational military exercise Kavkaz-2020, being organised in Russia, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, [India's] Defence Ministry said [August 30, 2020].
"Russia and India are privileged strategic partners. At Russia's invitation, India has been participating in many international events. However, due to COVID-19 and consequent difficulties in exercise, India has decided not to send a contingent this year to Kavkaz-2020," the [Indian] Defence Ministry spokesperson said.
Indian troops with AK-100 assault rifles? India has many similar rifles - see Indian Army small arms.
---
Both China and Pakistan are going to be a part of the multinational exercise.
News agency ANI, quoting sources in the Defence Ministry, said that China's participation in the exercise was also a reason for India to pull out of the multilateral tri-services military exercise. They say while India is locked in a military conflict with the Chinese in eastern Ladakh and on high alert all along the 4,000 kilometre Line of Actual Control (LAC), it cannot be business as usual for us to be participating in multilateral military exercises with them.
India and China had clashed in the Galwan valley on June 15 in which 20 Indian troops had lost their lives while the Chinese also suffered a number of casualties with scores of Chinese soldiers killed and injured there.
Sources added that Defence Minister would be visiting Russia on September 4-6 for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation [SCO at which India is a member since 2017] defence ministers' meeting but it is unlikely that the Indian representative would be holding any talks with his Chinese counterpart..."
49 comments:
250,000 pla troops on the border and 1,000 sq.km of Indian land directly or indirectly occupied with clashes reported on August 30 implies there is no point in 'joint exercises'...
The brazenness with which china has made demands to shift the border into India should make every neighbor of china even more apprehensive.. this is worse than hitler and sudentenland in 1938. that china has the brass to dress it up as 'reasonable' is nauseatingly gob smacking.
china thinks with some justification that it has cornered India right and proper. while true in the short run... it is very likely to turn out to be a short sighted and stupid decision in the long term. shifting claim lines 4 times in 60 years does not help with anything and being known known as the 'bullying neighboorhood tool' does their standing no good either.
Hi ghalibkabir [September 1, 2020 at 1:16 PM]
Looks like as China's army increases in quality and tail to teeth China's territorial demands increase.
India might also need to review its own participation in that other joint body - the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
I don't know whether BRICS has any HQ Secretariat and if so, is a Secretariat or other multinational structure an opportunity for China's MSS to recruit Indian agents who return to Delhi?
Pete
The Chinese can end this very easily by a simple act of good will. Go back a token 2-3 kms from pre-April 4, 2020 positions and ask that to be converted into the IB instead of LAC. At one stroke such an offer would
1. Act as a significant soothener for the 1962 losses suffered by India while leaving China a net gainer of 40,000 sq.km land (45,000 if the trans-karakoram tract is also factored in)
2. Allow China to accept smaller land parcels in Uttarakhand state and a token small parcel in the far east Arunachal state to settle the border issue once and for all
Unfortunately, the chess board is now tied strategically to the larger Chinese plan of boxing in India and hence the LAC is a very useful tactical tool to beat India with.
(Nehru's lapse of judgement is coming to bite India very badly even 60 years later)
The problem with such hard edged belligerence is, however well thought out and the chinese top are extremely talented, constant state of conflict with many nations might very highly likely induce a serious lapse at one point or the other...this may 15-20-25 years away but unless china can show some magnanimity to its neighbours, its reign as a superpower might be only a few decades long, brutal and end badly for everybody.
PS: That said, it was foolish of Modi and co to not have used satellites and other intelligence inputs to put in mountain corps on the frontier earlier than April. This will likely end with some territory loss. Might be worth the loss if an IB can get fixed finally.
BRICS is largely irrelevant. The Russians, South Africans are in near permanent economic coma, Brazil and India are sick for a while now and China is now at the level of the US. It doesn't belong in this ICU of economic sick men.
India followed by Brazil are likely to return to growth by 2022 once the vaccines are available. I am not sure Russia and South Africa can come out of their troubles even after Covid goes away.
Hi ghalibkabir [your September 2, 2020 at 6:24 PM]
I can't claim to be on top of China-India territorial trading.
Re your "PS" On Modi's alleged intelligence failure. Perhaps Modi doesn't admit he is traking Chinese movements/intentions because he prefers to defacto concede territory to a now militarally superior China?
Pete
Hi ghalibkabir [your September 2, 2020 at 6:45 PM]
Yep I haven't heard anything significant coming out to the artificial BRICS alphabet soup for years.
Russia seems to be doing poorly due to low prices/revenue for its gas/oil during the Covid customer slowdown. But post-Covid customer demand will pick up hence revenue to Russia (for its military etc). Though the declining Russian population growth is a constant economic downer.
Meanwhile China's military spending is such a high national objective (as it was for the Soviets 1945-1990) that India has alot to worry about.
In terms of competitive boxing-in China + Pak are far more powerful and steadier than any arrangement India can work out with Russia.
Russia would prefer to sell hydrocarbons and weapons to China AND India while not being a true ally of either.
Pete
On the contrary one of the triggers for this flare up is that since 2016 India has resisted China's efforts to salami slice territory and during Doklam 2017 china felt India was not paying due respect to the new superpower. When Indian troops broke and dismantled chinese watch towers in Depsang plains and followed by Ladakh becoming an union territory under Delhi, the die was cast.
