Advanced AUV/UUVs, Small Coastal Subs & Minisubs

Ghalib Kabir, on October 28, 2021, invited my assessment on advances in 1. AUVs/UUVs  2. Small Subs (up to 600 tons) and 3. Minisubs (up to 300 tons). The opaque and secret nature of all these undersea machines means my assessment is subjective .

As an aside Ghalib’s request was just in time, because I’m suffering interminable AUKUS nuclear sub (aka Aus-SSN) writing numbness.   

My necessarily subjective assessments are: 

1. The US has been ahead with large AUVs/UUVs for more than a decade - particularly with the Project Orca (was Echo  Voyager) and see my 2016 article. 

Russia's huge Poseidon, aka Status-6, nuclear warhead torpedo UUV "drone" remains highly secret technology. So, I can't assess how advanced it is. 

2. The West Germans led the way in Small Coastal Submarines (up to 600 tons) with the Type 205, 206 and 207/Kobben. Iran’s 600 ton Fateh-class seems to have been developed from, or been inspired by, those West German designed small subs. 

3. The Italians led the way with diver delivery vehicles (from WWII) and later the Italian Cosmos minisubs.  

North Korea's (Yono-class), South Korea's (Dolgorae-class), Pakistan's (MG-110) and Iran's (Ghadir-class) seem to have been developed from, or been inspired by, Italian Cosmos technology.  

The Indian indigenous coastal submarine (only at DESIGN stage, with a link provided by Ghalib to H I Sutton's Covert Shores artwork here) may well be a development of the Soviet/Russian "Piranha" (NATO designation Losos-class) small-mini submarine displacing 390 tons submerged. But then again is may owe something to the West German designed Small Coastal Subs (the 205s, 206s and 207s mentioned, with links, above). 

Strangely Sobering AUKUS SSN Sermon

“Bureaucratus Lex” in a comic yet insightful way, clearly knows alot about the likelihood Australia will mainly turn to the UK for any future AUKUS submarine (aka Aus SSN) program. 

Bureaucratus on October 26, 2021 commented below: 

Yet more AUKUS SSN Observations 
 
If deftly executed, the nascent Australian SSN program could meet the key force capability goals set by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) as provisionally approved by Australia's cabinet and endorsed by the loyal opposition Australian Labor Party. 

 
Yet I would bet an all-expenses paid long weekend at a Hyatt resort that this initiative will go pear shaped. 
 
There is little chance of Australian Labor Party (or UK Labour Party (thy are spelt differently!)) parliamentarians taking the risk/wearing the blame for a highly foreseeable SSN fiasco. 

Therefore, in my humble opinion, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison have less than three years, to conjure up: 
 
(a)  a signed bilateral contract, blessed by all three AUKUS partners, for the UK and Australian future submarine construction programs to be seamlessly joined, with Australia and the UK jointly building (and separately operating) at least eight SSNs of the same design each - including a mix of Astute SSN and their successor class, aka SSN(R) [due to be delivered first to the UK Royal Navy (RN) in the 2040s or 2050s.] 
 
(b)  live video of an impressive looking new nuclear boat, underway in UK waters, flying the Australian ensign 
 
(c)  a UK Treasury disclosure document showing rivers of gold flowing to the UK under a line item titled “Leasing Fees for HMS Agamemnon and HMS Agincourt from the RN to the RAN” 
 
(d) footage shot at Osborne shipyard, South Australia or Henderson shipyard, Western Australia of Australian workers cutting metal for the fin/sail or forward pressure hull of an Astute boat No. 8, and 
 
(e)  other proof of an actual (not projected) hiring surge at both Osborne and the UK’s Barrow-in-Furness shipyard, etc. 
 
From the UK perspective - without landing a whale of an AUKUS SSN contract, UK (own use) submarine production volumes are unlikely to support even the minimum required design and production infrastructure needed to produce SSBNs. 
 
It follows that the UK continuous at sea nuclear deterrent will eventually have to be abandoned, as nobody except France (oh what delicious irony) would be prepared to sell the UK an SSBN if the UK loses its current ability to build them itself at Barrow Infernal. 
 
RN leadership might talk Boris down from agreeing to gap Astute boats six and seven and wet lease them (with crews and full logistic support) to the RAN until Rolls Royce and BAE can crank up the tepid production lines for UK Pressurized Water Reactor No. 2 (PWR2) and Astute to get the eighth and subsequent Astute boats into commission. 
 
If Boris declines to agree to an urgent loan to the RAN of Astute boats six and seven, then Australia might be just as likely to abolish its submarine service (as Denmark did) to punish the RAN (and avoid a Collins SSK sinking after 32 years in service), than to press on to create a viable SSN force prior to the 2040s. 
 
Somebody pass me the popcorn, this saga is 'must-sea' viewing. 
 
Bureaucratus Lex, October 26, 2021, with some editing by Pete.