China Warns Russia: No Nuking Ukraine

Xi's "no limits" partnership with Putin apparently has limits when it comes to the War  disturbing China's European business connections and Putin threatening nuclear war against Ukraine.

With regard to the latter see The Guardian's July 5, 2023 article Kremlin denies China's president urged Putin not to use nuclear arms in Ukraine.

China, as early as February 2023, has been urging Russia not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly announced in "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" on February 24, 2023:

"8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought. The threat or use of nuclear weapons should be opposed. Nuclear proliferation must be prevented and nuclear crisis avoided. China opposes the research, development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country under any circumstances."

Purging Progozhin's Empire: Except Africa & Catering

Subsequet to my July 2/3, 2023 article New Russian Troll Factory Helping Trump Campaign 

comes The Guardian's July 5, 2023 article 'He Live by the troll, he dies by the troll': Putin takes on Progozhin's business empire.

New Russian Troll Factory Helping Trump Campaign

Putin is quickly replicating Prigozhin's propaganda troll factory that was a key tool assisting Trump in Trump's 2016 Election win. Officials indicated as long as their  anonymity was protected. 

Part purged poor Wagner leader Prigozhin has lost 3 major contracts paid for by Russia, including:

-  the Russia wide Internet Research Agency "Troll Factory" contract that was essential in contacting Americans with fake social media stories boosting Trump's 2016 Election win, and 2020 almost won

-  Prigozhin’s Patriot Media group, which until lately pushed a strongly Russian nationalist, pro-Putin line

- as well as Prigozhin’s Concord catering and construction company which supplied the Russian Armed Forces

The still weakened Putin is finding other friendly Warlord/Oligarchs to run these activities - especially a new Russian Troll network for Trump for President 2024.

Why, in particular, would Putin want to help Trump?

If Putin loyalist Trump (long financed by Russia) again became President, Trump can be counted on to remove US dominated Western backing for Ukraine's war effort. 

Thereby permitting Russia to at last beat Ukraine.

Budget Quarantined Australian Submarine Agency Created

Mainly with the developing objective of keeping the huge AUKUS nuclear submarine budget separate from regular Australian annual defence budget measures an Australian Defence Department Media Release, July 1, 2023, reported the:

LAUNCH OF THE AUSTRALIAN SUBMARINE AGENCY

[on July 1, 2023]

The Albanese Government has taken the next step towards delivering Australia’s conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines, with the launch of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA).

With its official establishment today, the ASA will be responsible and accountable for the management and oversight of the nuclear-powered submarine program. 

The Albanese Government is pleased to announce the appointment of Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead as the Agency’s inaugural Director-General.

As chief of the Nuclear-Powered Submarine Taskforce, Vice Admiral Mead demonstrated his leadership and judgement in supporting the establishment of the pathway to acquire this critical capability through the AUKUS partnership.

The ASA has over 350 staff from the Australian Defence Force and Australian Public Service, including many who have transitioned from the Nuclear-Powered Submarine Taskforce and others who have joined since the Government’s announcement in March 2023. It is expected to almost double to more than 680 staff over the next year, drawing on a diverse skillset required to deliver this significant endeavour.

It will be headquartered in Canberra, with personnel located across the country and overseas in the United States and United Kingdom, working with communities, unions, industry and governments to deliver the nuclear-powered submarine program.

The ASA, which has been established by Executive Order, is a non-corporate Commonwealth entity within the Defence portfolio and will report to the Minister for Defence.

Quotes attributable to Deputy Prime Minister, the Hon Richard Marles MP:

"This is a significant day, marking our next step towards the acquisition of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines, which is the single biggest investment in our defence capability in our history.

"The Australian Submarine Agency will be critical in delivering a game-changing capability for the defence of Australia and security of our region.

“I congratulate Vice Admiral Mead on his appointment as inaugural Director-General and all members of the Agency for the work they have done to date, and the work they will do to deliver this capability and keep Australians safe.”

Quotes attributable to Minister for Defence Industry, the Hon Pat Conroy, MP:

“The Australian Submarine Agency will be vital in developing the capability needed to operate our nuclear-powered submarines.

“Our acquisition of conventionally-armed nuclear-powered submarines will generate 20,000 jobs for the Australian economy.

“The Agency will play a critical role not only in growing and developing the Australian industrial base to deliver conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines, but will also strengthen our partnership with the US and the UK, to deliver a stronger, more secure Australia and Indo-Pacific region.”

Quotes attributable to Director-General Australian Submarine Agency, Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead:

“I am proud to be leading the Australian Submarine Agency and recognise the significance of the task ahead as we deliver Australia’s conventionally-armed nuclear-powered submarines.

