December 11, 2025

Colby AUKUS Review: Australian Undertakings

As I predicted on June 12, 2025 the overt public "results” of Elbridge Colby’s AUKUS Submarine Review are so ambiguous as to be non-existent. The America First transactional approach has been maintained.

Hegseth, Rubio, Marles and Wong, who met last week to discuss the issue, waited until the end of year to avoid Australian public scrutiny. The "results" were apparently “full steam ahead” from all four pollies. 

My moles advise that the hidden results of the AUKUS Submarine Review are chiefly, Australia resolves:

  • to gift the US A$2.5 Billion per year from 2026 until the 2040s, ie. until Australia has acquired 3 Virginia SSNs. The purchase price per Virginia, spares and training, etc, are extra, and
  • to adhere to US strategic directions and chain of command regarding the tasking of US Virginias delivered to Australia.

The fact that Australia’s part-time Defence Minister, Richard Marles, chooses to keep the AUKUS Submarine Review secret speaks volumes. Clearly Marles’ act hides his embarrassment.

However, as a special service to readers, I draw attention to my article 3rd Priority AUKUS Virginias for Australia: Columbias Top Priority... of December 2, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/12/3rd-priority-aukus-virginias-for.htmlWhich explains:

"In Australia many Australian civilian and naval interests are relying on AUKUS Pillar 1 submarine program keeping to the US deliver a Second-Hand Virginia to Australia by 2032 schedule.

However, it is more likely the first Virginia for Australia will be in 2046 due to the calculations below on the delayed, higher priority, Columbia-class SSBN program which shares supply chains, shipyards and work forces with the third priority Virginia program."

So the Australian Submarine Agency is worried by the prospect of a multi-$Billion Virginia non-delivery embarrassment to become apparent in the early 2030s. Marles, the very model of a modern major politician, will have moved from his part-time defence responsibility to higher, better paid pastures.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Some balanced, accurate observations Pete, that go beyond the shallow sloganeering of politicians on both sides of the Pacific.