Modi's foolishness stems from the fact that similar to Nehru's bungling he did not deploy Mountain corps quickly enough and even when signals from SIGINT satellites were clear by Feb March, he likely responded slower than he should have and misjudged china's intent. Depsang plains near Karakoram is the key, if we lose the rumored 500-700 sq km land there, it will be a blow. One hopes like 2013 eventually china's ego gets satisfied and they go back...
the trouble is, it doesn't look that as of today. They seem hell bent on provoking India into breaking the 1996 agreement on firing within 2 kms of the LAC by repeated incursions and feints.Considering deception and cheating is considered as legit tools in china's policy circles, it was unbearably foolish to not have sent up 2 or 3 more SAR, ELINT and IMINT sats besides rushing the acquisition of MQ-9 drones
Pakistan is not a worry even if comboed with China. China by itself is the biggest issue. Their 'lackey' is viewed with derision as a panhandler and bawd for the arabs and chinese. Not a great reputation. Thanks to their recent bungle the saudis are mighty pissed with them thereby ensuring pakistan has lost a great benefactor in terms of 'Alms'.
They don't realise China has already dammed source rivers of the Indus and can divert them in the mid 21st century if glaciers retreat and it needs water. These fools are meanwhile stoned on delusions of grandeur and busy riding an unicorn over the rainbow.
India I think will finally up its defense spending to 2.5-3% of GDP.
The pink flamingo (not black swan) here being china's perpetually belligerent stance has the potential to cause a judgmental error that can cut china's rein as a superpower to a few decades.Instead of using their strength to make small concessions to their neighbors in the short run and gaining big in the long run, they have gone back to the Yuan/ming/Qing era foolishness of acting like egregiously incorrigible neighborhood bullies. this won't end well for any one.
PS: BRICS was always just a goldman sachs fancy acronym meant for preening politicians.
BRICS, just like G20 and G7, is just a pow vow photo op for leaders of the world, a pure waste of tax payer money, which COVID19 derails.
China is unlikely to back down. Did they not run a war game scenario with wars on 3 fronts simultaneously with India, Japan and Vietnam? History always repeat itself with humans. And back in the Middle Ages and Renaissance periods, the Middle Empire never played nice with its "barbarian neighbors", who are supposed to kowtow to their Celestial Emperor.
KQN
Hi KQN
Feelings in Australia that it has poor trade relations with China are minor compared to the strengthening strategic threat China has against its neighbors (or close by):
ie. India, Japan, South Korea, Nepal, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
Pete
Pete,
I agree. China's ever strengthening threats against its neighbors and other regional nations, its lone wolf diplomacy tactics are indeed worrisome. They seem to reflect the "take all" mindset of CCP's Politburo leaders. And they sure dwarf any benefits to be derived from trade. Besides, it is exceedingly rare to find a nation on this earth that has a positive balance sheet in its trade with China.
KQN
Hi ghalibkabir [September 3, 2020 at 12:23 PM]
Looking from the peak civilian leader Preime Minister (PM) [Nehru now Modi] vantage point is one way.
But Indian PMs, like Aussie PMs, also act on the advice of their military commanders and defence ministers. Both the later 2 groups would be increasingly aware that the Chinese military is growing quickly in power and increasingly prepared to break rules/agreements. Xi is so personaly powerful that he's prepared to take risks with his military.
Australia can fall back on still superior US power but unfortunately India cannot.
I think Indian civilian and military leaders don't want to be seen to be acting too hastily and even then losing to China.
Pete
Hi ghalibkabir [September 3, 2020 at 12:35 PM]
I'm unsure whether the old Pakistan-Saudi deals are still active, that:
- a battalion or more Pak troops are quietly situated in Saudi Arabia to protect the monarchy, and
- the part Saudi-financed Pak nuclear weapons program still means Pak would send nuclear warheads to the Saudis if there were a Iranian nuclear threat to the Saudis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabia#Pakistan's_involvement
OR
As China has supplied the Saudis with CSS-5 IRBMs, is China now the new nuclear warhead supplier for the Saudis, not Pakistan any more?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Saudi_Arabia#Missile_capability
Pete
Hi KQN [your September 4, 2020 at 11:02]
Perhaps the only good things about Trump is he is prepared to stand up to:
- China's setting the trade-Chinese currency goalposts in China's favor
AND
- China's rapidly threatening military posture against all countries in "China's region" except Russia (Russia being too far ahead in nuclear weapons compared to China). The US is notably doubling carrier groups in the region (at least in the runup to the November 3rd election)
On the other hand Trump's threats to withdraw US troops from that most front line of countries, South Korea, is cause for deep regional democracy concern.
Pete
The point is Modi took reasonable steps (not sufficient though), but the point is China's CCP has a politics first DNA and hence India/West's assumption that economic interlinks would reduce belligerence was and is fundamentally flawed. The 'take all' mantra of today's CCP elite thinks that china's pride rests on permanent subjugation of its neighbors/rivals. So even an imagined transgression elicits hysterical threats and frequent violence. Imagine a well built but very insecure 16 year old girl holding an M-134 gun and you know china.
