Australian Counter-Terrorism Lawmaking

On June 4, 2014 Australia's ON LINE opinion published an article at http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=16460 that I wrote concerning laws and the perceived terrorist risks arising from fighting in the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars.The major concern being that amended or new counter-terrorism laws are required to take account of jihadis who wish to return to Australia or do return. Note - towards the end of the article some terrorism problems in Germany are described. I have slightly modified this Australia by the Indian Ocean blog version:

Australian Counter-Terrorism Lawmaking

Ongoing civil wars in Syria and Iraq are making the job of police and security agencies in Australia even more complex and daunting than usual. An increase in the number of young men going overseas to fight in these civil wars carries with it the risk they will bring newly acquired violent skills back to Australia. Other countries, including those in Europe, are also responding to perceived increases in terrorism risks. We may be of many faiths but we are Australians first so shouldn't be ruled by religion.

The Federal Attorney-General, Senator Brandis, discussed these issues with the peak Islamic leadership (senior Imams) on Wednesday, July 2, 2014. Senator Brandis said "The Abbott government is absolutely determined that the troubles in the Middle East will not have an impact of Australia's domestic population. We acknowledge that this is an important national security issue." Sheikh Saleem, a member of the National Imams Council responded that "It is a matter for all of us…to build a secure and peaceful Australia and this a very challenging time [. The] news that over 60 Australians are participating in war in Syria and Iraq is a shock to every individual Muslim in this country."

To address these heightened concerns about international and home-grown terrorism the Government is scheduled, on July 14, 2014, to introduce a range of proposed amendments to national security legislation into Parliament. This will be followed by more proposed amendments over the next few months. These initial proposed amendments concern: Australian police and security agencies' powers to conduct surveillance in countries where governance has broken down; powers to monitor and disrupt suspect computer networks; suspension of passports; and other issues. These represent the most major proposed changes to counter-terrorism laws since those introduced by the Howard Government in 2005.  The amendments are mainly based on recommendations of a parliamentary committee inquiry into intelligence and security. These are contained in a report tabled under the previous (Labor) Government last year. The proposed amendments also draw on recommendations in the latest Annual Report of the outgoing Independent National Security Legislation Monitor (INSLM), Bret Walker.

Checks and balances are important particularly over major changes to counter-terrorism laws, but it appears one check is to be abolished. While major counter-terrorism amendments are about to go before Parliament the  Government is recommending that (to save money and reduce duplication) the position of INSLM be terminated (see this Brisbane Times article). Bret Walker wrote on page 3 of the 2014 INSLM Annual Report: "The INSLM is not aware of any other officer, agency or "level" of government doing what Parliament required to be done by the INSLM Act enacted in 2010.''

Australia's concern over heightened radicalism caused by the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars has also been felt by other Western countries including those in Europe. More than 300 Germans and 2,000 – 3,000 other Europeans are estimated to be involved in Syrian and Iraqi fighting.

It is thought that most Europeans and Australians who are involved have used Turkey as the initial entry point by walking, or been driven, over the Turkish border into Syria. McClatchy News reports that since 2011 Turkey has not banned this movement of young men crossing over the Turkish border to fight in Syria or Iraq. Religious differences may play a part in this situation. Most Turks are Sunni, like most anti-government insurgents in Syria and Iraq, while Syrian and Iraqi government forces are mainly Shiite.

McClatchy News reports an aspect of what might be a relatively humanitarian German approach to terrorism issues :"Claudia Dantschke, a German specialist in Islam who tries to identify and counsel families where the young people are at risk of choosing the fight, says the official reaction struggles to keep up with the increased intensity of recruiting actions." She wrote in an email "The public awareness for the problem of young people from Germany joining the jihad has increased, so more families are turning to us for help." She says Germany faces "a massive increase in propaganda from recruiters for [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)]…[ISIS] have Germans spreading their propaganda on Facebook in German, in groups frequented by teenagers and on pages of people they identify with. The extent and effect of this radical direct approach is a new thing."

