The USN will face a crippling SSN shortage by 2040, cancelling AUKUS Pillar 1.
Firstly, what must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 1.45 per year since retirements began in 1995. So the 18 active Los Angeles will all be retired in 12 years, ie. by 2038.
Firstly, what must be taken into account is the average rate of Los Angeles-class submarine retirements, which is 1.45 per year since retirements began in 1995. So the 18 active Los Angeles will all be retired in 12 years, ie. by 2038.
Secondly. average Virginia Block I to IV production has only been 1.2 per year during the whole production run from the early 2000s to the present. Larger Virginia Block Vs will only be produced at around 0.8 per year maximum.
Third and most importantly, the full rate production target for the 12 Columbia-class SSBNs is one commissioning per year from 2028 to 2040 inclusive. The Columbias are the USN's highest priority program as Columbias are America's most efficient and protected nuclear second strike weapon platform. The industrial effort to build one Columbia is equivalent to the effort to build 2.5 "standard Virginias" (Blocks I to IV). See page 49 "Submarine Construction:" at the Congressional Research Service's (CRS's) " Navy Virginia-Class Submarine Program and AUKUS Submarine (Pillar 1) Project: Background and Issues for Congress, Version 295" RL32418 of 01/26/2026 at https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/PDF/RL32418/RL32418.295.pdf
Based on American industry's lack of success increasing submarine commissionings since the early 2000s - the US will need to curtail Virginia commissionings. This is in order to commission one Columbia per year during the Columbia production period (2028 to 2040).
In the unlikely circumstance that the US will sell 3 x Block IV Virginias to Australia under AUKUS this would further increase the SSN shortage for the USN.
The Australian Submarine Agency, in a difficult position, and part-time Defence Minister Marles can do the math.
10 comments:
Hi Pete,
The head of USN’s submarine program recently stated that they intend to stabilise a production rate of “delivering” one Columbia class and two Virginia class boats from 2031.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/09/usn-sub-tsar-four-pillar-plan-accelerate-submarines/
Note that the UK government has recently announced that SSN-AUKUS will begin production in 2027, with “an 18 month build rate”.
https://www.navylookout.com/foundations-laid-for-major-expansion-of-the-royal-navy-nuclear-submarine-fleet/
The fifth Astute class boats, HMS Agamemnon, has finally just started sea trials, and took 13 years to build.
https://www.navylookout.com/royal-navys-newest-attack-submarine-hms-agamemnon-leaves-shipyard-after-13-years-under-construction/
Hi Shawn at 9/25/2026 4:06 PM
The Press Releases somewhat defy reality.
1. Re the Admiral's noble, career serving, intentions, at https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/09/usn-sub-tsar-four-pillar-plan-accelerate-submarines/
1(a) 26 Virginias in commission since commissionings started in 2004. 26 divided by 22 = 1.18 standard Virginias per year in their whole production run. This is not counting the greater industrial effort needed for Block Vs compared to preceding-smaller "standard Virginias' in Blocks I to IV.
1(b) Also this is not counting commencement building Columbias, each equal to around 2.3 standard Virginias in industrial effort. Given 2.3 per year - to meet the higher priority Columbia production quotas, there is a risk the US will need to curtail Virginia production for 11 years = 2030-2040.
2. ...UK gov recently announced SSN-AUKUS will begin production in 2027, with “an 18 month build rate”. at https://www.navylookout.com/foundations-laid-for-major-expansion-of-the-royal-navy-nuclear-submarine-fleet/
Yes "steel will be cut" on the first SSN-AUKUS, distracting from the realities the Brits haven't fully designed the hull yet, US haven't designed the combat system yet and the Brits haven't fully designed the PW3 yet for Dreadnought let alone improved-smaller PW3s for SSN-AUKUS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR#PWR3+
3. That's good news about HMS Agamemnon's sea trials. Its reactor piping defects (that have led to unavailability of all functioning Astutes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR#PWR2 ) have not impacted HMS Agamemnon, yet.
Final Astute, HMS Achilles, due for commissioning late 2028 - early 2029 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Achilles_(S125)
SSN building companies and project manager Admirals must be eternal optimists :)
Have a Good Weekend Shawn Cheers Pete
https://youtu.be/6W_XUKvFJRI?si=JT8gE05DUZukkfvh
Shawn C I don’t think the UK statement about “cutting steel” on SSN AUKUS means much. It could be nothing more than a start on long lead items that normally start years before work begins on the hull. E.g. turbines or reactor. The design stage was recently described as “midway” after five years. After last year’s PR stunt of HMS Agamemnon being “commissioned” a year before it started sea trials, we should not put outright falsehoods past them. BAE will be desperate to retain the SSN AUKUS contract.
