February 15, 2017

Already a submarine named TRUMP

President Trump the Tweeter would be unaware that a successful submarine carried his name. Above is the Trump submarine badge/coat of arms. Note the sails and hull of the Trump "Ship of State" on top of the badge (Artwork courtesy Wikipedia). 
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HMS Trump in 1945 before major upgrades (Photo courtesy Wikipedia)
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The heavily converted HMS Trump in Sydney Harbour 1961 after many UK "Super-T" (GUPPY like) changes (Photo courtesy Flickr)
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President Trump has not had to wait for a US nuclear propelled carrier or SSBN to be named after him, because there's already been a submarine named Trump.

I speak, of course, of UK Royal Navy HMS Trump which was launched in 1944 and presciently named "Trump" 2 years before The Donald's actual birth in 1946. HMS Trump was one of a relatively large class (for Britain) of  "T" or "Triton" class submarines mainly built in WWII.

HMS Trump mainly served from Fremantle, Western Australia, 1944-45 in the Asia-Pacific war against Japan. In four patrols in 1945, north of Australia, Trump sunk a Japanese guardboat, a sailing vessel, two coasters, a tanker, a cargo vessel and an army cargo ship.

After the war Trump continued on in a RN submarine squadron stationed in Sydney Harbour.  Trump received UK "Super T" (similar to GUPPY style) upgrades inspired by the revolutionary design of captured German Type XXI submarines. See the dramatic change (above) between Trump’s "old T" 1945 appearance and Trump's streamlined "Super-T" 1961 exterior.

Trump was scrapped in the UK in 1971. Hence a submarine with a successful war service, from Australian bases, accidentally carries the name of:

A.  America's top Reality TV Star, Twitter Star, Wrestlemania Guru, Professional Billionaire
      Boss and part-time President, 

OR 

B.  maybe that of a Superior Card.

The UK HMS Trump's career shows that there are other powers Australia, did, can, or could, rely on. The US should not take Australia for granted as a loyal servant.

If the Trump Administration runs two rustbelt-white driven terms and Trump continues his failing  "performance" and "leadership" in:

-  foreign
-  defence, and
-  intelligence

policy arenas there are other countries that Australia might need to rely on.

Half of Southeast Asia (eg. the Philippines) is steadily looking to China.

China is Australia's main trade partner that has already bought the Port of Darwin.

Pete

February 14, 2017

Possible Arrangement of Lithium-ion Batteries in Japanese Submarines

Diagram of possible shape of a Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) for a Japanese submarine. Note its 8 cells are in blue. This is from a January 2017 article on wispywood2344’s blog, http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/archives/2017-01.html .
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Submarine Matters makes a feature of charting the development of Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs), and other technologies, in Japanese submarines. The Japanese Navy (JMSDF) is very likely to be the first navy that will openly and operationally use LIBs. This will first be in Japan's first Soryu Mark 2 submarine (known as 27SS, Build no. 8126, Pennant no. SS-511) see SORYU TABLE. 27SS might be commissioned in 2019-2020 or later.

If Japan successfully uses LIBs for years, with few problems, Japan’s Western submarine competitors (Germany’s TKMS, Sweden’s SAAB-Kockums and France’s DCNS) may also develop LIBs for use from the late 2020s.

As Australia’s future DCNS Shortfins will have an almost completely new electrical system (along with most of its other internal fittings) the Shortfin might be one of the first diesel-electric (conventional) submarines to be built around LIBs. Australia therefore could rely on LIBs to provide extended, fully submerged, range. In support of this contention is the fact Australia never publicly expressed interest in AIP for its future submarines under the SEA 1000 selection process.

Japanese testing of LIBs technology may have occurred on one, two or all three Harushio class submarines that were converted to trainings submarines and then perhaps propulsion testbeds. Those three submarines were renumbered TSS-3606, TSS-3607 and TSS-3601 (see Harushio “Vessels” Table). It is even more likely that Oyashio class TSS-3608 was partly converted to a LIBs testbed.

Comments made anonymously, 21-28 January 2017 indicate that LIB arrangements are very difficult to know with any certainty:

From the published information available it is difficult to work out how old Lead-acid Batteries (LABs) were moved around in a submarine. LIB moving arrangements are even more difficult to guess.

