Long Range Japanese ("peaceful") Missiles Continued

1st Published Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Japan ICBM capable M-5 launched into space.

-

UPI's Martin Sieff reported November 5, 2008 that:

-

WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- The Japanese government is slowly moving towards a decision to launch its own early warning ballistic missile defense satellite, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported Wednesday [Nov 5, 2008].

The Tokyo newspaper said it had received access to a draft plan for ballistic missile defense drawn up by the secretariat of the Japanese government's headquarters for space development strategy. The report calls for an assessment on the value of deploying an early warning satellite that could monitor any potentially hostile missile launch.

In addition, the draft plan recommends carrying out a feasibility study on launching more civilian comsats -- communications satellites.

The plan also suggests Japan should start building smaller short-range and medium-range missiles for its Defense Forces, in addition to the bigger H-2A missiles currently in use.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said this language may be an indirect way of pushing through approval to build the GX missile that has become a matter of some controversy. Old-fashioned bureaucrats who are opposed to Prime Minister.

-

Taro Aso's drive to develop a military space capability for Japan have opposed the GX project, and they managed to get the Space Activities Commission of the nation's Education Ministry, a stronghold for the old, cautious, pure research, non-military tradition in Japanese official space policymaking, to take a position opposing GX development.
-
"While many question the need to go ahead with the GX development project, (this plan) is -tantamount to approving it," one official told the newspaper.
-

However, the draft plan looks set to be smoothly approved and then implemented as national policy within the national budget for Fiscal Year 2009. The Yomiuri Shimbun said that at a meeting of the space development strategy secretariat Tuesday, it sent the draft plan on to be finally agreed upon at a second meeting to be held Nov. 27."

-

Comment

H2

This rocket has no direct military missile value given its weight (445 tons) and with its strap-on booster configuration. However launches of this rocket give Japan ongoing experience in the use of the small and medium sized solid fuel boosters - handy for future development of missiles smaller missiles than the M-5. Wiki suggests "The H-IIA (H2A [or H-2A]) is a family of liquid-fuelled rockets providing an expendable launch system for the purpose of launching satellites into geostationary orbit."

It is manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA. Launches occur at the Tanegashima Space Center. "

The H-2A has been launched 14 times since 2001 - only one failure - last launch February 23, 2008. Its maximum payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is 15 tons and to Geo Stationary Orbit 6 tons.

-

M-5

A rocket ideal for conversion to an ICBM is Japan's variously called M-V, M5, M-5 or Mu-5,

At 30.8m high, 2.5m diameter and up to 139 tons it is clearly too big for ICBM duty however those specs are for 3 or 4 stages. Just two stages of a (say) 2m diameter scale down may be sufficient to hit Japan's most immediate enemies North Korea and China.

When one looks at Japan's experience, since 1966 in building the Mu range of booster rockets (with 7 smaller rockets before the M-5) Japan's ability to build manageable IRBMs and ICBMs is obvious.

-

It may be coincidental or intentional that Japan progressed from "strap-on" boosters (associated with peaceful use) in the earlier Mu series (Wiki description) to an ICBM like configuration for the M-5.

-
The GX will move further in the direction of a space rocket as it is projected to weigh 210 tons and has a liquid fuel upper stage.

More on Japan's very short term nuclear weapons potential Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium of April 29, 2008.

-
Shorter Range Missiles

Only old figures jump out about shorter range Japanese missiles. The Japanese don't want to appear offensive, appaer to stress reliance on more powerful US forces and don't wish to be seen as competing with the US' near monopoly in missile production and sales.

MHI produces various anti-ship missiles including Type-88 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM) and Type-90 SSM for the Japanese military

-

Specifications 1988 - Type 88 SSM1990 and Type 90 (SSM-1B), 5.1m long, 660 kg, Turbojet,

Maximum effective range - Type 88 SSM 180 km , - Type 90 (SSM-1B) 150 km
Inertial guidance + active radar homing
Deployment - Type 88 SSM = 320 (?), Type 90 (SSM-1B) = About 40 as of 1994.