Hi Anonymous at 9/26/2026 8:16 PM,
At the very least, we now have a time period that will be dragged up during UK or Australian Parliamentary Question Time.
The current UK chancellor, John Healy, was the defense minister who resigned during the Starmer’s government due to Starmer’s refusal to increase UK defense spending, so there should be some optimism that UK’s defense industry will improve in the coming years,
From French Ano
"Build rate" refers to throuput, as important is "cycle time" ..(for those not familiar with Industry, the time beetween the decision and the Navy commission of the first unit, the nth unit etc)
Confusing for a casual reader
Communication..? Disingenuous?
A rate of 0.66 unit /year is not extraordinary BTW
Hi French Anonymous
I think a submarine's Commissioning date (ie. when it is on the "Active" list in its navy) is most important. Two to three SSNs Commissioned per year are crucial issues to maintain USN SSN levels.
"Ordered" "Laid down" or "Cut steel" are quite the opposite - just political claims.
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete,
Retired RAN Admiral Peter Biggs seems to have read your articles (or had a chat with you):
https://www.navylookout.com/mounting-concern-in-australia-over-uk-ability-to-deliver-ssn-aukus/
French ano
The Fr gov. or N.Gr. have absolutely no interest in coming again to Aus
The least of its political priorities and having a fair bit of shadenfreude.NG is fully booked(also with the Dutch Sub order)for the next 15 years .The argentinian proposal for 3 scorpenes evo(full Li) is made with the brazilian yard in Itaiguai.The potential orders fromGreece is likely to be made there as NG and greek yards are heavyly involvesalready in joint production (FDI-class frigates)Morocco is also a much lower potential » hanging fruit »
Teams are also stretched with Indonesia
MDL in India is slowly loosing its expertise (processes,people certification,équipent) in NG way of doing things which is not making it obvious for export
Th key issue of any LEU solution with Aus.is the absence of a civilian N industry (front end and back end fuelcycle,people with the right training and planning a whole career after the Navy,political acceptan ce..etc.)This what LEU is all about
If the virginias are never delivered, then aus runs the real risk of a submarine capability gap. Aus would be relying on transitioning the collins directly to SSN-AUKUs. The SSN-AUKUSes are intended to be delivered in the 'early 2040s' with extra time spent testing afterwards before they're introduced into service.
https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/defences-collins-class-submarines-life-of-type-extension-planning-and-implementation (table S.1).
Currently the second Collins-class retirement (Farncomb) is planned to be 2040. So before the 1st Australian SSN-AUKUS submarine is ready, Aus would be down to 4 Collins-class submarines. The 4th retirement (Dechaineux) is planned for 2044. Depending on what 'early 2040s' and RAN testing becomes, the submarine fleet would drop to 2 submarines. Any delay runs the real risk that Aus will have 2 Collins class submarines, which isn't enough to satisfy the 'rule of thirds' to have a continuous submarine capability ready.
Of course the ADF is pursuing drone submarines and other platforms that can project long range power, but if the Virginias aren't delivered (likely) the manned submarine component will be shakey as currently planned and spontaneous if the SSN-AUKUS delivery and testing timeline is delayed.
Hi Shawn at 10/03/2026 3:00 AM
True that I and retired RAN Admiral Peter Biggs who wrote
https://www.navylookout.com/mounting-concern-in-australia-over-uk-ability-to-deliver-ssn-aukus/ write on many of the same issues.
Our main point oof difference is Peter Briggs hope France could offer SSN solutions for Australia. While I see France as having an even higher workload than the US to have spare industrial capacity to meet Australian SSN needs. Naval Group/France must commission 2 or 3 Suffren SSNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffren-class_submarine#Boats . France must then start and finish 4 third generation SSBNs (in the 2030s-40s) before it could build SSNs for Australia no earlier than the 2050s. Also France has bitter "Attack-class" SSK termination experience with Australia/Anglosphere - once bitten, twice shy.
The Australian Navy and retirees ignore a mere civilian's contribution to submarine issues.
Cheers Pete
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