About subs, military/naval, nuclear weapons & enrichment; political issues. New Aussie subs have been just talk since 2009. The Collins LOTE 2028-2040 might help sub availability temporarily. UUVs help. POTUS 2031 may cancel AUKUS Virginias as USN needs all SSNs to the 2040s. Australian Gov ignoring higher priority US Columbia SSBN production is minimising Virginia production until 2043. Shawn C is an excellent author. Indians Gessler & Karthik have been warned off by governments.
Turnbull and his Coalition Government's popularity is dropping (above poll results in mid February 2016). Should he go to an early election while he is popular? (Polling from Fairfax-Ipsos via Sydney Morning Herald).
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The Australian Liberal-National Coalition Government of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is suffering from a low revenue problem. This makes it difficult to pay for important popular social programs. There may be a 50% chance of an early Election - probably in April 2016.
Reasons for low revenue include:
- lower demand from China for Australian coal and iron ore means there has been a sharp reduction in Australian State and Federal tax revenue. The reduction being mainly in income tax, company tax and mining royalties.
- this means that the Turnbull Government must find sources of revenue elsewhere. The Turnbull Government explored collecting revenue by increasing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from the current 10% to 15%.
- however a GST increase is unpopular with the public, opposition parties, and unpopular with Members of Parliament in Turnbull's own Liberal party.
- so Turnbull is now exploring less generous superannuation tax concessions and reduced negative gearing on property. Predictably there is vocal opposition from many public who form Turnbull's wealthy heartland support base. Also many Members of Parliament in Turnbull's own Liberal party are nervous concerning a possible electoral backlash.
- There may be a 50% likelihood Turnbull will hold an early election first (in March or April 2016) using a double-dissolution trigger. Then Turnbull would be in a safer position to impose politically unpopular tax measures which ordinarily are announced in the regular May 2016 Budget.
Factors important to Turnbullinclude:
1. The appearance of unity in his Liberal-National Coalition government implying good governance. Recent political corruption and consequent resignations in the last two weeks have weakened Turnbull's lead. His political "honeymoon", since taking office in September 2015, is over.
2. Turnbull still has strong support from moderates in his government but the conservative rightwing (led by usurped ex Prime Minister Abbott) may cause increasing disunity problems within the Turnbull Government.
3. Turnbull's Government is ahead in the Opinion Polls. But Turnbull's lead/popularity is declining with Turbull being slightly ahead (at 52%) of the ALP opposition (about 48%). By an ordinary election period from August-October 2016 Turnbull's Coalition may be less popular than the ALP. So it is playing on Turnbull's mind whether he should go to election now.
4. Turnbull does not have a majority in the Senate. A early election Double Dissolution could give Turnbull that Senate Majority so he can pass the new Tax Laws and other financial Laws more easily. The collapse of the rightwing Palmer United Party in the Senate (with key resignations) means there is a power vacuum that Turnbull's center-right Liberal Party can fill. Turnbull could win at least 3 Senate seats currently held by Senators formerly in the Palmer Unite Party.
So there is a chance (I would say 50%) that Turnbull will trigger in late February or March 2016, a double dissolution Election which would probably be held in April 2016, before the national annual Budget is announced (on second Tuesday in May 2016 = May 10, 2016).
This is where the February 6 - 7, 2016 "satellite" launch took place.Sohae Launch Center also known as (Tongchang-ri or Tongch'ang-dong or Pongdong-ri Launch Center) is a rocket launching site inCholsan County,North PyonganProvince,North Korea. The base is located among hills close to the northern border withChina.
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Airbus Defense & Space
and 38 North provided this satellite image(above) of the Sohae Launch Center on February 4, 2016. This is where the February 6 - 7, 2016 "satellite rocket" launch took place.
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An excellent commentary on the February 6 - 7, 2016 launch and North Korea's dual-use space rocket-ICBM program.
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Reutersreports, February 6 - 7, 2016. Parts of the report are:
North Korea launches rocket it says carrying satellite
North Korea launched a long-range rocket on Sunday
carrying what it has said is a satellite, South Korea's defense ministry said,
in defiance of United Nations sanctions.
...The rocket was launched at around 9:30am Seoul time (7.30
p.m. ET) in a southward trajectory. Japan's Fuji Television Network showed a
streak of light heading into the sky, taken from a camera at China's border
with North Korea.
…North Korea, barred under
U.N. sanctions from using ballistic missile technology, had notified U.N.
agencies that it planned to launch a rocket carrying an Earth observation
satellite, triggering opposition from governments that see it as a long-range
missile test.
…Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called the launch "absolutely
unacceptable", especially after North Korea had tested a nuclear device
last month.