Xi is applying this 'purge and control' mentality to Modi now, using the border as an excuse to both humiliate India and cut Modi down to size. It is a periodic madness every chairman of the CCP suffers from. Mao had this in 1959 and 1967, Deng had it 1986-87. It is in some ways visible with the extremists like the Salafis 'control or be controlled', 'vanquish or vanish' type thinking...
sadly, episodic manic schizophrenia in a super power's leader is extremely hard on neighbors.How do you assuage someone who cannot accept the basic fact that 'his neighbor does not deserve to lose face too'. this won't end well for any one in the long run...
Pete @ September 5, 2020 at 6:34 PM
The CIA allegedly facilitated the transfer of CSS-3 and CSS-5 in 2007 to Saudia under the condition they were modified to 'conventional only' mode. I assume the pakistani arsenal is still available on call though with Israeli ties blooming, I don't consider the concept of an 'unspoken' Israel backed, US guaranteed nuclear umbrella taking shape against Iran, Turkey and pakistan (if they are stupid enough like today) 'outlandish' any more.
In any case, if oil demand gets another blow in the form of serious single use plastic reduction, then the middle east will have a basic survival problem on their hands in 15-20 years time. history is starting to rhyme as the 2020s could resemble the 1930s.
PS: pakistan is the classic case of 'biting the hand that feeds it' example vs the Sauds.
Hi GhalibKabir [your September 7, 2020 at 3:48 PM]
I wonder if this latest China fighting with India, is to:
- distract China's citizens from Xi's/CCP's failure to tackle Wuhan Covid quickly enough
- distract citizens from the Covid's consequent economic damage to China. Any terratorial advances by China may ultimately be good for China's economy, and
- stoke Chinese fear/nationalism against old "enemy" India
Yes Xi's power is unlimited in China as there's no democracy or other balances. So Xi has advantages over Modi.
Pete
Hi again GhalibKabir [your September 7, 2020 at 3:55 PM]
Yes way back in 2007 - see https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2012/08/saudi-ballistic-missiles-nuclear.html - I've wondered how Chinese IRBMs for Saudi Arabia passed the US Middle East dominance test.
But I reason that as Saudi's oil power meant the US couldn't stop the deals and the US couldn't supply missiles itself (Israel sensitivities...) then the US (via CIA) making the Chinese IRBMs notionally 'conventional only' mode might pass some public/US Congressional opposition.
Of course wiring could be modified back to dual-use and the US would have been aware of the Saudi money for Pak nuke warheads (shipped to Saudis in an emergency) exchange deal.
Israel may be satisfied (or have sufficient intel warning set up) that any (former Pak) Saudi nuclear warheads would be safely aimed at Iran (or Shiite Iraq) and not at Israel.
And of course there is the US nuclear umbrella and Israel's nuclear Triad.
Pete
Pete@September 7, 2020 at 6:17 PM
The problem is there is no safe distance in the middle east. Even a 45 kT warhead could cause enough radiation contaminated sand to spread across the middle east to South Asia (Balochistan/Sindh) if winds are bad enough not to mention a place like Tehran will likely see close to 0.5 million dead immediately.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
PS: Basically Xi thinks Modi is acting up due to US backing (nonsense, considering Modi has been literally paying obeisance to Xi) and feels offended that he had the temerity to dismantle PLA watch towers in 2016. Plus India murmuring about arch proliferator china blocking India's entry into the NSG has not gone down well either. The salami slice shallow thrust into Ladakh is part of a larger message to Modi that 'there cannot be two tigers in the mountain'. They won't back down easily now. Xi is as bad as Mao but much richer/crazier
Hi GhalibKabir
Thanks. https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ is a nasty but interesting site.
Those same valid "no safe distance" arguments also apply to any nuclear threats to N Korea blowing over to China.
All suggesting even low yield nukes (with an escalation expectation) is no good for limited or ongoing war.
I don't know enough about Xi vs Modi on Ladakh to comment.
Regards
Pete
Pete@September 9, 2020 at 7:19 PM
I think the concept of a 'tactical battlefield' nuke is an oxymoron if there was ever one. There is nothing called a 'tactical nuke'. Even a 5 kT backpack N bomb similar to W54 being used will ensure in any battle that larger nukes will be employed in retaliation.
When I asked my pakistani acquaintances
'what if an armored Indian division cut into the West Punjab between the heavily populated cities of Kasur and Lahore? Will the tactic of setting off tactical bursts over Indian columns near the heaviest populated region in Pakistan be still valid?'
The answer is no. In any realistic scenario, usage of the smallest nuke will elicit bigger response on multiple military installations that will with 100% certainty soon expand to indiscriminate strikes on population centers. There will be no 'climbing the escalation rungs one by one when poppycock hits the fan'. Even if 1/5th of Indian and Pakistani N-bombs get used, the whole world will plunge into nuclear winter for a few years. it will be 1816 on a much grander scale, with indescribable levels of death and destruction.
PS: Similarly, when I hear trump inanely yapping about low yield warheads on tomahawks in SSNs, I wonder if people really understand the extent of lunacy they are indulging in whilst blithely discussing nuclear exchanges.
PPS: On Xi vs Modi, sadly I do know a bit and it is horrible to see the disaster scenario unfold as was feared since 2016...neither can lose face now unless they talk and make compromises that china in particular has been adamantly unwilling to make till date.
Hi GhalibKabir
I agree the smaller, less defended and less command/controlled a 'tactical battlefield' nuke is the less mobile it is, greater the chance of capture and greater the risk (especially backpack nuke) that the operator will unilaterally explode it. It would be a particular problem for "safely Islamic" tactical nuke operators willing to suicide-bomb on a "grand" scale.
