Update on India's SSBN and SLBM Evolution

(Diagram courtesy India's DRDO, H I Sutton and The Diplomat.)

Submarine Matters has periodically provided updates on India's SSBNs and SLBMs since 2009.

India’s Financial Express published an excellent article “INS Arihant: The ballistic missile submarine is giving India’s nuclear triad a lethal edge” of January 2, 2019 by Dr. Sanjay Badri-Maharaj

who neatly combines many issues of India’s evolving SSBNs and SLBMs. The following is drawn from the article with direct quotes (where indicated) with bolding by Pete.

On November 5, 2018, INS Arihant completed its first deterrence patrol.

India efforts have been concentrated on developing two SLBMs:

-  the 750 km range K-15 (see diagram above) which underwent at least 12 development trials from a submerged pontoon. On  November 25, 2015, an unarmed K-15 was purportedly fired from the INS Arihant. The K15’s limited range makes it very much an interim system. Twelve can be carried by the Arihant. “It should be stated that this has not yet been confirmed by Indian officials and no photographs have emerged of such a launch from the Arihant.”

-  the 3500km range K-4 to be deployed aboard the Arihant class SSBNs. The K-4 was first tested on March 24, 2014 from a submerged pontoon and then on March 7, 2016. Thereafter it was reportedly tested from the INS Arihant itself on March 31, 2016. “It would be surprising if such a major development were not highlighted in some way but in any event, development of the K-4 is clearly well in progress.” Four K-4s are to arm the Arihant class and the K-4 is very similar to the Agni-IIIs in dimensions and performance. “The K-4 has some way to go before it can be inducted into service, however, once it does, the INS Arihant and its sisters will have a much more viable weapon at their disposal, though the limited number of missiles carried will be a distinct drawback. It is anticipated that from the INS Arighat onwards, the number of K-4 missiles will increase to eight per vessel, making the SSBNs far more effective and flexible.

The K-5 and K-6 are reportedly planned for follow-on SSBNs, displacing more than twice that of the Arihant class.

“The 13,500 ton SSBNs of the so-called S-5 class are to carry twelve of the 5000 km range K-5 – development of which started in 2015, with no tests done to date – or a similar number of the 6000 km range K-6” which is to have MIRVs. The longer-ranged K-5 could replace the K-4 on the Arihant class to enhance its effectiveness and flexibility.

“the Arihant class is a relatively modest vessel by the high standards set by the five larger nuclear powers which operate much more potent vessels.

“In fact, it might have been expected for India to develop an SSN – like the Akula class submarine currently leased as the INS Chakra. By opting for an SSBN, it is clear India allocated priority to the Arihant project with plans for six SSNs being left for the future.”

[Pete Comment: the SSBN first sequence was like France's which first had Redoubtable SSBNs in commission from 1971 and then Rubis SSNs from 1983.]

“However, while the INS Arihant does mark an important step forward for India’s nuclear triad, care should be taken not to assume that this leg of the triad is either complete or totally credible. Until the K-4 is operational, the INS Arihant has next to no deterrent capability vs China. In addition, additional SSBNs are needed to allow for continuous patrols. These two necessary steps will take time to come to fruition.”

Dr. Sanjay Badri-Maharaj is an Independent Defence Analyst and Security Consultant. He is also the author of Indian Nuclear Strategy: Confronting the Potential Threat from both China and Pakistan.

SEE THE WHOLE DR. BADRI-MAHARAJ ARTICLE

India's evolving SLBMs - the K-4 and K-15 (Diagram courtesy Indian Defense News).