"To launch a missile
after conducting a nuclear test goes against the U.N. resolution. We will
respond resolutely, coordinating closely with the international
community," he told reporters.
Japan had said that it was
ready to shoot down the rocket if it threatened the country, but did not take
any action to do so, Japan's NHK reported.
North Korea has said that
its most recent nuclear test, its fourth, was a hydrogen bomb. However, the
United States and other governments have expressed doubt over that claim." The Washington Post later reported:
“Both the South Korean defense ministry and thePentagon
said that the rocket, launched at 9 a.m. North Korean time from a launch
pad near the Chinese border, appeared to have successfully reached space.
…But North Korea gloated about its most recent advance
into space. It said it that it had fired a Kwangmyongsong-4 (the name
translates as “lode star”), a newer-model satellite than the one launched three
years ago and one that it said was equipped with devices for Earth measurement
and communication.
…The rocket went missing [assumed that first stage
plunged into water] from South Korean military radar in the sea near Jeju
Island at 9:36 a.m., said defense ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun, but the
Japanese government said that it passed over the southern islands of Okinawa at
about 9:41 a.m. There were no reports of any debris falling on land….”
COMMENT
The credibility of this event as a peaceful "satellite" launch depends on whether a viable, working satellite was launched. If a satellite burns up in the atmosphere after a few minutes, hours or days it is not a genuine satellite. The test can then be easily described as a missile/rocket booster test - generally for future placement of nuclear warheads on top - warheads that follow a ballistic path.
[Subsequent reports of February 10, 2016 indicate the satellite is not viable “the satellite was tumbling and essentially useless - just as happened with the
Kwangmyŏngsŏng-3 Unit 2 satellite in December of 2012.”
In any case a missile or rocket booster is a dual-use means of launching satellites or warheads. Much of the launch and guidance computer hardware and software is also dual use. Note that Japan also has a dual-use Epsilon rocket/missile program. Japan also stresses that Epsilon is a peaceful satellite booster.
China's 335 kg WB-LYP10000AHA Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) being developed for (or already in) China's 2nd batch of Yuan class submarines. China is also marketing this battery to Russia, presumably for Russian Kalina submarine use.
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The Yuan class (Type 039A or 41) diesel-electric submarine. The first Yuans probably have Stirling AIP (and standard lead-acid batteries).
It is significant that China's Winston Battery company (aka Everspring or Thunder Sky) has been developing Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for China's latest conventional (diesel-electric) Yuan class submarine. The Yuans carry numbers Type 039A or Type 41.
Chinese marketing of LIBs at: "Winston Battery WB-LYP10000AHA in large submarines"
"The technical information gives some ideas about the size
of the battery pack for the Yuan-class of diesel-electric submarines to be
equipped with an air-independent propulsion system (AIP) powered from large battery
banks.
The battery pack consists of 960 pcs of the
WB-LYP10000AHA cells making the total
energy of 31 MWh. The lithium battery is saving some 260 tons of weight against
the original lead-acid pack. With this pack the Yuan-class (B-class) diesel-electric
submarine can drive 3,300 nautical miles or it can stay under water for 800
hours (33 days). This indicates the average onboard consumption of the
submarine when not moving is some 38kW/h."
1. Does 31 MWh, 3,300 nm over 33 days look reasonable?
- 2,800 nm over 20 days for German Type 212A fuel cell AIP and
- 2,900 nm over a 30 day period for Soryu Mark 2s using LIBs.
PETEs COMMENT
The first batch of Yuans are widely thought to have standard lead-acid batteries and Stirling AIP. The "B-class" of the Yuans may mean the second batch/Mark 2 Yuans that have LIBs instead of (or as well as) the Stirling AIP. A December 2015 US report to Congress (page 91) states "The YUAN SSP is China’s most modern conventionally powered submarine. Eight are
currently in service, with as many as 12 more anticipated." So the 12 may be the second batch - maybe with LIBs?
As can be seen below China is also marketing submarine capable WB-LYP10000AHA batteries to Russia.
The specific Lithium-ion in the battery is LiFeYPO4 (hence the "LYP"). China's near economically exclusive access to Yttrium (Y) means China has a major advantage in offering Yttrium in its manufactured products. For battery experts the advantage of LiFeYPO4 over plain LiFePO4 is "additional Yttrium at the cathode of the LiFeYPO4 cells speeds up
electron transfer especially at cold temperatures". This would be advantageous for Chinese Yuans and Russian submarines starting their engines at sub-zero northern winter temperatures and then contuing through the cold saltwater of winter seas (down to minus 2 Celsius before the water ices up).
