(Diagram courtesy India's DRDO, H I Sutton and The Diplomat.)
Submarine Matters has periodically provided updates on India's SSBNs and SLBMs since 2009.
India’s Financial Express published an excellent article
“INS Arihant: The
ballistic missile submarine is giving India’s nuclear triad a lethal edge” of
January 2, 2019 by Dr. Sanjay Badri-Maharaj
who neatly combines many issues of India’s evolving SSBNs and SLBMs. The
following is drawn from the article with direct quotes (where indicated) with bolding
by Pete.
On November 5, 2018, INS Arihant completed
its first deterrence patrol.
India efforts have been concentrated on developing
two SLBMs:
- the 750 km range K-15 (see diagram above) which underwent
at least 12 development trials from a submerged pontoon. On November 25, 2015,
an unarmed K-15 was purportedly fired from the INS Arihant. The K15’s limited
range makes it very much an interim system. Twelve can be carried by the
Arihant. “It should be stated that this has not yet been confirmed by Indian
officials and no photographs have emerged of such a launch from the Arihant.”
- the 3500km range K-4 to be deployed aboard
the Arihant class SSBNs. The K-4 was first tested on March 24, 2014 from a
submerged pontoon and then on March 7, 2016. Thereafter it was reportedly tested
from the INS Arihant itself on March 31, 2016. “It would be surprising if such a
major development were not highlighted in some way but in any event,
development of the K-4 is clearly well in progress.” Four K-4s are to arm the
Arihant class and the K-4 is very similar to the Agni-IIIs in dimensions and performance.
“The K-4 has some way to go before it can be inducted into service, however,
once it does, the INS Arihant and its sisters will have a much more viable
weapon at their disposal, though the
limited number of missiles carried will be a distinct drawback. It is
anticipated that from the INS Arighat onwards, the number of K-4 missiles will
increase to eight per vessel, making the SSBNs far more effective and flexible.
The K-5
and K-6 are reportedly planned for follow-on SSBNs, displacing more than
twice that of the Arihant class.
“The 13,500
ton SSBNs of the so-called S-5 class are to carry twelve of the 5000 km range
K-5 – development of which started in 2015, with no tests done to date – or a
similar number of the 6000 km range K-6” which is to have MIRVs. The
longer-ranged K-5 could replace the K-4 on the Arihant class to enhance its effectiveness
and flexibility.
“the Arihant class is a relatively modest vessel by
the high standards set by the five larger nuclear powers which operate much
more potent vessels.
“In fact, it might have been expected for India to
develop an SSN – like the Akula class submarine currently leased as the INS
Chakra. By opting for an SSBN, it is clear India allocated priority to the
Arihant project with plans for six SSNs being left for the future.”
[Pete Comment: the SSBN first sequence was like France's which first had Redoubtable SSBNs in commission from
1971 and then Rubis SSNs from 1983.]
“However, while the INS Arihant does mark an important step forward for
India’s nuclear triad, care should be taken not to assume that this leg of the
triad is either complete or totally credible. Until the K-4 is operational, the
INS Arihant has next to no deterrent capability vs China. In addition,
additional SSBNs are needed to allow for continuous patrols. These two
necessary steps will take time to come to fruition.”
Dr. Sanjay Badri-Maharaj is
an Independent Defence Analyst and Security Consultant. He is also the author
of Indian Nuclear Strategy: Confronting the Potential Threat from both China
and Pakistan.
India's evolving SLBMs - the K-4 and K-15 (Diagram courtesy Indian Defense News).
16 comments:
I think to be fair, the GoI understands Arihant is at best a 'technology demonstrator' platform to get hands on training in operating an SSBN. (never mind illiterate media anchors yapping endlessly)
The K-5 and hopefully a 3 MIRV K-6 (kinda similar to JL-2 or the M-45) will be flight tested soon. The K-15 is similar to the progress the Chinese made with the JL-1 in the 1980s. Not much practical use in a war. Interestingly they built SSNs first then SSBNs while India is doing the french way (SSBN first then SSN). I would assume reactor design skills are work in progress as SSNs are way more exacting in terms of reactor needs.
All in All, I would say this process I guess will proceed at a steady slow pace with a new SSBN joining the fleet every 4-5 years or so.