Anxiety that civil wars in the Middle East may result in violence here in Australia provides one of the justifications (along with communications technological change) for amended counter-terrorism laws. Australians shouldn't become involved in other people's wars. If they do it should be as a result of legitimately constituted processes of government. The comeback that our armed forces become involved forgets that Australia's leaders are democratically voted in by all Australians over 18 and can be voted out. There is also little risk that ours soldiers might commit violent acts once they return to Australia. Terrorism is a global fear that shouldn't impinge on our lives.

Pete

CIA's Operational Problems in Iraq

A hazard of life in Iraq

Only in American would a serious academic website like IntelNews publish an article about CIA officers in Iraq having problems talking to their sources, See the following IntelNews article by Joseph Fitsanakis of June 23, 2014  at http://intelnews.org/2014/06/23/01-1501/ :

"CIA ‘stripped of spies’ in embattled Iraq, say sources"

"The Sunni uprising in Iraq, in combination with the Shiite domination of the government in Baghdad, has drastically limited the ability of the United States Central Intelligence Agency to collect dependable intelligence, according to sources. 

Newsweek’s veteran intelligence correspondent, Jeff Stein, said on Friday that the Agency had been “stripped of its spies” in the embattled country and was struggling to rebuild its network of assets. Stein cited “knowledgeable intelligence sources” as saying that the CIA had lost many of its sources inside the government in Baghdad, which is now firmly in Shiite hands. 

Since assuming power in 2006, Iraq’s Shiite Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, gradually purged most Sunnis from senior government positions, thus shutting down the CIA’s eyes and ears in Baghdad. 

The intelligence-collection problem for the Agency has worsened since the breakout of the Sunni uprising in the west of the country, which has prompted mass defections of senior tribal leaders to al-Qaeda-inspired rebel groups. Many of these leaders were previously valuable sources of information for the CIA, which has traditionally had far more contacts with Iraqi Sunnis than Shiites. 

To make things worse, says Stein, CIA operatives in Iraq are unable to travel outside of Baghdad due to the worsening security situation in the country. Instead, they remain “holed up” in the American embassy compound and rely almost exclusively on “technical means” of intelligence collection (and, one presumes, a variety of open sources). 

Inevitably, the Agency is now much more reliant than usual on information provided by regional intelligence services, such as Turkey’s and Jordan’s, who still have agents on the ground in Iraq. One “former operative” who maintains contact with US embassy staff, told Newsweek that the CIA contingent at the US compound is “not being tasked to do a lot of stuff” and is currently “not doing much”. 

Another former senior CIA operations officer said: “the train has left the station”, implying that it will be a long time before the Agency can rebuild its network of assets in the country. But a current US intelligence official told Stein that, although the Sunni insurgency took the CIA by surprise, “Washington had a clear picture” of the situation in the country and that its intelligence “capabilities are intact”."

Something I had published on Australia's ON LINE opinion on Friday June 20, 2014 http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=16422 indicating "The US is neither all-seeing nor all-powerful. Australia, if it wants to be active in Iraq, cannot act alone so it must follow some country’s lead. With the US inevitably pivoting to Eastern European commitments (Ukraine) and Middle Eastern commitments (ISIS) Australia needs to contribute in some way to the shifting geo-political picture." :

Iraq: the ISIS crisis

By Peter Coates - posted Friday, 20 June 2014

The bloody progression of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) rebel forces to the outskirts of Baghdad continues with a wide range of outcomes possible. The rapid expansion of ISIS (also known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)) has come as a shock. This article attempts to present some issues that have received inadequate attention in mainstream media reporting on the ISIS crisis.

Although Islamic Sunni-Shiite hatreds have existed for around 1,400 years the Sunni rebels of ISIS are an unusually violent problem. This map gives one idea of how central Iraq is in the region and of the refugee (internally displaced people (IDPs)) problem created by ISIS’ advance. This smaller map is of the ISIS advance itself.

