Indonesia-Russian talks, Amur submarines, fighters & reactors

KRI Nanggala (402) is the second of Indonesia's current Cakra class submarines. 
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Just about the boppyist Submarine Youtube Submarine Matters has ever run (this just happens to be the Bananarama version of Venus and aren't they nice :)  The Youtube shows the many phases of Improved Chang Bogo construction in South Korea. Two of three Improved Chang Bogo (Type 209s) for Indonesia are being built in South Korea. The third Chang Bogo may be built at PT PAL's shipyard at Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia. Notable parts of the Youtube include at: 1 minute - UUVs, including mine detection, 1min 20 secs - installing lead-acid batteries, 2m 30s - installing a Permasyn Motor, 4m 15s - some automatic welding equipment then inspecting weld work, 5m 15s - Indonesia's KRI Cakra (401), 6m 20s - installing diesel engines

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An Improved Kilo (Project 636) at top of diagram. Then two Amurs - the 1650 ton (surfaced) 1650 then the smaller 950 (theoretically squeezing in 10 VLS).
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Since 2007, if not earlier, the Indonesian Navy has considered buying between two and ten Russian Kilo submarines. Sometimes new Kilos are mentioned and sometimes used. However many times the Indonesian Navy wants Russian submarines the broader Indonesian Government (in which the Army is influential) presumably says no. It could also be that Western countries, including the US, dissuade Indonesia from getting too close to the Russians via submarine purchases. Submarines are high price items that would require substantial numbers of Russian naval and technical advisers in Indonesia.

Pressure to acquire more submarines may have been satisfied for the next few years by Indonesia's   order of three Improved Chang Bogo (Type 209s) from South Korea, with deliveries before 2020.

As well as the Chang Bogo buy part of the reason for not buying Kilos has been inadequate aid or lack of easy credit terms from the Russian Government. Low oil prices (Russia's main trade revenue earner) has often made it difficult for Russia and Indonesia to conclude a deal.

However the increasingly militant foreign/defence policies of President Putin may possibly override such financial concerns. Russia may even offer as yet unbuilt and unsold Amur submarines instead of the 30 year old Kilo designs. Indonesia might take the risk of being the first customer for Amurs. Also Amurs may suffer from Russia not yet producing a mature AIP system - a system Indonesia might prefer in expensive new submarines.  

Russia has supplied advanced Sukhoi fighter-bombers to Indonesia since 2003 but only in small numbers.

Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH) October 15, 2015 reported increasing negotiations between Indonesia and Russia in mid October 2015 http://asia.rbth.com/politics/2015/10/15/3_key_areas_in_russia-indonesia_ties_50049.html including:

"Defense

In September 2015, the Indonesian government said it would buy a squadron of Sukhoi Su-35 fighters to replace its outdated US made F-5 Tigers. Jakarta also plans to buy 5 Russian submarines.

Initially Indonesia looked at buying Kilo class diesel electric submarines, but later chose the more advanced Amur class submarine, which is the export version of the Lada class. 

Russia is ready to loan Indonesia $3 billion for these purchases.

According to industry analysts, Indonesia may also be looking to buy medium-range anti-aircraft [surface to air (SAM)] missiles. The country already has a number of Sukhoi fighter jets [Su-27s and Su-30s], Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, BMP-3 amphibious infantry fighting vehicles, one BTR-80 wheeled amphibious armored personnel carrier and Kalashnikov AK-101 and AK-102 rifles.

Nuclear energy

In June 2015, the countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the construction of large nuclear reactors and floating nuclear power stations.

In an interview with RBTH Indonesia, [Indonesia's] ambassador to Russia, Djauhari Oratmangun, said nuclear power plants could help meet Indonesia’s growing demand for electricity...."

ANONYMOUS COMMENTS

Anonymous, over the last two days, has made some very interesting comments on these Indonesia-Russia negotiations:

"Indonesia's extravagant wish to buy 10 Russian Kilos was, as far as I can tell, driven by its Defence Minister [General (Ret.) Ryamizard Ryacudu] who seems to be a pretty hardcore Russophile. Cooler-headed Indonesian observers I talked with says that Indonesia may buy two Improved Kilo, but there is nothing concrete about that and it might be zero given the current Indonesian economic weakness.

The $3 billion in the RBTH article matches what Indonesian sources said, so that part seems correct.

Indonesian military officials and politicians, egged by Russia, have often stated that they are going to buy this or that from Russia without consideration on what they're going to use it for or how they are going to pay for it. There is a small but vocal Russophile faction, but most of the time the sane majority prevails and those statements were quietly ignored. However, once in a while they do throw a bone at the Russophiles to placate and retain their political support.

I rate the Su-35 procurement as likely, and the 5 Amur submarine procurement as unlikely. A half-half compromise of 8 Su-35 and 2 Amur is also possible. Militarily that is nuts, but hey, thats politics. Getting both is financially impossible and irresponsible. Even Russian credit doesn't stretch that far.

Russia also makes lots of noise about selling nuclear power plants to Indonesia. This is actually pretty plausible. Despite the Ring of Fire [earthquake-volcano zone] location, the physics of plate tectonics actually means that there are several geologically stable spots in Indonesia. Some of these spots are sufficiently inland or sheltered to be safe from tsunamis. 

Whether Indonesia will build utility scale nuclear power plants and who gets the contract remains to be seen though. I am quite certain that Indonesia will build them eventually though. Indonesia will run out of natural gas within 20 years and of coal within 50 years and despite all the talk about renewables, the actual growth rate of renewable energy use in Indonesia is not enough.

However, in the near term, the only confirmed plan to build a nuclear reactor in Indonesia is the 30 MW experimental reactor in Serpong to replace the 30 year old experimental reactor of similar rating (used to make medical isotopes and breeding new rice variants, among other things, but not actually connected to the power grid) that is reaching its end of service life. Russia is likely to get this project, but this is still far far away from an actual nuclear power plant. 

Russian media has this habit of talking big, but the actual realization is often much smaller and more uncertain than they make it to be."

Pete