Isn't it ironic that Kim and Trump are meeting in Vietnam of all places.
In 1973 the US signalled to North Vietnam that US support of its ally, South Vietnam, was weakening.
I wonder if South Koreans are quietly alarmed that 2019 may be seen as a negotiated US weakening of support for South Korea - against rising pressure from North Korea.
Pete
In 1973 the US signalled to North Vietnam that US support of its ally, South Vietnam, was weakening.
I wonder if South Koreans are quietly alarmed that 2019 may be seen as a negotiated US weakening of support for South Korea - against rising pressure from North Korea.
Pete
13 comments:
Hi Pete
As NK's nuclear and missile development has repeated history of lie, US President should not met Kim Jong-un without thorough verification of CVID（Complete,Verifiable,and Irreversible Dismantlement）by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Kim Jong-un has spent all All resources on nuclear and missile development and never gives up it.
US and SK have reached preliminary settlement of Defense budget contributions Special Agreement (SMA) to prevent the withdrawal of US troop from SK which may provide unification of Korean Peninsula by NK not by SK [1, 2]. SK conspire with NK proven by violation of UN sanction [3]. Contemporaries of SK President Moon Jae-in, “so-called 386 Generation” [4] belongs to left wing.
[1]https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/us-south-korea-reach-preliminary-one-year-burden-sharing-agreement/
“US-South Korea Reach Preliminary One-Year Burden-Sharing Agreement”
[2] There is no automatic intervention clause in “Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea”. When NK causes military action in SK after withdrawal of US troop, counter action by US military should be approved in US Senate. Before the approval of US counter action, NK armed with nuclear missile can occupy SK at the worst case.
[3]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/31/asia-pacific/u-n-panel-concludes-south-korea-shipments-petroleum-north-violated-sanctions-sources-say/#.XFv1czP7TIU
“U.N. panel to accuse South Korea of violating sanctions with petroleum shipments to North, sources say”
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/386_Generation
Regards
That must also be on Kim's minds. And from Hanoi, that past weights against joining Indo-Pac. But the US loves China Beach or My Khe beach now.
KQN
Hi Anonymous [at 7/2/19 8:31 PM ]
Thanks for the information and references. I'll turn them into an article soon.
The matters are even more complicated than Trump would be aware.
Regards
Pete
Hi KQN
I doubt Trump is even aware of the history of the Koreas and Vietnams. There are few left unsacked in his Administration who could tell him the background.
And Trump is functionally illeterate so picking up a book or even a 3 page briefing is out.
Though he does like pictures and Fox News sound bites.
Are "China Beach" nickname for My Khe beach in the port of Đà Nẵng, Vietnam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Beach . As it was on TV Trump may be vaguely aware.
Cheers
Pete
Missile base expansion, nuke program acceleration etc.. trump is getting played like a vintage stradivarius by a member of dynasty that has perfected the art of brinkmanship
The Singapore meet got him diddlysquat... what they hope to do this time..only heaven knows.
The saddest part is trump might well get re-elected...
Hi GhalibKabir
Unfortunately I think you're right on all counts.
Like Pakistan, North Korea has sacrificed much over decades in its poor economy to build a nuclear weapon and missile capability. NK is not about to sacrifice all that deterrent.
Also if there were an NK-SK confrontation the US nuclear capability is portable - US ground launched weapons can be flown into SK bases, can be placed on bombers and are already mounted on SSBNs.
Re-election? The majority of US voters care less about US foreign policy than economic performance. They care more about jobs and other aspects of good economic performance, Trump is delivering that to them.
But if foreign issues are discussed in 2020 Trump will falsely claim he brought US troops home from the Middle East and Afghanistan AND he brought peace to the Koreas.
Regards
Pete
He is certainly taking credit for the numbers which are admittedly high (the quality of jig type jobs in the new information economy & sustainability is another issue)
Mostly what he has managed to do is unite an entire spectrum of 'religious bigot wannabes' to 'fulltime religious bigot busybodies'into an voting block by ensuring brazenly rabid judges being appointed across the judiciary.
This will be his lasting pernicious legacy that will harm the US for decades, as you very well know from history that religious bigots have to interfere with everybody else's life and seek control (the very definition of big government is the one residing in the uterus)
The exceptional lack of empathy for fellow human beings and justifying that hatred and bigotry as right in the name of late JC and expressing brazen hypocrisy is very hard to see as a human being. They even have the gall to preach about the sanctity of life when they have killed the most in the name of their god. I thought those days were gone in the 70s. How wrong!, evangelicals are proving to be a resilient virus and a pox on humanity.
Dump will of course sell the South Koreans down the river on a whim if it suits him so...