And yes the unassessable chances of "would you use" "how/when would you escalate" are much vaguer, less central commanded/controlled than "should we send x-number of IRBM warheads to Beijing/Islamabad/Delhi?"
Also would a large ally, like Russia or the US simply sit back over the issue "Should India send Nuclear Winter Causing Warheads to China or Pak?"
__________________________________________________________
On Xi I'm hoping his unlimited leadership for life in China doesn't go to his head (like a Hitler) causing him to mass-scale militarily take on a regional power or superpower (India, Japan, US or China's not to be forgotten neighbour Russia).
On Russia - if nukes used between China and Russia is unthinkable-impractical then would this tempt Xi (too many Chinese needing land) to exert Conventional military superiority over Russia (all that empty barely used land just to the north of China).
Russia has even more valuable land to the east of China in the Khabarovsk-to-Vladivostok Russian "Triangle" for China to salami slice.
Pete
Hi GhalibKabir
Here's an unexpected comment on the China vs India border confrontation.
https://www.news18.com/news/india/xi-planning-another-brutal-purge-after-chinas-flop-incursion-bid-against-india-warns-report-2874197.html of Sept 13, 2020
"Xi Planning Another 'Brutal Purge' After China's 'Flop' Incursion Bid Against India, Warns Report"
"Describing Xi Jinping as the "architect" of recent aggressive moves against India, a leading US magazine has reported that the Chinese President has risked his future with the high-profile incursions into Indian territory that unexpectedly flopped" in the face of ferocious fightback by the Indian Army.
Xi, 67, already roiling the Communist Party with a "rectification" campaign and mass persecution of foes, will launch "another brutal purge" following the Chinese army's failures on the Indian border, the Newsweek said in an opinion piece..."
your comment @September 14, 2020 at 2:19 PM
This could be one of the issues at work internally. By the way, the incursions are not a 'flop'. territory loss at 2 critical points near the border is a reality with nearly 1,000 sq km gone.
If china's mouthpiece global times sounds racist and hate filled, Indian media can be equally asinine and outright moronic. A regular boof head will stand no chance against them. One earnestly wishes Indian media could take a vow of silence for a while.
On the border itself, External objective seems clear, put India in its 'place'(as I mentioned this is a regular manic episode occurring in every CPC chairman's tenure). Also the 70th year celebrations of China just finished and communist party 100 years is coming up, Xi won't let up anytime soon.
Internal objectives of changing PLA ranks to help Xi better could be also an idea (though I think it is not so realistic or more likely a distant secondary objective)
In any case India is slated to continue as the anvil for a decade or two at least (for the CCP hammer that is)
Hi GhalibKabir
your comment @September 14, 2020 at 3:40 PM
Yes, it looks like a bit of gray propaganda via "Newsweek" alleging China's latest border aggression was a "'flop'".
Might this "humiliation?" for India spur a concerted building/buying effort by India. Those 75(I) SSKs, fullscale SSBNs, SSNs, 100 modern jetfighters and 2 medium-large carriers all need building to keep up with China.
Australia has had recent success building LHDs and Air Warfare Destoyers but we may have insufficient crew to man them. Should we sell some or more to India? As at least India has enough men to crew them?
___________________________________
Back to China's alleged "flop" Putin and Xi are also old hands at propaganda - as propaganda is an officially accepted strategy/tactic in these Communist Heritage, now Capitalist Oligarchies, that they personally rule.
A free press not toeing his own Personal Line even irritates Herr Trumpf.
At least Xi doesn't have family members as nepotistic, official taxpayer funded major advisers (ie. Ivanka and Jared) or does Xi?
Cheers
Pete
Some targeted capability beef up is certain to happen. One hopes longer range passive sensors in fighters, border monitoring drones/sensors, EA-18s form part of the same at a very minimum. (my granny used to say, a cat trying to imitate an elephant in pooping quantity will just have exploded intestines and die, so intelligently countering china will be needed vs matching carrier for carrier or awacs for awacs)
The Balakot skirmish of 2019 with pakistan and the current stand off have proven beyond reproach that India's Su-30 MKIs and other Russian aircraft have a fatal weakness in terms of BVRAAM capability and overall electronics (basic stuff like MAWS, SDR sets missing).
Acquisition of SDRs recently and The Rafale with the Spectra and Meteor is a start, but IAF will need 3 squadrons of EA-18s at a minimum and more capability on the lines of KJ-500 type aircraft if China has to be made to think twice (like pakistan to India, India need not 'win', deterring PRC beyond a threshold will suffice)
And in terms of missiles, the hypersonic scramjet missile, Ashwin Area defense SAM, Shaurya missile need to be inducted/beefed up as soon as possible in addition to the Brahmos present now (all with OTH capability, else it will be less capable). One hopes the 3 layer networked integration of 25 km Akash, 90 km Barak 8 and Ashwin/S-400 LRSAM occurs soon along with ECCM additions, else china will still think it can win with minimal bleeding.
PS: SSNs will suffer, as funds are not there, so will carrier 3 INS Vishal.. likely wont get built any time soon.
Hi GhalibKabir [your September 15, 2020 at 7:26 PM]
India enhancing the weapons and sensors on its current air, land and sea platforms sounds quicker/more practical/cheaper than buying whole new platforms to take on China and Pak.