True deterrence will be when there are at least 2 SSNs available for patrol and the SSBNs will be able to fire deep from the Indian Ocean (say 1000-1500 km south of Sri Lanka), then we will have true deterrence. it took China from 1970s onwards till early 2010s to get a semblance of a second strike capability. India will take another 10 years at least.
Hi GhalibKabir
Yes the Government of India (GoI) would:
- realise that INS Arihant is just a "technology demonstrator" but
- for public relations (and to justify all that public money spent) claim that a (hope that the public thinks K-4) armed Arihant can actually perform "deterrent patrols" in the Bay of Bengal.
Also note in the top diagram how dangerously north in the Bay a K-4 armed Arihant would need to sit to reach most of China. MIRVed K-6s in 2032? are really needed for a true deterrent with India's SSBNs "1000-1500 km south of Sri Lanka". The psychological ability to have Beijing city in range is essential.
Very interesting your miniaturizing the reactor reason with K48 in Redoubtable SSBN then smaller in Rubis SSN.
As this is likely again been happening with the K15 in Triomphant SSBN
then delayed to miniaturize it for the Barracuda/Suffren class SSN https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2018/11/frances-barracuda-delayed-existing-k15.html
While India is only very slowly adding SSBNs with new SLBMs to the fleet I suppose India is mainly relying on longer range Agnis to cover Beijing city and China's SSBNs (in ports or at sea).
Regards
Pete
lamentably, the public is none the wiser (the english press is India is about as useful as a burst second appendix and their endless wailing needs to be just shoved away)
The vernacular press barely bothers with such stuff (even when Mumbai was attacked in 2008 by the LeT terrorists, the vernacular presses covered it for 2 days and did not bother afterwards, whereas the english TV and newspapers with a fraction of the viewership were howling like a soundly thrashed dog for months)
As I mentioned, the only way for India is to walk the China path. Land based deterrence for decades as a sea based deterrent takes shape slowly. Till 2015, the PLAN did not have an effective sea based deterrence when the JL-2 was finally approved for patrols on the Jin SSBN. Considering 1981 as the start date, that is 34 years for a proper SLBM.
So as you say, for the next 10-15 years at least Agni-V and Agni VI (rail and road mobile) will be the most effective deterrent. Even the K-6 should ideally have a range in excess of 7,000 km if it wants to say target Beijing from south of Diego Garcia for instance.
Hi GhalibKabir
Public and entusiast "expert" discussion in Australia of our submarines is not too bad as there is little distorting element of national pride in our Collins or future submarines. A major difference is our submarines are not nuclear powered nor nuclear armed.
Silly ideas like placing an Aussie submarine tender all be its vulnerable lonesome in our northern waters come and go. Another idea is that Aus could easily and quickly acquire nuclear subs from the US or France.
I wrote about the 2008 Mumbai attack in 2008 (unfortunately I deleted those articles article in 2012) but remembered 2008 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2013/11/mumbai-2611-2008-massacre-lest-we-forget.html during the Fifth Year Anniversay.
Having sufficient numbers (over 100) Agni-IV Vs and VIs is essential. Maybe some in hardened silos as Chinese satellites and agents on the ground may be able to identitify most of the rail and road mobile Agnis.
Yes the ability of China to place SOSUS from Myanmar waters to Sri Lanka and Chinese vessels or sensors on the Bangladeshi cost means no Indian SSBN can safely operate in the Bay of Bengal - or Arabian Sea for that matter. So 7,000+ K-6+ range is essential.
Regards
Pete
At the end of 2017, India was speculated to have around 75-80 Agni I to Agni V and K-4 Mk1 missiles in inventory. Apparently the number of Agni-V and K-4 are max 5 each and Agni IV less than 10 implying the bulk of India's land based missiles are Agni I,II and III (55-65 atleast)
I think when K-4, K-5, Agni VI are also fully developed, India should have more than 100 ICBM and good range MRBMs.
More critical will be the ability to finish developing the turbofan engine to power Nirbhay cruise missile. Right now it uses a not so efficient turbojet engine limiting its range to below 700 km. This missile might become a mainstay along side a SLCM version of Brahmos (hopefully unlocked to its full 600 km range post Indian entry into MTCR) in any future Indian SSGN/SSN combining land attack and sub hunt abilities. Just like Russian 949AMs.
Of course, India will eventually need its own UUVs and SOSUS along with good towed active variable depth sonar to catch snooping PLAN subs.
