Japan selling its P-1 and C-2 military aircraft to NZ at low prices?

As Japan is new to being an actual seller of military aircraft early success may be elusive. However the desire to seal a deal with New Zealand may mean Japan will offer the P-1 (above) and C-2 (below) at very attractive low prices.

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The Japanese military (Japanese Self Defence Force (JSDF)) seem enthusiastic about selling the C-2 military transport aircraft and P-1 maritime patrol aircraft to foreign buyers.

In October 2016 the Japanese military invited staff officers from 10 countries (USA, Philippines, Cambodia, Indonesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia [but not New Zealand?]) to presentations on the C-2. See this Sankei News article  [in Japanese] which indicates the surprisingly large size of the C-2 that the staff officers (in the photo) are viewing. The C-2 is parked at Iruma Air Base, Japan.

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Jon Grevatt, for IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, reports from Bangkok, 6 January 2017:

“Japan's Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) is offering its P-1 maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) and C-2 transport aircraft to New Zealand...The company, in collaboration with the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD), has provided information to New Zealand in a bid to meet a requirement in the Royal New Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) to replace its Lockheed Martin P-3K2 Orion MPA and C-130 Hercules transport aircraft, which have both been in service since the mid-1960s.

Japan's Nikkei financial newspaper had earlier reported that the Japanese MoD has already responded to New Zealand's request for information (RFI) about both requirements and that following talks it is expected to offer concrete proposals in the first half of 2017..." For whole Jane’s article see.

PETE'S COMMENT

I think New Zealand (NZ) plays it safe and traditional in its military hardware buying patterns. This will work against Japan's:

P-1 MPAs.  Instead, I think NZ buying 4 x P-8 Poseidon MPAs is more likely. The need is to  replace NZ's 6 x P-3K2 Orions. This is noting NZ's main ally, Australia, is buying the P-8. Although NZ has requested information on the P-1 MPA (and indeed C-2) doubts may exist that Japan can efficiently share the information to support the training, maintenance, avionics and sensor suites required, and

C-2 transport aircraft.  I think NZ purchase of  5 x C-130J Super Hercules is more likely. The need is to replace NZ’s 5 older model C-130Hs. Again NZ’s main ally, Australia, is already operating the C-130J. The ability to operate from relatively short, rough airfields on small Pacific Islands (in NZ’s region) may put the C-2 at a disadvantage compared to the C-130J. For distant overseas operations, often shared with Australia, NZ may rely on Australia's C-17s. Or NZ might short-term lease cargo aircraft (for example).

Other weaknesses of the C-2 are that very few have been built (4? see right sidebar) and they have only been operated in Japan’s airforce since March 2016.

However Japan-Kawasaki may be very hungry to sell its first military aircraft to a prime Asia-Pacific customer. So Japan-Kawasaki may provide both aircraft at very low upfront and support prices.

Apologies for seeing New Zealand's needs through such an Australian lens. For more on New Zealand's defence environment see New Zealand's Defence White Paper 2016.

Pete