For sale to Russia http://winston-battery.ru/products/cells/wb-lyp10000aha (explains in Russian) "This site [dated 2014] is a project of the company IP Corporation, the official
partner of Winston Energy Group Limited in Russia.
Diagram above is "SPECIFICATIONS FOR THUNDER SKY WINSTON RARE EARTH LITHIUM YTTRIUM POWER BATTERY" and below is "CHARGE AND DISCHARGE CHART[S]". Diagrams and Charts are much enlarged here.
Contact Address is: Thunder Sky Winston Energy Group Limited, Thunder Sky Winston Industrial Park, No.3 Industrial Zone, Lisonglang Village, Gongming Town, GuangMing Dist, Shenzhen [a huge city, dubbed China's "Silicon Valley" in southeastern China!], China, Tel: +86 755 86026789/36615068/36615069.
COMMENT
Submarine Matters will devote much more attention to Chinese submarines and surface vessels, and also Chinese jets.
If Su-35s (with long range air to air missiles) become widely available to the Russian and Chinese air forces they may cause headaches to the limited numbers of F-22s (but F-35s and 3rd/4th generation Western fighters will help). See much larger image.
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In Comments for a January 2016 Submarine
Matters article Anonymous provided a large number of links and comments January 27-30, 2016. I’ve selected parts and made the odd comment in [...] brackets:
For the F-22, the fact that it's available in only
limited numbers will be a problem if we have to fight multiple wars
simultaneously, or if we get into a conflict with a power such as China, which
can field overwhelming numbers of aircraft. [however China has only
modest numbers of modern jet fighters compared to the F-16s,
F-15s
and other 4th generation Western fighters and many F-35s on the way].
"[The RAND study] analyzed a U.S.-China air war over Taiwan made the bold
assumption that every air-to-air missile fired from a U.S. F-22 hit a Chinese
fighter (100 percent kill rate) and that every Chinese missile missed the
U.S. F-22s (0 percent kill rate). In their simulation, the United States
still lost the fight. The F-22s ran out of missiles and the Chinese
fighters were able to go after vulnerable tankers and command and control
aircraft. A far more detailed simulation the following year showed the
same results. Even though U.S. F-22s were pegged with a 27-to-1 qualitative
advantage over Chinese fighters, their diminished numbers and the fact
that they had to fight from long range meant the Chinese had vastly
superior numbers and won the fight."
Hence, the interest in "missile
trucks" which can provide fire support for the limited number of
available F-22s. An early example of this concept was the proposed B-1R:
"One of the recommendations by RAND in its latest
study on Chinese air power, is to arm the B-1 bomber with 20 or more
Patriot or SM-2 missiles in air-to- air role to engage Chinese fighters during
a conflict in Taiwan. This strategy will
allow the USAF to engage a large number of Chinese fighters beyond the
range of their missiles and disengage before any survivors can react."
"As part of the Air-Sea Battle Concept, the LRS-B
could act as a large missile platform working in concert with the F-22
and F35. Both smaller aircraft have limited internal bay capability and
limited range. Upon confronting enemy air defenses during interdiction
and anti-fleet operations, the smaller aircraft could act as spotters
while a LRS-B defeats the initial wave of interceptors with air-to-air
missiles, allowing the F-35 and F-22s to retain their weapons and carry a
larger amount of strike weaponry."
Some of these projects will implode when it's discovered
just how difficult and expensive it is to build a stealth aircraft.
But eventually,
air battles will increasingly feature stealth fighters on both sides, which
will shorten detection ranges and increase the chance of a close-in dogfight. This
will deny us the luxury of showering our foes with long range AMRAAM shots
before they get close.
Once that happens, the F-35, with it's
poor dogfight performance, will be in trouble, but then again, so will
everyone else, since all these new fighters will have helmet-mounted sights
linked to all-aspect InfraRed Air to Air Missiles (IR AAMs) with high
off-boresight capability. This will cause loss rates to approach 1:1 no matter
what kind of fancy stealth tech the fighters have.
Of course other technologies, such as lasers and AI, will
also affect the situation, but it's too soon to determine exactly how.
As for the shape of future air battles, the only
certainty is uncertainty.
An August 2015 youtube of the French Dassault Neuron UCAV. Competition for US X-47 project?
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The following is all from Pete:
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV)
"The Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV) represents a more
advanced and deadlier offshoot of the tried-and-true Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
aircraft group." See examples.
The Northrop-Grumman X-47B may be the most developed multi-role UCAV so far, but much more development is required. A related project was the Boeing X-45 UCAV.
The General Atomics Reaper can be seen as the most developed and used ground attack UAV-UCAV.