Hi GhalibKabir [at 23/1/19 4:58 PM]
Thanks. I imagine that with 5 Agni-Vs and 5 K-4s that may not be sufficient for a complete test program to ensure reliability. Also whole of trajectory (Agni-V 8,000?km https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agni-V and K-4 3,500km) may need to be tested. Is there a test range political arrangement that long in the Indian Ocean?
I wonder if Israel with (possibly with a very Tomahawk looking) "Popeye Turbo" could help with the Nirbhay turbofan.
If BrahMos is using a rocket booster and ramjet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BrahMos there may be more years to add and perfect any BrahMos turbofan? for long range.
Hopefully India sharing a SOSUS that may extend to Chennai may earn India may make the US-Japan more willing to share sonar technology - especially against the PLAN.
Regards
Pete
An excellent article, Pete.
Thanks for the info. I'm new to your blog and have been reading through all your recent articles.
I have a request. I am a naval warfare enthusiast, especially surface vessels. But I am having trouble finding any good authoritative book on the subject.
Can you please suggest a few books/authors that will give me more info on surface naval warfare? Especially electronics like Radars and ECM.
Thanks
Thanks Vishal
I typed in Amazon books the search terms "electronics" and "ships". This brought up "2017 U.S. Navy Illustrated Encyclopedia of Weapons, Ships, and Equipment" https://www.amazon.com/Illustrated-Encyclopedia-Weapons-Ships-Equipment/dp/1521151326/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1548336339&sr=1-5&keywords=electronics+ships
that is a Paperback, dated April 25, 2017" That looks inexpensive and there are also other Internet book selling sites that may be cheaper than Amazon
Also this search looks interesting https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks-intl-ship&field-keywords=marine+electronic+engineering
Also I normally go to wikipedia first eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SLQ-32_Electronic_Warfare_Suite
Then I look at the links, references "see also" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/SLQ-32_Electronic_Warfare_Suite#See_also
Regards
Pete
Slightly off topic, an interesting The Diplomat (paysite) article of January 24, 2019 by Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, called
"Where Would India Fit in a Missile Defense Partnership in the Indo-Pacific?" :
A closer look at what the recently released U.S. Missile Defense Review means for New Delhi."
at https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/where-would-india-fit-in-a-missile-defense-partnership-in-the-indo-pacific/
which includes: " Australia also plays an important role in strengthening the regional missile defense cooperation through a trilateral engagement with the United States and Japan."
"...this comes in the backdrop of India’s decision to buy the Russian S-400 air defense system for $5 billion. The Indian decision to proceed with the S-400 systems is indicative of the scale of the missile threats in India’s neighborhood. But it also means it is unclear whether India will look to the United States for BMD systems: a U.S. and Russian defense system could be complicated in terms of interoperability, though some analysts argue that it is a sensible option to have different radars and different encryption systems to deal with an array of threats."
"Another problem is that India’s DRDO is already developing its own two-tiered BMD system. In addition, at the lower end, India is purchasing the U.S.-Norwegian NASAMS-2 system, as well as the Indo-Israel MRSAM (a land version of the Barak-8 naval system). Given all this, whether or not there is space for further operational cooperation with the United States within the Indian ballistic missile defense architecture remains to be seen."
See the whole article at https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/where-would-india-fit-in-a-missile-defense-partnership-in-the-indo-pacific/
25/1/19 3:05 PM
the THAAD was offered in lieu of the S-400. However since the main focus was long range air defence and not BMD, THAAD was rejected.
My guess is they will try to speed up induction of the AAD-PDV BMD system in the coming years and if THAAD gets purchased (if at all)it might be a political 'sop' for some sort of quid pro quo on other important stuff..
Israel has provided quite a bit of help by supplying the Arrow system's radar 'Green Pine' to India and allowed DRDO to develop the 'Swordfish' radar for indigenous BMD system based on the Green Pine...
Hi GhalibKabir [at 25/1/19 4:36 PM]
India buying the Russian S-400 or S-500 then passing on the details to ever grateful and reliable Uncle Sam would of course be handy :)
Israel should be a handy help with its 'Green Pine' etc, given Israel is always under threat from Arab and Iranian SRBMs-IRBMs.
I used to have good Youtubes of Indian Advance Air Defence (AAD) tests before 2012, here, https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2012/11/another-successful-advanced-air-defence.html but the Youtubes have since timed-out.