ISIS’ presence in Syria and Iraq is probably boosting the risk of international terrorism. It is Iraq’s huge amounts of oil, however, that differentiate Iraq from Syria. Several years of frequent suicide bombings in Iraq have sparked little media attention but ISIS seizing Iraqi regional cities and oilfields has rattled surrounding countries and is driving up world oil prices.

Unlike Syria, with few Westerners, Iraq hosts a large Western foreign contractor-government employee presence due mainly to oil.The UK Daily Mail reports that the US embassy in Baghdad's Green Zone has around 5,000 personnel making it the largest US embassy in the world. This may indicate that that US embassy is part of a huge diplomatic cocktail circuit or perhaps it has other functional priorities?

A powerful presence of Western government representatives in Iraq also responds to conflicting concerns of Iraq’s Shiite and Sunni neighbours. Iran has reportedly sent as many as 2,000 men from Quds special forces units of Iran's Revolutionary Guard into Iraq to boost defences against ISIS in and around Baghdad. This indicates how close the Shiite leadership of Iraq is to the Shiite’s leading Iran. It is also significant that Iraq has not protested against Syrian airstrikes launched by Syria’s Shiite government against ISIS convoys actually within Iraq (near the town of Al Qaim).

Sunni dominated governments, including Saudi Arabia and smaller Arab Gulf states, are nervous that regionally powerful Iranian forces may combine with Iraq’s to present a large Shiite military threat. Hence ISIS is semi-openly recruiting in Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s neighbours and the international economy generally are also concerned about rapid fluctuations in world oil price and production levels caused by the ISIS crisis.

It is unclear whether US military activity concerning Iraq will mainly be an airstrike or evacuation mission (or both). Iraq’s Sunni dominated neighbours may well decide not to host any US aircraft or drones that might kill ISIS Sunni rebels. To adjust to this limitation the US military reports that a US fleet is now sitting in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf. This fleet consists of: the carrier USS George H.W. Bush (helicopters for evacuation, strike aircraft and intelligence collection); the cruiser USS Philippine Sea (able to fire at least 122 cruise missiles); and three destroyers each able to fire 90 cruise missiles. Also in the fleet is the USS Mesa Verde an amphibious warship that can carry 800 marines, helicopters and Osprey tilt rotorcraft. The Age has published an article presenting eight military options Obama might be considering.

Baghdad’s location might make a Western evacuation by helicopter or road difficult. Baghdad is a 1,200 km round trip from the US fleet in the Persian Gulf and alternatively it would be a long trip by road south to Kuwait or Saudi Arabia. Baghdad is however a short road or helicopter trip to the Iranian border, hence Western talks with Iran probably include evacuation scenarios.

It was unclear whether Abbott’s comments relating to Iraq (when he met President Obama several days ago) ran too far in advance of any consultation with the Australian public, Parliament or Abbott’s own party room (see this youtube). How Australia could aid any US military or evacuation effort is a question mark. Australian assistance might be in the shape of use of one of Australia’s new E-7A Wedgetail aircraft for force communication or one of our Orions to gather intelligence. If the Iraq crisis runs into weeks or months the deployment of one of our ANZAC frigates might contribute to the US fleet effort. Some Australian army special forces might also be sent to contribute to the protection force [written before the Australian Government announced it was sending 30 SAS to Baghdad as a protection force] for the Western community in Baghdad’s Green Zone.

In the last 48 hours Iraq has formerly asked the US to launch airstrikes against ISIS. Critics from the right and left will damn the US for anything it does or doesn’t do. The US is neither all-seeing nor all-powerful. Australia, if it wants to be active in Iraq, cannot act alone so it must follow some country’s lead. With the US inevitably pivoting to Eastern European commitments (Ukraine) and Middle Eastern commitments (ISIS) Australia needs to contribute in some way to the shifting geo-political picture.

Pete