The President of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the winner of the presidential election conducted by (case 1) members of Parliament (Upper and Lower Houses; 394 votes) representatives of Prefectures (3 people par prefecture; 141 votes) or members of LDP, (159 votes), (case 2) members of Parliament and representatives of Prefecture. Case 2 is expected in the next election.
Candidates of the President are Fumio Kishida (Chairperson of Policy Research Council of LDP, leader of Kishida faction), Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Secretary, independent) and Shigeru Ishiba (leader of Ishiba faction). As Ishiba is very unpopular in members of Parliament and representatives of Prefecture, either Kishida or Suga becomes the President of LDP = Prime Minister.
Members of Parliament belong to following faction: Hosoda faction (98) to which Abe belongs, Aso faction (54), Takeshita faction (54) , Kishida faction (47), Nikai faction (47), Ishiba faction (19), Ishihara faction (11), independent. Hosoda, Aso and Nikai factions seem to support Suga, and if it is true, Suga wins the President.
Away from power politics in LDP, Suga is best candidate because he involves Abe’s policy deeply as Chief Cabinet Secretary. Kishida used to be Minister of Foreign Affairs in Abe administration, but he was not impressive compared with his successors, Taro Kono (current Minister of Defense, Aso faction) and Toshimitsu Motegi (current MFA, Takeshita faction).
Thanks for the analysis on the complex factional aspects of the competition to be next Prime Minister of Japan.
Both Fumio Kishida [1] and Yoshihide Suga [2] seem to have filled very central policy positions and have formed many factional and personal alliances,
I see from the Japan Times yesterday https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/30/national/politics-diplomacy/yoshihide-suga-ldp-leadership-election-shinzo-abe-japan/ said that former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba is still a contender. In 2011 Ishiba even
"backed the idea of Japan maintaining the capability of building nuclear weapons" [3].
Mr. Suga will definitely become PM. He is a practical man, achieves many tasks as Chief Cabinet Secretary and declares to follow Abe’s policy. Considering the continuation of diplomacy and defense policy which are key policies of Abe’s administration and the tough diplomatic situation including severe conflict between China and USA, Mr. Motege [1], Minister of Foreign Affairs and Mr. Kono [2], Minister of Defense might stay in their offices.
[1] Toshimitus Motegi is one of most brainy politicians of LDP and his diplomatic performance is better than his predecessor (Mr. Kono). However, he is extremely unpopular thanks to his arrogance and rudeness.
[2] Taro Kono is a pedigreed, talented and very popular politician and shows good performance in diplomacy and defense related matters. However, he needs more political experience. If next PM designates him as Chief Cabinet Secretary, it will be a great opportunity for him.
Yes even now, on September 6, Suga is still the favourite to win. https://japantoday.com/category/politics/update1-suga-favored-to-succeed-pm-abe-says-new-gov't-won't-be-interim reports:
"TOKYO Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, favored to become the next Japanese [prime minister], said Saturday he will not aim for an "interim" government to fill in for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who will depart in the middle of his current term citing ill health.
In an interview with Kyodo News, Suga, the right-hand man of Abe, said the coronavirus response will be the top priority for the next administration.
"The next administration should not be an interim government," Suga said. "The next leader should fulfill duties with confidence and discharge responsibility to the people.""
4 comments:
Hi Pete
The President of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the winner of the presidential election conducted by (case 1) members of Parliament (Upper and Lower Houses; 394 votes) representatives of Prefectures (3 people par prefecture; 141 votes) or members of LDP, (159 votes), (case 2) members of Parliament and representatives of Prefecture. Case 2 is expected in the next election.
Candidates of the President are Fumio Kishida (Chairperson of Policy Research Council of LDP, leader of Kishida faction), Yoshihide Suga (Chief Cabinet Secretary, independent) and Shigeru Ishiba (leader of Ishiba faction). As Ishiba is very unpopular in members of Parliament and representatives of Prefecture, either Kishida or Suga becomes the President of LDP = Prime Minister.
Members of Parliament belong to following faction: Hosoda faction (98) to which Abe belongs, Aso faction (54), Takeshita faction (54) , Kishida faction (47), Nikai faction (47), Ishiba faction (19), Ishihara faction (11), independent. Hosoda, Aso and Nikai factions seem to support Suga, and if it is true, Suga wins the President.
Away from power politics in LDP, Suga is best candidate because he involves Abe’s policy deeply as Chief Cabinet Secretary. Kishida used to be Minister of Foreign Affairs in Abe administration, but he was not impressive compared with his successors, Taro Kono (current Minister of Defense, Aso faction) and Toshimitsu Motegi (current MFA, Takeshita faction).
Regards
Hi Anonymous
Thanks for the analysis on the complex factional aspects of the competition to be next Prime Minister of Japan.
Both Fumio Kishida [1] and Yoshihide Suga [2] seem to have filled very central policy positions and have formed many factional and personal alliances,
I see from the Japan Times yesterday https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/30/national/politics-diplomacy/yoshihide-suga-ldp-leadership-election-shinzo-abe-japan/ said that former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba is still a contender. In 2011 Ishiba even
"backed the idea of Japan maintaining the capability of building nuclear weapons" [3].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fumio_Kishida
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoshihide_Suga
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba#Interest_in_military_issues
Pete
Hi Pete
Mr. Suga will definitely become PM. He is a practical man, achieves many tasks as Chief Cabinet Secretary and declares to follow Abe’s policy. Considering the continuation of diplomacy and defense policy which are key policies of Abe’s administration and the tough diplomatic situation including severe conflict between China and USA, Mr. Motege [1], Minister of Foreign Affairs and Mr. Kono [2], Minister of Defense might stay in their offices.
[1] Toshimitus Motegi is one of most brainy politicians of LDP and his diplomatic performance is better than his predecessor (Mr. Kono). However, he is extremely unpopular thanks to his arrogance and rudeness.
[2] Taro Kono is a pedigreed, talented and very popular politician and shows good performance in diplomacy and defense related matters. However, he needs more political experience. If next PM designates him as Chief Cabinet Secretary, it will be a great opportunity for him.
Regards
Hi Anonymous [at September 3, 2020 at 7:18 PM]
Yes even now, on September 6, Suga is still the favourite to win. https://japantoday.com/category/politics/update1-suga-favored-to-succeed-pm-abe-says-new-gov't-won't-be-interim reports:
"TOKYO Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, favored to become the next Japanese [prime minister], said Saturday he will not aim for an "interim" government to fill in for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who will depart in the middle of his current term citing ill health.
In an interview with Kyodo News, Suga, the right-hand man of Abe, said the coronavirus response will be the top priority for the next administration.
"The next administration should not be an interim government," Suga said. "The next leader should fulfill duties with confidence and discharge responsibility to the people.""
Regards
Pete
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