I'm unsure whether the US would be willing to supply "EA-18s" (assuming you mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_EA-18G_Growler ) to India given risk of tech transfer to Russia air/radar personnel. ie Russians who supply Su-30s, MIG-29s and especially https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#India to India
But a middleman Intel exchange dynamic may make EA-18s more available? Russian tech finding its way to Uncle?
Australia is finding EA-18s an essential accompaniment to F-35A so EA-18s for India within the Quadrilateral seems fair given India is much more likely to need EA-18s in foreseeable warfare than Aus.
Capabilities of China's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaanxi_KJ-500 "AWACs" is interesting - assume Israel, Russia and China's own collecting has enhancements in it.
Russia's key position in supplying Yakhont-BrahMos tech to India and S-400 etc to both China and India gives the Russians alot of leverage to trigger and profit from an India vs China Arms Race.
Yes, on SSNs INS Chakra II, another leased Akula and the gradual Indian digital modelling of an enhanced Akula-like SSN seems more likely than a US/Soviet Cold War-like big money new SSN revolution.
Maybe India would be better off with medium sized F-35B carriers built in conjuction with UK than going the ski-jump then CATOBAR route?
Pete
Actually, the UK route is very appealing to me considering the harakiri that Brexit has turned out to be,
1. India could get the Prince of Wales carrier on lease whilst asking BAE to build another in place of INS Vishal/even jointly build (I think talks failed here IIRC) and mount E-2D, F-35B based air wings..meandering construction schedules are something we can ill afford.
(The Russians getting tech through backdoor is old tish-tosh that is not valid anymore. I think considering Boeing is already pushing 57 F-18 sales for IN fleet plus COMCASA in place, I see no reason the US should dither over supplying 36-54 (3-4 squadrons) EA-18s in addition (initially from USN stock or excess defense articles). A possible deal could be in excess of 100 F-18s alone. I would put EA-18s and additional EL/2090 based AWACS as the primary necessity in Ladakh considering after every talk the chinese army builds new military fortifications.)
2. Additionally, the BAE Barrow in Furness production line could be kept warm by producing an Astute class SSN sans the sensors and reactor fuel. Sensors could be part Indian and partly from Israel/France. The PWR fuel can be easily supplied from South Indian Enrichment plants while TKMS/Rafael/Thales could be asked to provide combat suites, towed active sonar and passive sonars along with Indian electronics. sigh! wishes wishes...
Money is certainly a problem, but thanks to chinese bullying, the problems need solving in any case.
PS: the KJ-500 and the KJ-600 'Hawkeye' owe quite a bit to ex-USSR scientists, Israeli 'help' in the 1990s supported by unfettered internet based espionage/filching of designs from the pla chengdu IT ops base. Currently India has too few EL/2090, P-8s and locally built AEWC... to deter the PLAAF. omniously, the chinese have placed radars, equipment in the pakistani punjab and illegally occupied pakistani part of kashmir...
Hi GhalibKabir [at September 17, 2020 at 4:19 PM]
If UK takes a bad Brexit hit (less cash to pay for RN) then UK may revisit "mothballing" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Prince_of_Wales_(R09) . Leasing to India instead may be an earner especially if tied to India building one or two carriers.
Australia has also seen possible advantage with the UK's Brexit with Aus/UK agreeing to build Type 26 "Hunter class" Frigates in Adelaide. It would pay for India to watch UK's performance in that deal closely.
I didn't think "Liz II" carriers could take E-2D (large advanced Hawkeyes). Instead Brits are going for helicopter "AWACs" aren't they.
On behalf of Aus I'll put in an order for 6 x Astutes in 2040. This is assuming the Barracuda SSNs never make the grade.
Maybe more politically uncomplicated Israeli AEWC/AWACs might be best. Cash and carry, shorter lead times. As long as Israel doesn't sell same or better aircraft and/or sensors
to China.
Well, the logic at work for INS Vishal is, it is based on having EMALS or in the worst case a steam catapult making it like a bigger Charles DeGaulle (allowing for E-2D, F-18s/F-35s possibly instead of Rafales in the case of India).
If the Prince of Wales is indeed leased then MH-60R for ASW, modified MH-60R with the Crowsnest for AEW besides either ski jump capable F-18s or F-35 VTOL could also provide a good deterrent force. I do read occasionally about nascent plans for under water UUVs, armed or with sonars. Also, it is possible the IAI Harpy is also used in limited numbers as a loitering low end munition.
(I assume SSN, Towed VDS mounted destroyers, frigates will form part of the CBG to provide under water protection)
PS: Personally, the ELTA 2052 AESA bearing crowsnest is a good intermediate solution and the Indian forces use the 2052 as their base AESA radar in the upgraded Jaguars, Tejas jets. the other passive sensors, if good, should make it a good package
Hi GhalibKabir [at September 21, 2020 at 9:16 PM]
Overall I think it unfortunate that India's main technical carrier (+ air group) assistance has come from Russia. Russia has never fought a fleet action with carriers and Russia's most reecent Non-carrier action was in 1905 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tsushima .
One hopes the US has worked out all the bugs with EMALS and that the US will pass on this hard won, expensive knowledge to India. Yes going all US with E-2Ds, F-18s and F-35(Bs and/or Cs) may be popular with US if the US sees it as the event that will draw India out of the Russian weapons orbit. Though I don't think india will renounce the advantages of non-alignment.
