An ageless cartoon: the risk of another North Korean attack and How Should The US Prevent It?
---
On February 7, 2019 Anonymous kindly provided a comment below the article
Trump Meeting Kim in Vietnam - Where US Abandoned South Vietnam (February 7). Pete has further translated the comment, added additional links and provided extra comments in [...] brackets.
North
Korea’s (NK’s) nuclear weapon and missile development has never stopped under the
Kim dynasty
no matter how much the Kims have been economical with the truth. Trump should not meet Kim Jong-un unless
Trump insists on a genuine program of Complete,
Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement (CVID). as assessed by the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). [But the goal "Irreversible Dismantlement" is impossible without constant and open international inspections of NK's military nuclear facilities and missile launch sites].
The US
and SK have reached a preliminary settlement of the Special Measure Agreement (SMA). The SMA involves SK financial contributions to the
non-personnel military costs of stationing US personnel in SK, which is updated
every 5 years. With the SMA on the way to settlement US troops should not withdraw from SK. As such
a withdrawal would only encourage NK to forcibly unite the Korean Peninsula [see [1] and [2] below]. [by invading SK].
[The defense of SK is not being helped by the mixed signals SK is giving NK.]
SK has
breached international sanctions by supplying petroleum products to NK [3]
Contemporaries
of SK President Moon Jae-in “the so-called 386 Generation” have a leftwing
view of NK and the world.
[1] https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/us-south-korea-reach-preliminary-one-year-burden-sharing-agreement/ [paysite] On February 5, 2019 the US and SK reached a preliminary 1 year Burden-Sharing Agreement under which SK’s SMA contribution will rise to US$1 Billion per year.
[2] There is [mutual aid but no] automatic armed intervention clause in “Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea”. When NK subsequently invades SK, after a US troop withdrawal, US intervention would need the approval of the US Senate. In the worst case scenario, by the time the US tries to intervene this would be blocked by NK stationing nuclear missiles on what would be now "former SK territory".
[3] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/31/asia-pacific/u-n-panel-concludes-south-korea-shipments-petroleum-north-violated-sanctions-sources-say/#.XFv1czP7TIU
“U.N. panel to accuse South Korea of violating sanctions with petroleum shipments to North, sources say”
[Pete Comment - Over the decades NK, a very poor country, has spent a large proportion of its national income on building up its nuclear weapon and missile capability. NK is therefore very unlikely to dismantle its nuclear deterrent (against yet another invasion by the US).
[“members of the 386 Generation are generally not as enthusiastic about US-South Korean relationships as their parents’ generation, and some have gone so far as to support the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula altogether. Some of them are also sympathetic to the North Korean [maybe "better red than dead"?] regime and advocate a peace agreement with North Korea at all costs.”]
[1] https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/us-south-korea-reach-preliminary-one-year-burden-sharing-agreement/ [paysite] On February 5, 2019 the US and SK reached a preliminary 1 year Burden-Sharing Agreement under which SK’s SMA contribution will rise to US$1 Billion per year.
[2] There is [mutual aid but no] automatic armed intervention clause in “Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea”. When NK subsequently invades SK, after a US troop withdrawal, US intervention would need the approval of the US Senate. In the worst case scenario, by the time the US tries to intervene this would be blocked by NK stationing nuclear missiles on what would be now "former SK territory".
[3] https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/31/asia-pacific/u-n-panel-concludes-south-korea-shipments-petroleum-north-violated-sanctions-sources-say/#.XFv1czP7TIU
“U.N. panel to accuse South Korea of violating sanctions with petroleum shipments to North, sources say”
[Pete Comment - Over the decades NK, a very poor country, has spent a large proportion of its national income on building up its nuclear weapon and missile capability. NK is therefore very unlikely to dismantle its nuclear deterrent (against yet another invasion by the US).
The only reasonable hope is that NK slows down construction of this nuclear capability and adopts a more positive attitude to South Korea, Japan, the US and other countries
For a previous article I wrote about this issue see North Korea's Nuclear Deterrent Totally Justified of May 24, 2018 ].
For a previous article I wrote about this issue see North Korea's Nuclear Deterrent Totally Justified of May 24, 2018 ].
Anonymous and Pete
5 comments:
They won't change their posture one bit in Pyongyang. The one entity whose role could become more vital as time goes by will be China. SK is simply a convenient milch cow.
China along with Russia have given invaluable aid to NK to make it the power that it is.
(esp. the Nuclear Syphilis menage-a-trois between China, pakistan and NK)
a more diabolical set of twins, namely, NK and pakistan is not conceivable.
Even Ebola having twins by co-habiting with AIDS would have been hard pressed to produce such an infernally fiendish outcome :(
cue the outcome: The US leaving with its tail between its legs from Kabul thanks to pakistan arming and aiding the taliban unabated while NK is more or less directly helped by China and is running rings around the US. dumpster calls this victory! sigh!
Love the blog, been lurking for a while.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that some sort of deal will be made that might see the destruction of NK's missile program but leave some nukes intact. there are a few reasons i see sort of outcome like this.
1. the situation in NK is different than iran, so i don't see a similar deal. NK's missile program isn't as advanced as iran's, however iran didn't test and develop multiple nuclear weapons. Iran has an operating nuke plant while nk doesn't.
2. NK still answers to China. They are still not to happy about that THAAD system in NK. If a deal is reached that see's the destruction of NK"s missile program then walla, no need for THAAD in SK.this in turn means should a war start out between the US and China, the US would have to request permission from SK to place a THAAD there. That in turn would have the effect of them choosing sides. I know china has threatened SK over the THAAD system but to fire that shot..... thats what china is trying to avoid. Japan is only getting more aggressive while SK isn't showing the same posture towards china.
And a few more but got things to do.
Before correction of 9/2/19 6:27 PM
Any nuke should be remained in NK
After correction
Any nuke should be not remained in NK
Hi Pete
[change made] Any nuke should not remain in NK. SK is planning to build SSN [1]. Diplomatic stance of SK is fluctuating between US and China as shown in US-China equidistant diplomacy by Park Geun-hye and NK appeasement diplomacy by Moon Jae-in. When US is stronger, SK supports US and when China is stronger, SK supports China. The diplomatic fluctuation of SK develops a feeling of distrust against SK in US. Combination SK’s SSN and NK’s nuke will provide SSBN, unless China interferes [2]. If Moon Jae-in paves the way of unification of Korea, Kim Jong-un will dominate the Unified Korea by fear [3].
[1] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/should-south-korea-start-building-nuclear-submarines-22480 “Should South Korea Start Building Nuclear Submarines?” by Jihoon Yu Erik French
[2] “Kim Jong-un: Governance Structure of Fear and Absurdity” (JPN), Shinchosha, March/15/2018, by Pak Toojin. This book describes governance by Kim Jong-un in detail.
Preface: “If China stops the supply of crude oil perfectly, Km Jung-un regime can not be maintained for several months.”
[3] ibid
In contrast to his grandfather and father (Kim Il-song, Kim Jong-il), Kim Jung does not have social nature and is much cruel. He does not hesitate to purge at all and so many people are excuted. Rember execution of the uncle-in-law, Jang Song-thaek and his family, and assassination of big brother, Kim Jong-nam.
Regards
Hi GhalibKabir and Anonymouses of 9/2/19 6:14 AM and 9/2/19 11:50 PM
If I were a North Korean (tired of being invaded) I certainly wouldn't knock the benefits of a nuclear deterrent.
But using it as an ever present threat against South Korea is unnecessary.
Norht Korea, like Israel, could have a quiet nuclear deterrent, thereby still being part of the international community.
Regards
Pete
Post a Comment