Suggested Model

The arrangement of LIBs in a future Japanese submarine is aimed at promoting safety and efficiency. The heavy LIBs module (weighing 770kg) shown in the diagram above must be securely anchored on a pedestal. This anchoring may take place as follows.
-  First, a battery module consisted of 8 single cells (see diagram), where the bottom two positions
    are empty, is placed on the pedestal.
-  Next, the battery module is anchored to the pedestal by bolts using the bottom empty positions.
   After anchoring a battery module, 2 single cells are fixed in the bottom two positions. That is why
   the bottom two cells seem to be convertible spaces.
-  Further provision for anchoring may be:
   =  more spacing outside the modules, including an accessible central aisle on the keel
   =  the LIBs' front facing the aisle, and
   =  a 6 by 6 row of LIBs arranged in clusters on each side of the aisle.

Perceptions Supporting Model 

In support of the above anchoring model is Japanese Industrial Standard (JIS) For LIBs Installation In Surface Ships. One of the requirements for installation is ”battery systems shall be anchored to robust structural elements of the ship by bolts and nuts.”

Also significant are pictures of prototype LIBs of the Japanese Navy (JMSDF) which clearly need a firm installation process. But any positions/holes for bolting outside of the battery module are not apparent. This strongly suggests bolting is conducted inside and at the base of the battery module. Adequate space for bolting is needed - then two single cells can be placed at the bottom of the module.

Batteries on pedestals have the downsides of a higher center of gravity (maybe increasing vibration and top-heaviness) and may expand any stray magnetic field. But mounting LIBs on pedestals has the benefits of providing better access for installation, maintenance and removal.

One should qualify the above comments on LIB arrangements. The comments are reliant on published sources and Japan’s first fully LIB submarine (27SS, see SORYU TABLE) hasn’t even been completed yet.

What Is Known About Old LAB Arrangements Offers Little Help

Looking at a reference of LAB arrangements on old Oberon submarines suggests ambiguity about how batteries are placed or removed. This may or may not take place using both vertical and horizontal hydraulic jacks [1]. Then, there is no the pedestal for LABs. Also battery modules for LABs are arranged in a fully closed packing manner. Whether LIBs use the same arrangement is an unknown.

[1] old Canadian C.F.’O’ CLASS SUBMARINES (TRAINING NOTEBOOK ELECTRICAL) provides detailed information on LABs in Oberon class (aka "O boats") subs, used by Canada, Australia and, of course the UK (designer and builder) etc, see: http://jproc.ca/rrp/rrp2/oberon_battery_and_electrical.pdf [about 5 MB] In particular see Page 11.26. Where it states: “C. Cell Lifiting Gear: Sick [that’s what it says!] cells are removed from batteries by cell lifting gear . Each submarine carries its own lifting gear.” also see:
-  Page 11.2 (Fig.11.01 Battery compartment – typical arrangement) and
-  Page 11.16 (Fig.11.06 Arrangement of cell group water cooling connections)

What We Can Conclude About Japan’s New Submarine LIB Arrangements From 2020 Onwards

First, it has taken a long time to develop LIBs and great deal of effort toward establishment of their safety and reliability. A modern quality control system, utilising a theoretical approach, assisted by computer simulations, provides guidance on any potential for battery failure and helps predict average battery life. But, these theoretical results still need validation through practical use and experimentation, which takes time.

Second, converting a battery system, from traditional LABs (used for up to 120 years by submarine countries) to LIBs, is a difficult process. This replacement process includes:
-  elimination of LABs’ safety ventilation system and water cooling system,
-  total conversion of electrical system (including totally new wiring, switches and
   battery/electrical control computers, etc)
-  installation of the LIBs' safety gas cylinder and piping for fire extinguishing system, and
-  as a submarine's batteries in total weigh hundreds of tons re-balancing the whole submarine is
   necessary, partly achieved by rearranging some fuel and buoyancy tanks. 

So, it is preferable to build a new submarine design (like the DCNS (future) Shortfin) around LIBs rather than retrofitting LIBs in a LABs submarine.