Singapore is also getting into the surface ship multi-platform for UUV, UAVs https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/07/singapores-future-multi-role-combat.html and also upscaling to larger platforms - see https://euro-sd.com/2020/02/news/15887/the-singapore-f-35-jmms-story/
"The initial F-35B order is for 12 aeroplanes and falls in line with the RSAF long-term plans to retire their F-16 fleet and the closure of Paya Lebar Air Base (some aircraft will be transferred to Tengah and Changi) by 2030. The RSAF took deliveries of its F-16C/D Block 52 aircraft in 2003 under the Peace Calvin IV programme.
There is also strong evidence to support the belief that Singapore’s plans to build 14,000-tonne helicopter carriers (dubbed the Joint Multi-Mission Ship or JMMS) are actually a cover to build a F-35 carrier modelled after the Japanese version."
Re "Tejas" I'm assuming that it continues to live because so much Gold and Reputation has been sunk into this 1970s concept https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_Tejas#Development . This justifies continuing updates of a 3rd Generation platform at a time India might better expend resources at 5th Gen.
Cheers
Pete
@Pete September 22, 2020 at 2:18 PM
India learnt carrier ops from the Royal Navy as it operated the ex-HMS Hercules and Hermes from 1961 to 2017 before the INS Vikramaditya or ex-Gorshkov was inducted. Plus it had live experience in 1971 war ops. and in many other smaller ops. So the IN has nearly 60 years hands on carrier ops experience. the problem is money to build and maintain 3 carriers.
India might not come out of the Russian orbit fully as US is not fully trusted still. So for very sensitive stuff, either Israel, France or Russia might continue support. That said, only the US can reliably fill in gaps such as marine AEW, ASW, drones or fifth gen fighter jets for the next 10-15 years. Loosening of Russian ties is unavoidable to a certain extent though the US will not support India as regards SSNs or marine nuclear propulsion.
Tejas could still be a good platform as the low RCS will make it useful in a hostile sensor thick airspace.They are finally integrating the ELTA 2052, MAWS, IRST etc., it should be good in bulk number as a ~4th gen fighter.
PS: Not surprised regional navies are trying to improve. A single Renhai 55 alone has more firepower than the ships of many regional navies. A single type 55 = 2.5 Kolkata class destroyers in terms of firepower. with 8 of them being available soon, the 55s alone will have 1,000 VLS between them. Add in type 52s with 64 VLS and Type 54s with 32-40 VLS... we are potentially talking 3,500 VLS plus in all... an overkill by any yardstick
Hi GhalibKabir
@September 22, 2020 at 3:37 PM
There is no doubting India's more useful experience with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Viraat (ex-HMS Hercules). Its just that the ex-Russian/Ukranian INS Vikramaditya with years of expensive Indian refurbishment represents a step backward from INS Viraat, in my view.
Mutual distrust between US and India in the most sensitive weapon matters is undertandable. The US has a record of holding up arms transfers at times.
The US hasn't demonstrably supported Australia or Canada as regards SSNs or marine nuclear propulsion - only supporting the UK.
Hoping that China sees its Type 055 destroyer/cruiser as an anti-US measure to be kept in the Pacific and not for entering Indian Ocean.
China very much (unfortunately) sees one CBG backed by SSNs, large surface ships and dozens of UUVs as a permanent presence in the Indian Ocean. The fifth CBG when complete will be part of what I think is a western Indian ocean fleet including Type-55s
https://amti.csis.org/chinas-reach-grown-island-chains/ -- AU and NZ are in the third chain
The Vikramaditya is a generational jump over UK carriers by any yardstick. ASW Operations of Ka-31, MH-60Rs, the presence of the ELTA 2248 radar to guide the MRSAM Barak-8 etc. makes it a formidable carrier. The problem only being need for intensive maintenance on the MiG-29s and associated crappy electronics/missiles. We could have gotten the Israelis to do the 'Sniper' upgrade on the IN MiG-29s with the 2052 radar, 8222 jammer and I-Derby BVRAAM
(they should be doing it with the Su-30s too, adding the ELTA radar and Indo-Israeli BVRAAM like the I-Derby or the Astra). In fact had the Indian MiG-21s even sported the Israeli lancer upgrade, Balakot would have seen pakistan lose more aircraft.
https://www.flightglobal.com/aerostar/dasa-fly-first-mig-29-sniper-upgrade/32108.article
Hi GhalibKabir said...
@September 25, 2020 at 3:09 PM
With 34 comments on this thread, you and I have broken the SubMatt's record! :)
So Chinese Carrier Battle Groups (CBGs) will emulate the USN in becoming long range power projections into the Indian Ocean.
I'm assuming a "fifth CBG" will have at its center an EMALs Type 003 carrier rather than a STOBAR "ski-jump" Type 002 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Shandong ) with J-15s
So the Type 003 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_003_aircraft_carrier will be 20,000 tons heavier (at 85 to 95,000 tons full load) with 40 stealthy J-31s and/or and J-20s, 7(?) propeller driven fixed wing and 10(?) rotary wing.
These island chains on the map at https://amti.csis.org/chinas-reach-grown-island-chains/ are a worry - especially "AU and NZ are in the third chain" and Sri Lanka to Pakistan in a fourth chain.
