However, it is more likely the first Virginia for Australia will be in 2046 due to the calculations below on the delayed, higher priority, Columbia-class SSBN program which shares supply chains, shipyards and work forces with the third priority Virginia program.
The production of 1.1 “standard” Virginias per year is likely to reduce to 0.8 Block Vs per year (ie. one every 15 months) starting with the Block V USS Oklahoma's expected commissioning in 2030-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class .
There is also competition from the second priority, delayed - Ford-class carrier construction program at HII's submarine/shipyard complex in thee state of Virginia.
The measuring stick of "deliveries" of Columbias doesn't mean actual commissioning of Columbias. First of class (Columbia) may experience 3 years of pre-commissioning tests (and bug fixing) after delivery to the USN.
In early 2025 USN Rear Adm. Todd Weeks, Program Executive Officer for Strategic Submarines advised the 12 Columbia class delivery or commissioning(?) is to be:
USS Columbia (SSBN-826) in 2029
USS Wisconsin (SSBN-827) in 2032
USS Groton (SSBN-828) in 2034
From USS Grotton Columbia-class delivery will optimistically be one SSBN per year, hence SSBN-829 in 2035.
The one SSBN per year drumbeat will mean less than one standard Virginia delivered per year. So then to the rest of the Columbias:
SSBN-830 2036
SSBN-831 2037
SSBN-832 2038
SSBN-833 2039
SSBN-834 2040
SSBN-835 2041
SSBN-836 2042
SSBN-837 2043
It is only after the top priority Columbias are completed that (from 2044) a few years of 2 to 3 Virginias constructed per year may permit one used Virginia to Australia in 2046.
More details: “Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress: Updated September 25, 2025 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov CRN R41129 https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/26173199-columbiaprogramcrs/ “
So the first Virginia Australia is likely to receive is one Very second-hand one in 2046.
The UK’s SSN-AUKUS development schedule is likely even more delayed given the UKs chronic problems with the PWR2 reactor and piping corrosion and how to avoid this in a miniaturised PWR3 for SSN-AUKUS.
10 comments:
Beyond the Columbia SSBNs:
"Following the last planned Columbia delivery in the 2040s – SSBN-838 set to
replace USS Louisiana (SSBN-783) – the Navy wants to continue to build large-
diameter submarines for a variety of missions.
Under the Navy’s long-range shipbuilding plan, it intends to take delivery of the
first large payload submarine in 2049, but the requirements for that hull are far
from set. The Navy is trying to avoid a lull in building larger submarines after
the $186 billion Columbia program – like it experienced following the end of
the Ohio boats in the late 1990s – and send a demand signal to industry to
maintain a workforce capable of building large submarines. The service has
not yet determined the cadence between hulls in future submarines after the
Columbia-class program."
See:
https://news.usni.org/2023/11/08/navy-mulling-large-diameter-subs-hulls-after-12-columbias-ssnx-requirements-due-next-year
&
https://www.twz.com/24804/navy-plans-for-large-payload-subs-based-on-new-columbia-class-to-take-on-ssgn-role-and-more
The Virginia sub program is having problems:
"According to a GAO report released in April, which found that Navy
shipbuilding is broadly behind schedule, “the Navy set a goal of producing two
submarines per year with the project completed by 2028. But in June 2024, we
found that the [Virginia Block V] program’s rate of production is at about 60% of
its annual goal—putting it years behind schedule.”
See:
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-navys-virginia-class-submarine-program-is-falling-apart/
Hi Anonymous at 12/02/2025 5:16 PM
By my count the 2023 https://news.usni.org/2023/11/08/navy-mulling-large-diameter-subs-hulls-after-12-columbias-ssnx-requirements-due-next-year article was written in haste - seen in its reference to "SSBN-838" which, by my count, be a 13th Columbia SSBN. Also it states "Newport News builds the bows and sterns for the Columbia program, while EB constructs the section." I think they mean EB constructs the MISSILE section.
Then there is the very old 2019 article https://www.twz.com/24804/navy-plans-for-large-payload-subs-based-on-new-columbia-class-to-take-on-ssgn-role-and-more
Much has happened since 2019 and 2023. I think there's emphasis on building Virginias with the extended Block V's being the main SSGNs, including for Hypersonic cruise missiles, possibly using their rear 4 VLS for special forces stores and even XLUUVs for seabed warfare.
I just Googled "Large Payload Submarines" which again brings up the Block Vs (mainly larger payload HORIZONTALLY) rather than Columbia sized SSGNs (which would be built at the cost of worsening the USN's chronic SSN shortage).
Also, since 2023 there has been more discussion of building at least 10 Virginia Block VIs and delaying the SSN(X) build. Much uncertainty - see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Future_acquisitions
Cheers Pete
US ambassador to Singapore outlines that “Singapore’s prosperity was underwritten by the US, and it’s time to rebalance” while failing to address the 10% tariffs placed on Singapore products when Singapore has a trade deficit with the US.
This commentary should make the turning point of Singapore-US relationships, as appointing an Ambassador with zero diplomatic experience underlines Trump’s regard for Singapore and its free trade agreements.
There are other fish swimming in the sea, after all. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/us-ambassador-singapore-anjani-sinha-interview-america-first-trade-5531486
Hi Anonymous at 12/04/2025 7:49 AM
All the confusion and projected slowdown in Block V productivity and increased Columbia SSBN production, makes delivery of the first operational Virginia delivery to Australia in 2032 a deluded AUKUS-Australian dream not made possible by the reality of the USN's chronic shortage of SSNs.
Cheers Pete
Hi Shawn at 12/04/2025 10:24 PM
Dr Anjani Sinha comments are typical of Toad Trump's belief that America First means courting strongmen (principally Putin) while taking allies and alliances for granted (except for Toad's bromance with Netanyahu).
I looked up what kind of Doctor Sinha is. He's an orthopaedic surgeon with not a diplomatic bone in his body.
He reportedly donated US$4,500 to the Trump 2024 campaign. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anjani_Sinha
So he bought his Ambassadorship remarkably cheaply.
I realize Singapore, like Australia, has paid many $Billions over the years buying weapons at high prices from the US. So the US benefitted greatly politically and commercially from relations with our countries.
Meanwhile the US still only has a Chargé d’affaires (No Ambassador) in Australia. Though that may spare us having an ambassadorial Moron.
Cheers Pete
It’s not so cheap, he’s got membership to Mar a Largo.. guess letting Trump beat/cheat you in a golf game pays dividends.
Singapore’s government tends to take a long view on things, but crap like this niggles. Give Dr. Sinha more time, and I’m sure he will do something to damage Singapore’s ’face’. Like calling Singapore a US stodge at an international event.
Could be worse. US War Secretary, Pete HogsBreath, could authorize the murder of boatmen in the Indo-Pacific...then blame USN Admirals for carrying out his orders.
Oh yes, they are now squirming about using two guided missiles in a second attack on a boat that was cut in half, and two people clinging onto its remains for 41 minutes.
If a JAG really told his boss that it was justified, said JAG officer can testify for himself at their ICC hearing.
Unfortunately money and nuclear weapons buy US, Russian, Israeli and PRC exceptionalism - meaning they don't recognize the Rome Statute/International Criminal Court (ICC).
So Toad (his buddies Putin and Netanyahu) and Hogsbreath deem themselves above international law. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_parties_to_the_Rome_Statute#Signatories_which_have_not_ratified
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