By Anonymous sources and Pete

February 13, 2017

China may be adopting Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Submarine


It is possible China's 335 kg WB-LYP10000AHA Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) is being developed for (or already in) China's latest built Yuan class submarines. China is also marketing this battery to Russia (presumably for Russian Kalina submarine) and to other countries.
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The Yuan class diesel-electric submarine. Most Yuans probably have Stirling AIP (and almost certainly standard lead-acid batteries). The latest Yuans being contructed may have LIBs.
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The Japanese Navy (JMSDF) appears to be the first navy that will openly and operationally use Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs). However China is likely to have carried out extensive trialling and assessment of LIBs mainly on converted Song class submarines. China might also be testing LIBs on Yuan class submarines instead of or in addition to the Yuan's Stirling AIP. New Yuans, under construction, may have LIBs.

China's Winston Battery company (aka "Everspring" and "Thunder Sky") might be  developing Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for submarines. Alternatively Winston might merely be marketing the idea (see) of LIBs for submarine, to attract foreign joint ventures. Russia may be a direct joint venturer. Swedish, French or German firms may be participating  (through the European dual-use loophole) in joint ventures assisting China to develop LIBs for submarine. 


Chinese marketing of LIBs at: "Winston Battery WB-LYP10000AHA in large submarines" states at 

"The technical information gives some ideas about the size of the battery pack for the Yuan-class of diesel-electric submarines to be equipped with an air-independent propulsion system (AIP) powered from large battery banks. 

The battery pack consists of 960 pcs of the WB-LYP10000AHA  cells making the total energy of 31 MWh. The lithium battery is saving some 260 tons of weight against the original lead-acid pack. With this pack the Yuan-class (B-class) diesel-electric submarine can drive 3,300 nautical miles or it can stay under water for 800 hours (33 days). This indicates the average onboard consumption of the submarine when not moving is some 38kW/h. Posted 2 years ago.

On possible Russian development of LIBs for submarine see Submarine Matters China into Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Submarine - Can Russia Keep Up? of February 2, 2016.

Pete

February 10, 2017

Lack of Swedish Success Selling Submarines to Scandinavia and Poland, Japan?

Pete distributed Submarine Matters' Report to Donors, Germany’s Joint Submarine Order Won the Norwegian Order on February 6, 2017.

ONEIL PADILLA’S COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS

 After reading it this Report ONeil Padilla offered some comments and questions:

1.  “The Norwegians chose well but not hardly surprising because of their History with Germans subs has been a very positive one."

2. "I still think the Swedes are chance with their A26 for Poland because SAAB are throwing in everything into it, even local construction as an incentive."


3.  "Could the Dutch go Japanese? SAAB once again teamed up with Damen to get leg up or some interest in their A26 design from the Dutch.”

PETE'S RESPONSE 

1.  Indeed the Norwegians have long been customers for German built submarines:

-  This goes all the way to three A-class subs built in Germany and delivered to the Royal Norwegian
    Navy in 1914. 

-  Germany has continuously supplied subs to Norway since 1964 when Norway began
   commissioning West German Kobben class. Norway later resold some Kobbens to Denmark
   and Poland.

-  The German Ula class to Norway 1989 - present.  

2.  Sweden has not supplied many subs to its fellow Scandinavian countries or Poland. Sweden did
     lease a Nacken class to Denmark for four years. Sweden has done much better selling used subs to
     Singapore and the new Collins to Australia.

The Scandinavian Viking class project in which Sweden would likely have been main designer collapsed in 1990s-2000s.

The A26 built by Sweden's SAAB-Kockums would likely be very expensive because it is a wholly new design and Sweden has only two orders, for the Swedish Navy itself. The A26 would therefore have difficulty competing with the established TKMS 212A (known as the Todaro class in Italy) design. 

Ten 212As have been built and 4 more are planned (2 each for the German and Italian navies). With Norway's initial indication it will buy 4 this means 18 x 212s. This provides increased economies of scale, resulting in lower costs/lower price.

The main reason for lack Swedish success in European sales seems to be NATO alliance (see Members) political solidarity, push to equipment standardisation  and multi-decade strength of Germany's submarine industry:
-  Sweden's neutrality rather than joining NATO doesn't help Sweden.
-  Finland, though neutral, won't buy subs from anyone.
-  for submarines the great power political pressure and price competition from Germany and France
   towards European buyers seems stronger than the much smaller Swedish government and
   economy's

The NATO reason especially impacts Poland as Poland realises it is too geographically close to the common enemy of NATO, which is Russia.

3.  NATO country, the Netherlands would also likely buy from a NATO regional alliance country. Japan offers the Netherlands no equivalent regional alliance reason to buy from Japan - a Asia-Pacific power Japan.