India might find itself even more surrounded by Sino-Pak with only India's nuclear weapons keeping China at bay. A closer Indian alliance with the US or Russia being appropriate?
Pete
ha ha yes, replies and replies have gone to 36 comments with this one.
Already in a way India already facing the fourth island chain strategy's beginnings. The upcoming base at Gwadar, the radar installations in North punjab, the ELF communications base at Turbat in Balochistan etc. all are being used by china along with very sophisticated IMINT, ELINT and SIGINT resources (already being used in cyberwarfare attacks on Indian IMINT sats and SIGINT resources). the pakistanis playing the role of servile useful idiots to perfection.
Once chinese Myanmar naval base and the Thailand canal plan goes through, it will be almost like chess castle situation for India surrounded by hostile pieces. the US has also chosen the worst possible time to self destruct by electing an entire army of arsonists to act as 'fireies'...the chinese are emboldened enough to not back down to the US.
India's response through dozens of air defense radar installations, armed drones, planned UUV deployments and steady launches of ELINT/SIGINT sats will now be inevitable...china will be relentless in a way no other hostile power has been before. They have been 'tools' on a global scale before and have form/experience on their side in being unpleasant, uncivilized bullies (unless their nose can be visibly bloodied, then an uneasy truce results till they find the next weakness, behavior not unlike a pack of wild dogs)
Hi GhalibKabir
I'll reply to your @September 28, 2020 at 2:36 PM this afternoon.
Meantime Rick Joe, for The Diplomat (paysite) September 29, 2020 has written an excellent article at https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/003-and-more-an-update-on-chinas-aircraft-carriers/
on
"003 and More: An Update on China’s Aircraft Carriers
Over the past year, disparate elements of the Chinese Navy’s carrier development program have continued to progress and come together..."
Hi GhalibKabir
@September 28, 2020 at 2:36 PM
Has India ever entertained the idea of joining and therefore revitalising a rather quiet regional arrangement, like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Power_Defence_Arrangements (FPDA)?
Or should the Quadilateral extend to a much more intensive regional bases and electronic intelligence network?
Yes, for even more discounted Made in China platforms for Thailand the Thai canal (aka Kra Canal or Kra Isthmus Canal) may make more rapid progress than expected https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Canal . China has proven how quickly it can shift dirt with the SCS island bases.
For "India's response through dozens of air defense radar installations, armed drones, planned UUV deployments and steady launches of ELINT/SIGINT sats" India will need to build (and actually complete) strike and helicopter carrier groups at a much faster rate.
Maybe more shared base facilities or Indian anchorages in Vietnam and the Philippinese may put more heat on China?
Regards
Pete
The fight between India and China is still land based and likely to stay so in the future.
I do not know about helicopter carriers, but it will need 2 carriers and a decent enough strike group or two soon. Also, more easily doable is to refit DDGs with more VLS to ensure at least a 64 to 80 VLS load out with AEGIS added if possible. Plus MIRVing the K-4,K-5 and Agni-V should come at equal priority. All these are doable with the current budget constraints rather than laying down heli carriers or any other fanciful asset.
I think the Quad will have some success in terms of intelligence exchange incl. ELINT/SIGINT and the SOSUS/IUSS in the SCS and Indian Ocean. regional bases or open alliance is not so promising and is only likely if multiple threats emanate from china at the same time. the chinese ain't stupid, so the quad will remain a thing of glorified exercise for the foreseeable future.
Hi GhalibKabir [your September 29, 2020 at 8:31 PM]
Re: "regional bases or open alliance is not so promising"
as coincidence has it The EurAsian Times, October 5, 2020, reports https://eurasiantimes.com/how-india-could-be-operating-its-rafales-su-30-mkis-from-strategic-us-military-base-of-diego-garcia/
"India Could Soon Be Operating Its Rafales, Sukhois From Strategic US Military Bases Including Diego Garcia?"
"...The Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) signed in 2016, between Washington and New Delhi, gives reciprocal access to each other’s naval bases for refuelling and logistical support.
It also includes port calls, joint exercises, training and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief. Therefore, India gets similar access to US bases in Djibouti, Diego Garcia, Guam and Subic Bay."
Regards
Hi GhalibKabir
Looks like China used the recent border skirmishing with India not only for land-air command and control practice but for air-drop logistics practice.
See https://eurasiantimes.com/china-airdrops-paratroopers-armoured-vehicles-near-border-can-modi-xi-diffuse-tensions-at-brics-summit/ of October 6th, 2020:
"...According to earlier reports by China Military on August 26th, multiples pieces of heavy equipment which included 107mm multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRLs), Type-03 crawler-type paratrooper vehicles and armoured vehicles were airdropped by the Y-20 aircraft which has a maximum take-off weight of 200 tons..."
Regards
Pete
1. India's MKIs and for that matter all Russian jets need to be totally rewired with a combo of Indian-Israeli French electronics such as AESA, MAWS, missiles like the Python ER BVRAAM to act as potent platforms. Diego Garcia could be a start, but end of the day, India will have to fend for itself.
2. The integrated combat brigade drop practice was an aim of china even before the Ladakh incursions. They have been itching to try out their new gizmos.
