Good news is that collective polls indicate Biden is 6.9% ahead.
_____________
Bad news is that Rusmussen Reports (a very accurate pollster in 2016) now indicates:
"Trump Takes First Lead Wednesday, September 16, 2020
President Trump has now edged to a one-point lead over Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. While statistically insignificant, it’s the first time Trump has been ahead.
The new national telephone and online survey finds the president with a 47% to 46% lead over Biden among Likely U.S. Voters. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided..."
PETE COMMENT
"Undecided" is always a critical, but
unpredicatable, element in polling.
I'd say, after early optimism (that Trump would lose) Trump Winning is now a 50/50 proposition.
7 comments:
I have said this since March 2020, Corona or No Corona, economic shambles or not, trump's base will crawl over rusted nails, broken glass and sharp stones to come cast their votes.
There is a significant % of 'Silent' trump voters that will make itself heard nearer to election day. They are totally committed to their agenda now and won't back down.
Unless younger people, minorities etc can set aside their meaningless idealistic squabbles and vote 100% turnout level in each county, trump will win. As of today, he is the odds on favorite as 46% supposed vote for him easily hides 5-10% hidden trump voters falsely claiming to be Biden supporters or disinterested independents.
People forget too easily that the US never really stopped being an 'apartheid' state, not after 1865 and certainly not after 1965. The churches and gop grass root level work since 1968 has now spectacularly paid off since 2000. they won't let go of their 'minority rules' biased system any time soon. The pontificating nitwits on the left will have to fight hard.
Biden's literate supporters are akin to 'herding cats' while the right wing 'flock of sheep' (aptly named as they are docile and can be fleeced/slaughtered at will) will vote as a near monolith, anyone trusting 'poll of opinion polls' after 2016 is being a drongo.
The Union won the 1865 war and the confederacy has decisively won the peace (& culture war)
The winner of the 2020 election will not be known for a couple weeks after as the Dems will not let poor old Joe concede "until every vote is counted". There's a possibility that the House could declare Biden the winner, the Senate declares for Trump, and there are terrible riots in all major cities, and even the implementation of the Insurrection Act [Martial Law].
I fear the winner of the election will be chaos and a hopelessly divided nation :-(
Hi GhalibKabir
But think of the youthful Biden, with his birthday on November 20 he'll be only 78 at inauguration.
At 80 he'll be sailing clear-headed through the Presidency (a relaxing job with the whole "free" world relying on him).
Sure the Japanese can appoint a well prepared PM in DAYS
but it takes YEARS
for a country with such a decisive political system to appoint someone so OLD with such POWER who is sure to die in office with such certainty.
That he'll keel over in a Nuclear Standoff hitting the big red button on the way down has never been so certain.
That the whole thing is a democratic setup at its best to get Kamala the job never entered my mind.
Cheers
Pete
Hi Unknown [at September 18, 2020 at 12:14 AM]
Yes a severe test of political stability may occur but could it be worse that Dubya and Florida? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election#Aftermath
Hi again Unknown
A good article, which better responds to your concerns, is by Joseph Fitsanakis, at IntelNews, September 18, 2020, https://intelnews.org/2020/09/18/01-2872/
"Trump’s ex-spy chief warns American democracy may not survive November election"
"The former United States Director of National Intelligence, who served in the administration of President Donald Trump as the highest-ranking intelligence official until 2019, has warned that American democracy may not survive the upcoming presidential election.
In a stark editorial published on Thursday in The New York Times, Dan Coats warns that whether “the American democratic experiment, one of the boldest political innovations in human history”, will survive after November, remains an open question.
...In his editorial, Coats urges Congress to pass “emergency legislation” that will establish a “supremely high-level bipartisan and non-partisan commission to oversee the [upcoming 2020 Presidential] election”.
The proposed commission would supervise the mechanisms that “tabulate, evaluate or certify the results” of the election and assure the American public that “the laws and regulations governing them have been scrupulously and expeditiously followed”, argues Coats.
Additionally, it would refer “to the proper law enforcement agency” any incident of election “interference, fraud, disinformation or other distortions”.
Coats also calls on American leaders to perform what he describes as the “most urgent task [they] face”, which is “to ensure that the election results are accepted as legitimate”..."
MORE at https://intelnews.org/2020/09/18/01-2872/
Hi Pete
I believe the situation actually changed to advantage of Trump contributed by following factors: i) extreme superiority of incumbent president in the Presidential race, ii) disrespect of law and order (against prevailed riots) by Democrats governors, iii) poor performance of Biden as Vice President in Obama administration [1], iv) tie between Democrats and socialists (Vice Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris), v) mental health issue of Biden, vi) nationalism of Trump, vii) bad election strategy by Democrats, and so on.
[1] Obama decided to capture Osama bin Laden in his staff meeting, and only Biden disagreed the capture. Diplomatic sabotage by Biden against China’s invasion in the South China Sea is pointed out, but, American does not care diplomacy at all.
Regards
Hi Anonymous
We could argue the merits of Trump and Biden endlessly.
It'll be up to some US journalist to write the definitive blockbuster indicating your UBL assumptions fall short and over how much US intel knew about UBL's "why such a massive walled house with no known VIP owner that we can see with our satellites" Abbottabad domesticity years before 2011.
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