Gessler on March 14, 2026, commented:
As
for Iran, while it's a possibility that China may have supplied them advanced
AAMs (like Iran's Fakour-90) it should be noted that unlike Pakistan, Iran does not have any Airborne
Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) aircraft that are necessary to take
full advantage of extended-range AAMs by providing targeting cues for fighters
carrying those AAMs.
SAMs remain a threat but it seems the US & Israel have conducted an
extensive SEAD/DEAD campaign before bringing any of their aircraft into or near
Iran's airspace. But from what I'm gathering, they have only obtained air
superiority/air dominance over limited sections of Iranian airspace...which
implies Iranian SAMs are still active in other parts of the country.
Iran already operates the older Russian S-300 system which has long-range
capabilities as well. So even without any Iranian S-400s (or maybe they have?) coming in, any
airborne activity near Iran is under threat - despite the fact Iran's
target-acquisition capabilities may have already been degraded significantly.
I'd say the threat to allied aircraft is actually more on the ground. Iran's
drone strikes with Shahed-136 and other models have been relentless and have
successfully achieved saturation effects against US military bases at several
locations. US expensive & hard-to-replace assets like the AN/FPS-132 early
warning radar & AN/TPY-2 radars used by THAAD batteries have been damaged
and/or destroyed at multiple sites.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/iranian-attacks-on-critical-missile-defense-radars-are-a-wake-up-call
Recently, up to five USAF KC-135 tankers were supposedly struck by Iranian
drones when parked at the Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia (much farther
from Iran than UAE):
Contradictory reports https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-missile-strike-kc135-saudi-arabia-us-airpower-logistics-prince-sultan-air-base/ and https://www.jpost.com/international/article-889882
Smaller aircraft like fighters have some provision for Hardened Aircraft
Shelters (HAS) that can protect against the effects of most drone attacks. But larger force-multiplier aircraft like KC-135 refuelers or E-3 AWACS (or indeed
the Australian E-7 Wedgetails) don't have this luxury and therefore remain
uniquely vulnerable to Iranian drones and missiles.
The USAF seems to have now evacuated a lot of their vulnerable assets like the
aforementioned KC-135s to bases in Europe:
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/us-evacuates-kc135-tankers-prince-sultan-air-base-iran-missile-threat-gulf/
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