He has sold the Afghan women esp. down the Kabul river already as the Taliban come back. It angers me so much that trillions of dollars and thousands of graves resulted in zilch!
Hi Pete
Econnmic situation of SK also will significantly affect on appeasement policy of Moon Jae-in administration against NK. Combination of Donald Trump, Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un may provide unprecedented geopolitics in the North East Asia.
[1] https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/article?a=20190201-00556144-shincho-kr.view-003
South Korean economy is in critical situation, because sharp decline in trade surplus and deterioration of bilateral relationship with US and Japan may cause capital flight. As US and Japan are furious at SK, they do not offer help such as the currency swap.
[2]https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/article?a=20190201-00556144-shincho-kr&p=3
China and South Korea currency swap had expired on Oct/10/2017 and market believes there is no currency swap between the two countries.SK can depend on the currency swap with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Swissland, but it is not enough to defend the currency.
[3] https://tradingeconomics.com/south-korea/foreign-exchange-reserves
Foreign Exchange Reserves in South Korea increased to 405USD Billion in January from 403USD Billion in December of 2018. But, according to Ex-Chairman of FRB, Greenspan, the Asia currency crisis was caused by South Korea. It was believed thatsBank of Korea had 25USD Billion Foreign Exchange Reserves, but they did not have it.
Regards
Hi GhalibKabir at 8/2/19 4:53 PM
Americans didn't have much choice in 2016 between a long discredited Hillary and boorish Trump.
I think, one of the reasons Putin backed Trump was that Putin knew Putin's perpetual presidency would look subtle and moderate compared to Ugly American Trump.
THAT SAID Trump has been good for the US economy (what US voters want) AND
Trumps trade measures against China may be hobbling China's economic growth. A weaker Chinese economy tarnishes justifications for the Communist Party's grip.
I wonder if India's Modi quietly relishes China's discomfiture?
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous [at 8/2/19 7:37 PM]
Thanks for the information.
South Korea's economic situation looks very complex.
Regards
Pete
I don't think China is in any discomfort (yet). Modi or any Indian PM will not want a China that is as tetchy as surly rhino with an inflamed piles. such situations always end badly.
If pressurised really, China might resort to 'enemy from outside' bogey to get aggressive with any one of its favorite punching bags, (in no particular order), India, Taiwan, Philippines, etc., a situation best avoided.
i think the CCP's hold on China is way more stronger than people give it credit for. They will ride out a lot of difficulty before showing any outward signs of real weakness.
vis-a-vis HRC vs Dump, I will strongly disagree. This false equivalence in the US media was what gave the pestilence called dump to the world.
HRC with all her legitimately assignable weaknesses was still leagues ahead as a potential POTUS compared to the current one. To say they are the same is to claim an ordinary fever is the same as acute malarial fever. the former is benign while the latter can and does kill often. for starters, HRC would not have sent judicial neanderthals to the SCOTUS nor would she have chucked money down the train by giving more 'gravy' off the train to 0.1%
Hi GhalibKabir [at 11/2/19 8:59 PM]
Thanks for your reply. Though I disagree with bits.
"HRCs" that is Hillary Rodham Clinton's main weakness was that she was so verifiably unappealing to the US electorate that she lost the 2016 Election. Hillary had too much of a negative reputation due to controversies going back decades. Hillary also collapsed during the Election campaign - thus demonstrating her health was even too weak for the rigours of electioneering, let alone being President. See second paragraph of Health subsection here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton_2016_presidential_campaign#Health
Sure Putin helped the Trump campaign, but it was so close that an untarnished, fresh Democrat man or woman, with a bit of charisma, would have won.
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete,
Again, accepting your view in toto (i largely do concur with parts) does not change the fact that rural americans should have known better than to elect a verified charlatan like trump (sigh!, not surprising considering a large group of folks in the US worship joseph smith, a convicted felon, a serial abuser of women, etc.)
I am sure Bernie Sanders would have been a nice candidate, but he was an opportunistic democrat/part independent who might have put off a chunk of democrats themselves. About your point on a fresh candidate, well I take it, For me, Biden would have wiped the floor with that orange cretin, but for the inoppurtune passing away of his son. Who else? I am afraid the rest of the democrat larder was rather weak.
electing dump was a bit like electing the arsonist for the role of fire chief because the other fellow was a bit old and not so effectual, eventhough he has had experience fire fighting....(I am alluding to HRC's health issues, a legit but not crippling concern imo)
(I am hoping dump 45 is not some Baldrick style 'I have a cunning plan' by the electorate which we are not privy to...I am presuming your familiarity with Blackadder here)
have a nice week
Cheers
PS: The Barracuda saga continues doesn't it...
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