The Boeing X-37 "Spaceplane" can be seen as highly mobile "surprise" spy satellite and potentially a bomber.
An artist’s
conception of Boeing’s UCAV-UCLASS which could perhaps first be used in the Carrier Based Aerial Refueling System (CBARS) role. (Courtesy US Naval Institute)
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The US Naval Institute (Feb 2, 2016) reported
a use for 6th generation UCAVs in a more immediate timeframe:
“The Navy’s [carrier launched UCAVs called] Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance and
Strike (UCLASS) effort is being
retooled as primarily a carrier-based unmanned aerial refueling platform — one
of several Pentagon directed naval aviation mandates in the service’s Fiscal
Year 2017 budget submission.
The shift from UCLASS to the new Carrier Based Aerial
Refueling System (CBARS) will be
made alongside an additional buy of Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets over the
next several years and accelerated purchases and development of the Lockheed
Martin F-35 Lighting II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).” Developing the F-35s and introducing UCAVs is a big ask for the large but tight US defense budget.
LRS-B or perhaps closer F-35 lead disposable UCAVs, such as the Predator C - Avengers (above) may be practicle in the late 2020s. This is called "bot herding". Good for contested air space?
The Chinese Everspring advertisement for Lithium-ion Battery (LIB) use by submarine carries the above photo - what appears to be a (or the) Type 092 Xia class SSBN. The description "48 hours continuously under the water of 1,000 meters for one charge" suggest the batteries are for emergency backup if a submarine reactor fails. "1,000 meters" is very deep diving!
"The Kalina Future - LIBs? ...Russia may be able to develop (through research and intelligence collection) Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs) for Kalina submarines. This may make an AIP step unnecessary. Russia may develop LIB technology jointly with China or receive LIB technology from China. China may already have a deep enough espionage network in place in Japan and South Korea (maybe also France and Germany?) to collect substantial LIB secrets." The comments that followed, such as from KQN, prompted me to do a bit of research. I located Everspring Global Limited:
"Everspring Global Limited is an authorized distributor of
Thunder Sky Battery Limited or Winston Battery Limited, since 2001. Thunder
Sky Battery Limited or Winston Battery Limited was founded in 1998, designing
and manufacturing dynamic solid-state Lithium ion Power Battery, which has been
applied patents over 26 countries and regions. With the features of smaller
size, lighter weight, lower cost, longer life and larger capacity, our main
products, including the dynamic rechargeable lithium batteries of 50AH, 100AH,
and 800AH, have been worldwide used for both industrial and military applications, such as Electric Bicycles, Electric
Motorcycles, Electric Cars, Electric Buses, Trains, Torpedo, Submarine..." [more at http://www.everspring.net/distributors.htm]
Submarine in China equipped with Solid State Lithium ion
Power Battery. Solid State Lithium ion Power Battery is safe and the
possibility of explosion is very low. It can work not only at low
temperature(-25℃),but also at 75℃.TS-LP5453B battery packs of 220V,500Ah
in submarine can drive 48 hours continuously under the water [suggest the batteries are for emergency backup if a submarine reactor fails] of 1,000 meters
for one charge. [with emails for sales to US, Europe, etc]
"The world’s largest lithium-ion battery plant,
a joint venture between
the Chinese lithium battery manufacturer Thunder Sky Group and Russian state
run agency RUSNANO, was
recently opened in Novosibirsk, Russia. Novosibirsk is a heavy industrial (including aerospace and nuclear) Russian city in southwestern Siberia which is increasingly into IT.
…The Liotech commercial venture has already reported to have signed a
number of contracts to supply lithium batteries. Chief Executive Officer of
Liotech Alexander Erokhin indicated that the
company has seen interest in Liotech lithium batteries from businesses in the
Russian military industrial complex..."
---------------------------------
[Comment - In 2014 China was the world's third largest Lithium producer and second largest reserves. Russia wasn't listed. But trade sanctions (perhaps targeting dual-use
technologies like LIBs) and low oil prices means Russia, with its lower value ruble, cannot ensure Lithium supplies for LIBs.
"The Russian
government plans to create conditions for a significant increase in
lithium production and lithium products during the next several years.
According to
Yuri Gerner, Director General of theNovosibirskChemical
ConcentratesPlant(NCCP),
one of the world’s leading manufacturers of the nuclear fuel for NPPs and for
research reactors, the majority of global producers of lithium products have
their own raw material base, which allows them to significantly save on
production costs, however Russia, to date, has experienced serious problems
with stable lithium supplies.