Another reason why NATO countries buy from NATO exporters is equipment interoperability concerns. This includes having complex weapons systems (eg. German and future Norwegian 212s) with similar performance characterists under the usual joint command scenarios.

See Kevin's comments recorded in this September 7, 2015 article which seem to indicate the Netherlands may tend to buy subs from Germany.

BUT, Japan builds good submarines of the size the Netherlands may be interested in. If Japan offered subs for competive prices and terms Japan may have a chance.


Pete

February 6, 2017

February 2017 Report: Germany’s Joint Submarine Order Won the Norwegian Order

Hi Donors

I've just emailed Submarine Matters' February 2017 Report: Germany’s Joint Submarine Order Won the Norwegian Order out to you, as a WORD attachment. Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.


Regards

Peter Coates
Director
Submarine Matters International

February 2, 2017

Duterte invites China to patrol southern Philippine seas shared with Malaysia & Indonesia

COMMENT

Over the last 24 hours Philippine President Duterte has exceeded even Trump's best brainstorms by inviting Chinese ships to patrol the Philippines southern shared seas against pirate, Islamist and separatist activities. Major problems with Duterte's invitation include:

-  Chinese patrols would also be close to, or in, Malaysian and Indonesian claimed waters in the still 
   unnegotiated Tri-border area (see map below).

-  Undersea oil exists nearby, especially in the Malaysia versus Indonesia disputed Ambalat parcel.

-  Duterte's invitation to China may therefore increase regional (territorial and oil claim) tensions
   between the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia and with China. 

-  any Chinese ships patrolling would act as a potential wedge-threat against Australian shipping
   trade and strategic connections with southeast and northeast Asia (including US and Japanese
   bases). 

-  even though only Chinese Coast Guard vessels might do the patrolling. The long range "Coast 
   Guard" ships are armed and weigh up to 12,000 tons like destroyer-cruisers (see photo below).

-  Where the Chinese Coast Guard goes the Chinese Navy (PLAN) may back it up and follow it. 

-  Chinese Coast Guard patrol aircraft and helicopters, may be next. They would need bases in the
   southern Philippines.

-  Duterte's invitation comes at a bad time of rapidly decreasing US international and Asia-Pacific
   regional popularity, triggered by Trump's statements and notorious Tweets.

Dutertes February 2017 suggestion basically invites China to patrol seas in the still unnegotiated "Tri-border area". This includes seas the Philippines shares with Malaysia (Sulu Sea) and with Indonesia (Celebes Sea) (Map above courtesy Stratfor). 
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ARTICLE

Here is a small part of Kinling Lo of the South China Morning Post's, February 1, 2017, article: 

“China ‘likely to agree to Duterte’s request for anti-piracy patrols”

...China is likely to agree to Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s request to sending sea patrols to help stop growing crime by Islamist militants along the southern coast of the Philippines.
Duterte said earlier in a speech to newly promoted Filipino generals that he had asked China to “patrol the international waters without necessarily intruding into the territorial waters of countries” in the southern waters of the island country in response to abducting sailors and attacking vessels in waters off the southern Philippines.

...Zhu Xin, associate professor at Beijing’s University of International Relations, believed China would again make a supportive gesture by agreeing to Duterte’s request.
“It is obvious that China feels positive about Duterte,” Zhu said. “Furthermore, China would probably consider the terrorist problem a regional one rather than only considering its relations with the Philippines.”

...Xu Liping, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, shared the view that it was “highly possible” that China would respond positively to the deal as it had already cooperated with other Asian countries like Malaysia to fight terrorism.

BACKGROUND - Chinese "Coast Guard" Ships

China is building and converting very large "coast guard" ships that are more tools of long range regional power projection. Participating in patrolling southern Philippine water soon may be Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ship 2901. This is one of China's largest coast guard ship class, along with sister ship 3901, displacing 10,000-12,000 tons. Built in a Shanghai Jiangan Shipyard by China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). For photo and comments see China Defense Blog more details in Popular Mechanics

China is also modifying modifies 2,000 ton Type 053 frigates into coast guard ships, including CCG 1002 and 1003Globasecurity lists several classes of CCG ships of different tonnages - all carrying the "Hai Jing" prefix which could be translated as "Chinese ship" . 

Pete