MHI also licence builds the US Patriot missile (see MHI site)


Pete

Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium

The Japanese M5 rocket on launch. Capable of being modified into an ICBM

From Australia Fairfax news stable comes this article in April 26, 2008:

-
"Between the Pacific Ocean coastline and the rich farmland of Rokkasho, in northern Japan, stands a vast and controversial monument to man's triumph over nature.

-
The 12.7 trillion yen Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant, which can recycle up to 800 tonnes of nuclear waste a year for reuse, will launch the pacifist nation into a new era of nuclear power when it commences operations in July.

-

Trade Minister Akira Amari has hailed it as "the future" of sustainable energy for Japan, which has virtually no natural resources and takes a third of its energy from 55 nuclear power plants.

-

...Unlike Japan's conventional nuclear power plants, the Rokkasho complex will not burn nuclear fuel. Instead, it will recycle it by taking spent fuel from conventional plants and separating out usable elements such as uranium and plutonium from waste. Japan Nuclear Fuel aims to produce as many as four tonnes of recycled plutonium - roughly equal to 500 of the bombs dropped on Nagasaki - for reuse each year.

-
Protestors say that because Japan, which has a "no surplus plutonium" policy, has yet to repatriate and use 37 tonnes of plutonium that it sent for recycling at European plants in the 1990s, the facility at Rokkasho is at best a spectacular waste of money and at worst a dubious exercise in building plutonium supplies. As it is, the mechanism needed to convert the plutonium into reusable pellet form will not be ready until 2012."

-

Comments

-

Japan's nuclear capabilities are a future concern for Australia and Japan having access to greater amounts of plutonium are a more immediate worry.

-

Japan already has a quick nuclear "breakout" capacity in the form of more than 7 tonnes of Plutonium (the nuclear explosive of choice). Japan also has the capability to build ICBM from the existing M5 rocket.

-

Japan's currently pacifist constitution has not stopped it from building one of the strongest navies and airforces in the region. The Japanese also suffers the potential threat of North Korea which may eventually a short IRBM flight away. US protection may not be forever so Japan is quietly leaving its own nuclear weapon options open. This may be one reason Japan appears to be willing to wear the environmental risks of operating the Rokkasho plant.
-
-
Pete

Saudi Ballistic Missiles - Modernisation of Missile Force?

The Saudis may still have around 50 of these China provided
 CSS-2 (aka DF-3A) IRBMs, designed for nuclear warheads.
--- 

The current political instability in Pakistan and regional tension over Iran's nuclear aspirations suggests its time to look at the shadows that the media and Government policy-makers ignore.

In 1987-88 Saudi Arabia secretly purchased 40 to 60 long-range CSS-2 (aka DF-3A) ballistic missiles from China. CSS-2s where specifically designed by China to carry nuclear warheads (ranging up to 3 megatons) but China removed the warheads from those missiles sold to Saudi Arabia.

The missiles have a range of around 3,000km and a payload up to 2,150 kg. The missiles where deployed in 1990 at two Saudi Arabian military bases, al-Sulayyil and al-Karj (al-Jafr), 500km and 100km south of Riyadh, respectively. Each site is reported to include four to six concrete launch pads.

When sold to the Saudis the missiles were believed to have an accuracy of only 1km Circular Error of Probability (CEP). Because the CSS-2 missiles still may not be accurate enough to be used effectively against point targets with conventional munitions, analysts speculate that Saudi Arabia may have envisaged (or still intends) to have nuclear warheads for the missiles.

PETE COMMENT

Why haven’t we heard that the Saudis bought or possess around 50 Chinese made ballistic missiles? Perhaps just as the US ignored Saudi nationals, with possible al Qaeda associations, entering the US before 9/11 the US may have decided to ignore these missiles when deployed in 1990 because they are "safely Saudi". Maybe its assumed the Saudis can never bite American interests.

LATER MACHINATIONS

China has reportedly approached the Saudis with offers to sell much more modern and accurate 600-km range CSS-6 and 1800-km range DF-21 (CSS-5) solid-fueled missiles. In 2013 I wrote futher about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and Saudi tied aid. 

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia is examining the prospect of raising the level of its strategic relations with nuclear armed Pakistan. The Saudis have accelerated talks with Islamabad for the purchase of Pakistani weapons as well as joint military and strategic projects. Riyadh may be seeking to exploit Pakistan's expertise in missiles and nuclear weapons.