Here is a clear short new Youtube in English on India's proposed multilayered AAD-PDV? BMD - https://youtu.be/Sevt8H1gTzM . Like most system they can only protect limited areas. In this case Delhi and Mumbai.
Regards
Pete
Agni 3 and K 4 are already fitted with 3 MIRVs. The PBCV with 3 payloads and decoys was tested in the last of the Agni 3 tests and then in the K 4 tests.
Unofficially one can confirm if one can find out the no of naval vessels which were dispersed with EOTS , SBT antenna terminals and M-MOTR stationed on their helipads.
Moreover this experience helped to firm up the system requirements of the onboard radars and EOTs aboard the two under construction MRIS vessels and validate the same to some limited extent. This included the capability to calculate the instantaneous impact points of multiple inbound objects and hand over the same for splash point tracking.
One will never go blind without minimum relevant experience etc when developing a major system such as MRIS ships. Too risky.
For > 3 MIRVs however the MRIS will be needed as a primary asset plus another asset under development which I would rather not name
Nope, not going to happen (passing the S-400 secrets that is..).. Considering Uncle Sam has been fobbing India off with sub-standard degraded expensive to boot military equipment. Every single FMS sales to me cements the notion that Uncle Sam is the wretched sort of ally to avoid (somewhat less preferable than bubonic plague and only marginally preferable to Ebola)
Israel is always a help and with whom the word 'reliable' can be used alongside Russia (Russia also gives the 'E' or Export version, but does not behave like a nuisance post sales)
The AAD-PDV is I think meant for large cities and big military installations largely (a tyro's humble guess). I hope they operationalise a few regiments soon.
Hi GhalibKabir [at 29/1/19 11:41 AM]
Yes the US seems to expect unquestioning loyalty from countries before the US sells its second best (lower than domestic use level) weapon systems. Australia has paid high price weapons premiums for the US alliance but the Trump psychotic "deal talk" alliance approach is risking much.
Note discussion of Trumpian approach after reference to "Durban" Australia" 14 seconds at https://youtu.be/emeO0dLW9xA onwards
Australia has been free of US delaying weapon orders during Washington political infighting but non-aligned countries (eg. Indonesia, Pakistan and of course, India) suffer delays.
I think Israel needs the sales because of its high weapon development costs for a small country and cash strapped Russia covets the money even more than usual. Both the US and Russia enjoy power projection through arms sales.
Cheers
Pete
Ramesh Thakur, has written an excellent article "India’s submarine rivalry with China in the second nuclear age" February 24, 2019, The Australian Naval Institute, https://navalinstitute.com.au/indias-submarine-rivalry-with-china-in-the-second-nuclear-age/ where he deftly draws together many concepts including:
"The Arihant is expected to carry 12 theatre ballistic missiles with ranges of 700 to 1,000 kilometres, although the Defence Research and Development Organisation is working on intermediate-range ballistic missiles with ranges of between 3,500 and 5,000 kilometres. But to target cities and forces deep inside China and Pakistan from sea, India will need SLBMs in the 6,000- to 8,000-kilometre range. India isn’t acquiring that sort of capability anytime soon."
...China "not having to worry about periodic re-election by citizens through the ballot box, Chinese leaders are not compelled to factor in short-term electoral compulsions. Instead their defence acquisition decision-making is guided by long-term strategic calculations, requirements, needs and vision. By its very nature, defence acquisition is long term and capital-intensive, and much of it is confidential."
"Second, with perceptions of public corruption a major political issue in India—including at present with respect to the acquisition of 36 Rafale jets from France for the Indian Air Force—plus the need to cater to many different bureaucratic and business as well as political constituencies, India’s defence acquisition decision-making is far inferior to China’s..."
An interesting The National Interest article on India open hatch Arihant near disaster of 2017:
That is "India Did Major Damage to a New $3 Billion Submarine By Leaving a Hatch Open" of April 13, 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/india-did-major-damage-new-3-billion-submarine-leaving-hatch-open-52292 including:
"It’s hard to articulate how major a foul-up this is, but Kyle Mizokami does a good job at Popular Mechanics: Indian authorities ordered the pipe replacement because they “likely felt that pipes exposed to corrosive seawater couldn't be trusted again, particularly pipes that carry pressurized water coolant to and from the ship’s 83 megawatt nuclear reactor.”
For context, a submarine assigned to Britain’s Royal Navy narrowly avoided a complete reactor meltdown in 2012 after the power sources for its coolant system failed."
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