According to
an official spokesman of Denis Manturov, Russia’s Minister of Industry and
Trade, (a person, who is responsible for the development of lithium industry in
the Russian government), lack of the domestic raw material base seriously
restricts the ability of Russia to produce lithium products at competitive
cost.
The situation
is aggravated by the ongoing economic crisis in Russia and the devaluation of
the national currency – ruble, which results in a significant increase of the
cost of raw material.
...In addition to
the supplies of raw materials, a particular attention will be paid for the
increase of production of lithium-ion batteries in Russia."
A clear 2011 technical explanation of LIBs from Liotech, joint Russian RUSNANO - Chinese Thunder Sky venture.
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Eugene Gerden continues: "One of such
projects is expected to be re-launched by Liotech, a subsidiary of Russia’s
nanogiant Rusnano, which involves the resume of the operations of the existing
Russian plant for the production of lithium-ion batteries.
The plant was
built by Liotech in cooperation with the Chinese Thunder Sky during the period
of 2009-2011, while total amount of investments in the project exceeded 13.5 billion
rubles (US$300 million).
According to
initial plans of Liotech, the design capacity of the plant should be 400
million ampere-hours. Thunder Sky had
promised to acquire the 85% stake of the plant, however decided to leave the
project at the beginning of 2013. In summer 2014 Liotech decided to suspend its
production, due to a significant decline of demand for its production in the
domestic market, caused by the financial crisis in Russia.
…In addition,there are also plans for the
active use of lithium-ion batteries in the Russian defence industry, and in particular in the production of
unmanned vehicles and other combat equipment and weapons."
PETES COMMENT
So China (with Thunder Sky - Winston - Everspring) appears to have the intention, money and Lithium supplies to develop LIBs for submarine. LIBs as an emergency backup for SSBN and probably SSN reactors. This may be a step towards full LIBs for SSKs (diesel-electric subs) such as an Improved Yuan class.
Russia (with Liotech) may be the junior partner in a joint Chinese-Russian LIB effort. Russia may have the intention but not the money or Lithium supplies given its current economic problems.
Russia may, however, be able to barter its higher technical know-how (especially in nuclear subs and reactors) for Chinese LIBs or for more Chinese backing of Liotech.
Stirring Indian Navy recruitment? and Boeing sales youtube for India P-8Is. 32 seconds in P-8's electro-optical sensor detects a (likely Kilo) submarine's attack? periscope. Sonobuoys then dropped etc. 2:40s one of India's last Harriers fires expensive missiles at dinghies (serious need for Harrier cannon!). I wonder if Pakistan also wants to buy P-8s?
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“High altitude has a host of advantages,
including:
- fuel
economy,
- immunity from AAA/MANPADS [Anti-Aircraft Artillery like 14.5 mm ZPU
heavy machine guns and small MAN-Portable Air Defence Systems - missiles like Strela-2s]
- increased airframe life
- increased transit speed, and,
- wider sensor field of view/horizon.
About the only drawback is the loss of MAD
detection and decreased accuracy of sonobuoy drops.
[Sonobuoy drops] can be addressed by delaying
parachute deployment, spin stabilizing the buoys, and using dropsondes to
identify wind patterns at lower altitudes.
[On dropsondes see KaZaK Composites Inc’s Low Cost, Precision Aerial Dropsonde
Delivery Vehicle response to a US Navy 2006 project or tender? http://www.navysbir.com/06_1/184.htm
]
MAD is used for target localization, not
initial detection, so it seems likely the USN has decided this step can be
handled by active sound sources, either the multi-static active coherent [MAC] source
upgrade for the P-8
[The Multi-Static
Active Coherent (MAC) sonobuoy system uses a single noise source sonobuoy and multiple receiver sonobuoys. By using multiple receivers, the MAC system can theoretically cover more volume and provide greater sensitivity since the sound
echoes can be correlated over multiple receivers. This
requires a great deal of sophisticated analysis software and high degree of
operator skill to interpret results.
The MAC will hopefully promote P-8 ability to conduct wide area ASW searches.]
It could be these systems are NOT being offered
to allied nations (particularly India) or that allied nations might not have
the resources to upgrade their aircraft in a timely fashion and want to retain
MAD as a back up/stop gap. The only major savings of deleting the MAD boom is
relatively minor cost and fuel savings.
I'm not aware of diesel fumes being a detection
method since [Autolycus
on] the Shackletons were taken out of service. I'm not sure the USN ever
used the technique.
LIDAR might be viable in sufficiently shallow
water but it doesn't appear to be capable of large volume searches. I'm not
aware of any underwater search sensor using lasers in service outside of the ALMDS
mine detection system, though I know green lasers have been used for
mapping shallow water areas of coastline.”