India cannot match them but has used Chinooks and Antonovs, C-17s to airdrop M-777s, bring in T-90 tanks and 214 mm MBRLs. The tanks went in into ladakh by September 2019. I am assuming slowly more details are coming out as the Government of India defo i guess knew more than it is letting on.
PS: A bigger concern is that the chinese have helped the pakistanis to build long range artillery capable of carrying small nuclear warheads in the 'chicken neck' area of the kashmir west punjab border. India is finally responding with the longer ranged prahaar rockets that can target PLA and PA bases in salvos in relative safety...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prahaar_(missile)#/media/File:Prahaar_Missile.jpg
Hi GhalibKabir
Thanks for your October 8, 2020 at 1:46 PM
Replacing my near ignorance of Indo-Sino border conditions with a bit of knowledge.
I'm sure Russian technical advisors would love to assist in the intergration of Israeli-French electronics into Russian designed/built fighters.
India could also assist the US in the drive to retain Diego Garcia air-naval Base from Mauritian (possibly China assisted) claims.
2. I was unaware Russian T-90s could operate in mountainous-snow conditions? China is tailor-making light-medium tanks for such harsh conditions.
The escalation in MBRL size, long range artillery capable of carrying small nuclear warheads and dual capable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prahaar_(missile) SRBMs is a dangerous cocktail of nuclear ambiguity. A shame if WWIII began over relatively barren mountain passes.
Regards
Pete
India's T-90 engines are liquid cooled and if i understand correctly, the diesel engines are optimized to run on lower oxygen levels like in Ladakh/Aksai Chin. The Chinese Type-15 is a light tank that lacks armored protection like the T-90MS and is aircooled engine powered, making it more dependent on thicker air (one reason why China wishes to deploy swarms of UCAVs). Their Y-20 (similar to C-17) can carry 2 Type 15s rather than one Type 99
The Chinese have also deployed their Type-81 122 mm MBRL similar to India's BM-21s and also deployed PHL-03s, India's equivalent being the 052 Smerch 300 mm MBRL supported by the locally made 214 mm MBRL (Sagem has helped to make these prev. unguided rockets a bit more useful)
PS: This conflict has forced India to deploy the 650 km range subsonic Nirbhay LACM, extended range Brahmos (290 to 450-500 km range boosted thanks to MTCR), quickened deployment of the 1,000 km range hypersonic missile Shaurya, increased production of the 155-45 Bofors derivative etc.besides 150 km range area defense SAMs being deployed too.
I don't think this is what anyone wanted...china's insults served as the trigger.
Hi GhlaibKabir said...
@October 9, 2020
Thanks for the tank details. I wonder if the Chinese will extend their Start A Small War To Test Their Military to tank vs tank or Indian tank vs Chinese UCAVs actions?
Maybe the Chinese plan an anti-India war as a testing stage before any anti-US/Taiwan war?
All those Indian upgrades to missiles (in your PS:) will prove beneficial for actions or deterrence against Pak, as well.
Regards
Pete
I don't know frankly the answer to that. India is far bigger than Taiwan and I don't think even china wants things to go bad to a point where the relationship becomes like post 1962.
It is now tied to this larger picture of making neighbouring countries at least 'soft kowtow' and be not a hurdle in beijing's path. china's long term contempt for India and what it sees as 'too big for its boots' attitude by India makes china very skittish. Plus India is on record opposing the crippling debt inducing BRI projects...
the stance from china indicates they are setting a lot in store by their networked-integrated warfare approach.India is steadily trying to make up somewhat through Israeli Harops, Harpy, Herons, US MQ-9 and rushing the locally made Ghatak drone. Finally the SIGINT, ELINT sats needs are also getting a serious look besides 4G fiber cables based communications in Kashmir to at least keep up with the rapid 5G infra build up by china.
The missiles should help and it helps that china treats any 'technology' India has as 'junk' and repeatedly makes disparaging statements. The series of tests of SEAD/DEAD missiles/bombs, LACMs, etc. by the DRDO is partly due to inspiration from such goading. I hope china keeps the insults up, Indians always progress when insulted in such fashion....
Hi GhalibKabir [your October 13, 2020 at 6:51 PM]
Looks like Choina is embarking on a peace offensive throughout Southeast Asia https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3104916/china-starts-diplomatic-drive-win-over-southeast-asian although the trade sanction stick is always there.
Hoping India's Almost Allies, including Australia, gives moral and defence support to India, against the China menace.
Regards
Pete
Pete@October 14, 2020 at 11:04 PM
these mendacious cretins are simply trying to make a fait accompli of their SCS land and resource grab. By using their classic technique of take 10 miles and offer to give back 6 miles as a 'gesture of magnanimity' & an implied threat to keep all 10 if offer is refused.
almost all the time chinese 'good will' = a bloody nose (with medicines as a sop)
starting with their 'cross my heart and hop to die' promises of only keeping weather stations & lighthouses in the SCS 'islets' (what we got was CJ-10, HQ-9 and H-6 bases instead), it has been an unbroken chain of the most deplorable behavior imaginable.
these uncivilized bullies are incapable of even basic goodwill or integrity for that matter
China's military rise toward broad military conflict need not be inevitable.
I wonder if China could improve by Fall Of The Wall liberalism. True democracy.
The increase in higher education (especially of Chinese students studying OUTSIDE CHINA) hopefully will cause greater questioning of One Party, Beijing Executive directed, fake "worker-peasant" Maoism.
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