“This nation-building program will be the most transformative industrial and technical endeavour in our history.

“I am committed to continuing to work with our AUKUS partners and all Australian stakeholders to deliver Australia’s fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.”

ENDS

B. Collision With Seafloor Destroyed Titan?

On June 26, 2023 I looked at "A. Mixture of Pressure Hull Materials Failed Titan?" in a spontaneous way. 

My alternate "B." way of thinking is that:

-  after an event happened while descending
-  like fire, perhaps with rapid gas release (too fast for the crew to put on their respirators) 
-  causing major interruption to steering
-  caused Titan to hit the seafloor
-  almost instantly distorting Titan's pressure hull
-  in turn causing the USN recorded implosion.  

Large portions of Titan are being retrieved from the seafloor in record time. These and smaller bits of Titan and even the remains of the 5 crew, may reveal why Titan failed. 

Under theory B. the cause might originate from battery management failure (especially from more fire prone Lithium-ion batteries) causing fire might be discernable due to burn marks on Titan parts and sadly on human material.

But as this video here (from 2:05 to 3:15) illustrates the beginning of compression of air (similar to a diesel piston) can cause sparking, fire and explosion in just a few milliseconds. At almost the same instant implosion of a submersible is proceeding. A few milliseconds later another explosion “pushes out” the implosion, scattering a submersible’s bits over a relatively wide area. This implosion-then-explosion was presumably the one event heard by the USN IUSS seafloor sensors.

All this complicates the job of examiners studying a Titan fire line of enquiry.

However, if enough battery material can be recovered, a study of its eventual chemical state and other Titan parts might reveal whether fire was caused by:

-  a runaway battery heat buildup and/or
-  a spark igniting a release of battery gas, or
-  igniting Titan's oxygen rich environment

all preceding Titan hitting the seafloor and then almost instant implosion. 

The carbon fiber (for all its possible technical pressure hull failure faults) might also be useful in revealing any prior melting that was different from any burn marks of flash caused be implosion. 

Yet, contrary to the hitting the seafloor theory - it is puzzling that such Large parts (like the part below) have been recovered rather than being imploded-exploded into tiny pieces. This may suggest a less rapid implosion occurred near the surface, say 500 meters down - and then the pieces sank to the seafloor. That would be more in line with theory A. Mixture of Pressure Hull Materials Failed Titan?" in a spontaneous way.

So this whole issue remains a contradictory intellectual challenge, that sadly involves loss of life.

US Reaper Variants for India, including SeaGuardians.

Gessler, on June 24, 2023, provided very interesting comments on the following: 

It seems India is going ahead with the purchase of 31 x MQ-9B Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) variants from the US. The largest operator would be the Indian Navy with 15 x SeaGuardian (aka Mariner) variants. Two SeaGuardians had already been leased to the Indian Navy since November 2020 for operational testing. 

The Indian Army Aviation corps and the Air Force will each operate 8 of the SkyGuardian Reaper variant.

Note that these figures are as approved by the Indian MoD's Defence Acquisitions Council (DAC). The final deal may or may not undergo some changes once the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) goes through it before releasing finances. 

I'd say the SeaGuardians will be a huge step to give the Indian Navy truly persistent ISR capabilities across the Indian Ocean region. The MQ-9B, like India's P-8I maritime patrol aircraft, should be capable of fully networking with partner assets in the region. The SeaGuardian should also be capable of:

-  ASW roles such as deploying sonobuoys around a contact shared by the P-8I,
-  helping to prevent armed incursions by sea from Pakistani terrorists (seen in the 2008 Mumbai attacks) and
-  oversight and armed protection of Indian tankers and other ships transitting the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

I've just read the very wide ranging Joint Statement from the White House written following Indian Prime Minister Modi's June 2023 visit to Washington. It seems the program also includes a domestic assembly/production clause which means all of the MQ-9B Reaper UAV variants may not come from the US and instead some might be assembled locally in India, with a degree of domestic industrial contribution.

There's also mention, in the Joint Statement, of building a Comprehensive Global MRO (Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul) facility in the country. This means not only the Indian-operated UAVs but also those operated by other Indo-Pacific partners in the area may head there for servicing their UAV fleets instead of going all the way to the continental United States. It's not known if the MRO facility includes services only for the MQ-9B or for other UAV types as well. 

It serves to know that an MRO facility meant for P-8I surveillance aircraft is already up and running in the India. 

There's also programs being implemented for expanding the size and scope, in India, of Ship Repair agreements for US Navy assets deployed in the region. 

Gessler
June 24, 2023

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In the Defense Updates January 2021 video, here and above, the MQ-9B SeaGuardian's ASW capabilities and the P-8's roles are described.
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